Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 31°C on May 5?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2e81bb27ba254a3c4b0124bfdef89d71543994c9b5bece0ea18f2b92f3b2aeab
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $11,991
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $10,778
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,991 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 48 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1941…deeabacked Yes | 32c | 600.38$190 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$189.5 | 1,072 | 36.6%392 W · 680 L | +25.9wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 16c | 499.98$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.2 | 1,322 | 32.2%426 W · 896 L | -43.7wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 18c | 229.82$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.61 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaf17…5c20backed Yes | 8c | 207.32$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.98 | 1,787 | 25.7%460 W · 1,327 L | +132.5wins | +0.07per pick | 18cpaid | +50.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x64f6…15a2backed Yes | 5c | 200$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 81 | 7.4%6 W · 75 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 8cpaid | -58.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x834c…fff3backed No | 59c | 168.7$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.7 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.41per pick | 59cpaid | +68.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbbdd…b9d7backed Yes | 6c | 164.84$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.52 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | +1.1wins | +0.11per pick | 19cpaid | +90.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2e16…27c0backed No | 61c | 162.76$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.26 | 297 | 48.5%144 W · 153 L | +18.2wins | +0.06per pick | 42cpaid | +24.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x66a1…3de8backed Yes | 13c | 122.9$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.43 | 685 | 21.5%147 W · 538 L | +12.8wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa4e9…0208backed Yes | 37c | 121.48$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.54 | 89 | 47.2%42 W · 47 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc1a7…f77fbacked Yes | 9c | 116.19$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.63 | 180 | 38.9%70 W · 110 L | +13.2wins | +0.07per pick | 32cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6f46…77e8backed Yes | 10c | 115.36$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.14 | 126 | 25.4%32 W · 94 L | +9.0wins | +0.07per pick | 18cpaid | +45.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xeffb…f5e4backed Yes | 10c | 111.74$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.2 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +1.4wins | +0.17per pick | 33cpaid | +38.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfc0b…a782backed Yes | 16c | 111.62$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.54 | 515 | 37.5%193 W · 322 L | +9.2wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ce3…4291backed Yes | 16c | 107.79$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.65 | 2,165 | 23.8%516 W · 1,649 L | +83.8wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbefe…89c4backed No | 59c | 100$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.42per pick | 59cpaid | +70.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbd95…e333backed No | 60c | 100$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40 | 24 | 54.2%13 W · 11 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6690…e6efbacked Yes | 11c | 91.74$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.46 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7cb0…3ad3backed Yes | 16c | 90$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.15 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | +1.9wins | +0.11per pick | 42cpaid | +26.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0b18…2639backed Yes | 17c | 86.3$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 438 | 42%184 W · 254 L | -14.7wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe34d…41f0backed Yes | 44c | 80$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.2 | 121 | 47.9%58 W · 63 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xea6b…5ac2backed No | 63c | 79.37$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.37 | 534 | 37.3%199 W · 335 L | -29.9wins | -0.06per pick | 43cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x40b0…f139backed Yes | 31c | 73$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.38 | 297 | 40.7%121 W · 176 L | +11.4wins | +0.04per pick | 37cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeb00…5461backed Yes | 44c | 71$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.25 | 196 | 48.5%95 W · 101 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf9dc…1108backed Yes | 15c | 70.62$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.36 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -1.6wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f0…469cbacked Yes | 43c | 69.16$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.3wins | -0.42per pick | 42cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 70c | 67.9$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.15 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 79c | 66.83$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.34 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2936…6c5fbacked No | 55c | 66.77$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.07 | 342 | 50.6%173 W · 169 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 20c | 66.5$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.53 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x9d39…099abacked No | 62c | 63.22$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.27 | 297 | 51.9%154 W · 143 L | -6.2wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5278…5306backed Yes | 16c | 62.5$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 149 | 41.6%62 W · 87 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc8f0…835cbacked Yes | 33c | 60.54$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 109 | 37.6%41 W · 68 L | -9.6wins | -0.09per pick | 46cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9010…df3ebacked Yes | 18c | 60$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.1 | 141 | 44%62 W · 79 L | +9.0wins | +0.06per pick | 38cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6ec8…99d2backed No | 62c | 56.45$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.45 | 833 | 60.7%506 W · 327 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x724f…a426backed Yes | 37c | 52.35$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.37 | 60 | 35%21 W · 39 L | -2.7wins | -0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd035…f165backed Yes | 41c | 50.88$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.07 | 590 | 21.7%128 W · 462 L | -24.2wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -40.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1ab9…8ba6backed No | 60c | 50$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 304 | 42.8%130 W · 174 L | +8.5wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 38c | 50$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc3c…a384backed Yes | 34c | 43.25$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.5 | 39 | 28.2%11 W · 28 L | -4.2wins | -0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -42.7%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x40cc…9702backed Yes | 46c | 40$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.2 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb684…343cbacked No | 58c | 38.44$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.14 | 169 | 68%115 W · 54 L | +7.9wins | +0.05per pick | 63cpaid | +7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xed3a…3047backed No | 62c | 37.33$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.01 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -43.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2b59…9db6backed No | 70c | 34.1$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.23 | 1,901 | 55.6%1,057 W · 844 L | +7.7wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf6be…f6a3backed No | 61c | 32.38$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.63 | 299 | 41.1%123 W · 176 L | +20.8wins | +0.07per pick | 34cpaid | +19.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 75c | 26$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.5 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbad3…7715backed Yes | 43c | 24$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.32 | 56 | 33.9%19 W · 37 L | +3.5wins | +0.06per pick | 28cpaid | +36.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcf16…3a05backed No | 57c | 19$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.17 | 106 | 67%71 W · 35 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 68cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 31°C on May 5?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 28°C or below on May 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 29°C on May 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 30°C on May 5?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 32°C on May 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 33°C on May 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 34°C on May 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 35°C on May 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 36°C on May 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 37°C on May 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 38°C or higher on May 5?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.