Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 23°C on June 6?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2e5cadb2962efebbd212cb4cec4cfcaab3f19f140c7a645ce598cb2f7b4cd413
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $5,160
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $6,044
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,160 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 41 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 45c | 511.37$232 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$232.31 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x11fc…8262backed Yes | 73c | 273.95$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$199.98 | 379 | 42.2%160 W · 219 L | -14.0wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfd6e…4409backed No | 44c | 265.7$117 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$148.4 | 26 | 50%13 W · 13 L | +2.6wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | +36.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0f33…1ab8backed No | 43c | 213.9$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$121.89 | 27 | 55.6%15 W · 12 L | +4.6wins | +0.17per pick | 39cpaid | +48.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xfb69…06a9backed No | 47c | 211.94$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$111.94 | 142 | 52.1%74 W · 68 L | +8.1wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xef1a…319dbacked No | 50c | 199.68$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.68 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 27c | 126.75$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.78 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xedba…002dbacked No | 77c | 110.79$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.97 | 96 | 79.2%76 W · 20 L | +5.4wins | +0.06per pick | 74cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd717…3b85backed Yes | 22c | 75$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.5 | 2,050 | 57.4%1,177 W · 873 L | +72.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed Yes | 40c | 68.33$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.32 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdca4…e93dbacked Yes | 57c | 60$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.2 | 2,501 | 45.5%1,138 W · 1,363 L | +26.8wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb3…1367backed Yes | 49c | 59.99$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.1 | 1,554 | 33.1%515 W · 1,039 L | -66.6wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcf37…993fbacked Yes | 49c | 52.37$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.66 | 656 | 25.8%169 W · 487 L | -13.2wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -35.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd2ae…f36bbacked Yes | 38c | 50$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 227 | 46.7%106 W · 121 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked Yes | 29c | 48.99$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.21 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52dc…33c9backed Yes | 27c | 46.92$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.9 | 769 | 36.3%279 W · 490 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 46c | 45.34$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.01 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xd345…31c5backed Yes | 30c | 44.2$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.26 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | +25.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 24c | 43.9$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.34 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xebf0…2330backed No | 29c | 41.62$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.73 | 410 | 51.7%212 W · 198 L | +24.9wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x32b9…9a9cbacked No | 70c | 39.98$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.99 | 649 | 60.2%391 W · 258 L | -17.0wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x69f0…fb27backed Yes | 29c | 38.51$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.2 | 2,118 | 58.2%1,233 W · 885 L | +78.8wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2753…e28abacked No | 52c | 38.46$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.46 | 420 | 61.2%257 W · 163 L | +19.7wins | +0.05per pick | 57cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7c41…500dbacked Yes | 30c | 33.96$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 76 | 27.6%21 W · 55 L | -3.6wins | -0.05per pick | 32cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2467…2650backed No | 49c | 33.9$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.26 | 88 | 77.3%68 W · 20 L | +5.7wins | +0.07per pick | 71cpaid | +10%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8b8b…2512backed Yes | 46c | 33$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.18 | 2,093 | 57.1%1,196 W · 897 L | +71.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb537…14ccbacked No | 72c | 27.64$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.67 | 414 | 60.1%249 W · 165 L | -21.5wins | -0.05per pick | 65cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x42b7…abffbacked No | 51c | 26.86$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.16 | 306 | 65%199 W · 107 L | +14.5wins | +0.05per pick | 60cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9006…9fb8backed Yes | 68c | 25.5$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.36 | 270 | 37.4%101 W · 169 L | +12.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 60c | 25$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.9 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf651…86b1backed Yes | 60c | 23$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.75 | 61 | 57.4%35 W · 26 L | -3.4wins | -0.06per pick | 63cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6bf6…2529backed No | 71c | 22.33$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.47 | 238 | 45.8%109 W · 129 L | +9.0wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf6be…f6a3backed Yes | 72c | 20.83$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 299 | 41.1%123 W · 176 L | +20.8wins | +0.07per pick | 34cpaid | +19.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x38a1…3154backed No | 71c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.8 | 2,067 | 74.6%1,542 W · 525 L | +23.8wins | +0.01per pick | 73cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x164c…3e39backed Yes | 61c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.2 | 1,034 | 51.3%530 W · 504 L | +69.5wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +14%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 71c | 19.16$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.5 | 2,870 | 64.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L | -32.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes | 67c | 19$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.73 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc120…a7e3backed No | 71c | 19$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.51 | 1,299 | 54.1%703 W · 596 L | +24.7wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x41fa…7cc4backed No | 74c | 18.57$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.9 | 792 | 55.2%437 W · 355 L | +9.3wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9a96…cf5cbacked No | 73c | 17.22$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.65 | 51 | 41.2%21 W · 30 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 71c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.35 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 23°C on June 6?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 21°C on June 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 22°C on June 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 24°C on June 6?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 25°C on June 6?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.