Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 90-91°F on June 14?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2e626b8852eeb5e9ad5dfc3ad9934b92d6956c5da3b51e63b3ff27757e931b2e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $24,897
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $35,014
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $24,897 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 60 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xbc84…a0d2backed Yes | 1c | 7,000$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 106 | 34.9%37 W · 69 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +59.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes | 2c | 2,534$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.68 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 40c | 594.53$236 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$236.12 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 32c | 270.78$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.44 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xba63…36dcbacked Yes | 30c | 262.26$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.7 | 402 | 37.1%149 W · 253 L | -8.8wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 20c | 217.38$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.31 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xa8b3…9bc4backed Yes | 37c | 169.49$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.28 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | +0.9wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +15.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 37c | 120.07$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.63 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf7a4…f148backed Yes | 50c | 120$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.9 | 1,429 | 34.5%493 W · 936 L | -6.8wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked Yes | 30c | 116.31$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.31 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 58c | 115.71$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.2 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x906f…371abacked No | 70c | 97.27$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.6 | 2,495 | 69.9%1,744 W · 751 L | +80.3wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5968…3fc4backed No | 71c | 96.63$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.55 | 421 | 60.6%255 W · 166 L | -25.0wins | -0.06per pick | 67cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc24f…81d3backed No | 73c | 89.98$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.59 | 985 | 71%699 W · 286 L | +5.7wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd3b8…6983backed Yes | 31c | 75.9$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.85 | 874 | 37.3%326 W · 548 L | +6.9wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 63c | 69.62$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.91 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8827…5d62backed No | 63c | 64$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.53 | 1,772 | 50.5%895 W · 877 L | +43.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb395…522bbacked Yes | 45c | 63.33$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.5 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -1.5wins | -0.15per pick | 45cpaid | -45.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 62c | 61.33$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.5 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7b47…f1f5backed Yes | 30c | 59.96$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.99 | 244 | 34.4%84 W · 160 L | +10.0wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb0a5…0a36backed No | 57c | 58.39$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.11 | 2,086 | 51.8%1,080 W · 1,006 L | -45.0wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 59c | 56$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.86 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x94b1…27cbbacked No | 69c | 52.86$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.24 | 975 | 70.6%688 W · 287 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5757…9e19backed No | 65c | 50.7$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.95 | 451 | 62.1%280 W · 171 L | +19.8wins | +0.04per pick | 58cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc62d…5577backed Yes | 42c | 50$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.13 | 250 | 38%95 W · 155 L | +3.0wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8aa2…5a0bbacked No | 60c | 50$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 1,420 | 58.7%833 W · 587 L | +69.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 60c | 47$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.67 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa259…6597backed No | 67c | 44$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.47 | 995 | 71.1%707 W · 288 L | +22.0wins | +0.02per pick | 69cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 55c | 42.86$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.15 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x07cd…fbebbacked No | 68c | 42.29$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.53 | 132 | 74.2%98 W · 34 L | +6.0wins | +0.05per pick | 70cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8629…bdf5backed Yes | 31c | 40$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.57 | 128 | 32%41 W · 87 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 33cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 41c | 39.99$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.4 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f4a…f61bbacked Yes | 37c | 35.83$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.26 | 545 | 47.7%260 W · 285 L | -18.9wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6659…b7cabacked No | 63c | 35.48$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.01 | 938 | 37.6%353 W · 585 L | -14.5wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1ea8…d76ebacked Yes | 44c | 34.53$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.27 | 117 | 29.9%35 W · 82 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfddf…1686backed No | 64c | 32$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.44 | 641 | 67.6%433 W · 208 L | +14.1wins | +0.02per pick | 65cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x04b3…1b7ebacked No | 63c | 31.75$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.75 | 1,385 | 65.8%911 W · 474 L | +62.8wins | +0.05per pick | 61cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6282…aaabbacked No | 63c | 31.75$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.75 | 421 | 51.8%218 W · 203 L | -4.0wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb338…7a24backed No | 72c | 31.49$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.9 | 58 | 69%40 W · 18 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 71cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe9b1…79d7backed No | 66c | 31.39$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.67 | 889 | 73.2%651 W · 238 L | +20.3wins | +0.02per pick | 71cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 35c | 30$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4476…c5fcbacked Yes | 39c | 30$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.7 | 425 | 47.5%202 W · 223 L | -16.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf3d8…8f53backed No | 65c | 30$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.5 | 51 | 72.5%37 W · 14 L | +2.3wins | +0.04per pick | 68cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x11a4…f434backed No | 65c | 29$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.15 | 475 | 69.5%330 W · 145 L | +6.2wins | +0.01per pick | 68cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x35c4…d144backed No | 58c | 28$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.76 | 1,255 | 62.5%785 W · 470 L | +99.5wins | +0.08per pick | 55cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked No | 60c | 27.37$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.95 | 2,262 | 39.6%895 W · 1,367 L | -56.8wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 57c | 25$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.75 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x53bc…be7cbacked No | 68c | 25$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8 | 627 | 70.5%442 W · 185 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 71cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x567f…94b9backed No | 64c | 24.4$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.79 | 489 | 19.2%94 W · 395 L | -38.7wins | -0.08per pick | 27cpaid | -37.1%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf9cc…59abbacked No | 68c | 23.35$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.35 | 688 | 67.2%462 W · 226 L | +4.1wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9d88…3d2abacked No | 71c | 22.15$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.42 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.11per pick | 54cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf5dc…dec3backed No | 64c | 21.91$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.89 | 1,360 | 69.3%943 W · 417 L | +9.4wins | +0.01per pick | 69cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb701…8c1bbacked No | 70c | 21.37$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.37 | 120 | 70.8%85 W · 35 L | +3.9wins | +0.03per pick | 68cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x570c…91c5backed No | 59c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.15 | 711 | 59.2%421 W · 290 L | -9.5wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 60c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.1 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed No | 67c | 19.3$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.3 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x721a…9295backed No | 56c | 18.66$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.21 | 583 | 58%338 W · 245 L | -2.6wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xadd7…8622backed No | 65c | 18.22$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.32 | 177 | 66.7%118 W · 59 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 67cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7d46…f816backed No | 69c | 16.97$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.21 | 58 | 51.7%30 W · 28 L | +1.9wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ec8…99d2backed No | 63c | 15.88$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.88 | 833 | 60.7%506 W · 327 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 90-91°F on June 14?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 84-85°F on June 14?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 86-87°F on June 14?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 88-89°F on June 14?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 92-93°F on June 14?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 94-95°F on June 14?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.