Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 30°C on May 5?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa46ba50740fef7f262e1f51c51a9a0804e498b0d6bc40622e9e3a5b60369bec7
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $18,990
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $22,071
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $18,990 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 84 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2b59…9db6backed No | 1c | 2,857$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.52 | 1,901 | 55.6%1,057 W · 844 L | +7.7wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x86b1…c094backed Yes | 76c | 601.78$456 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$146.27 | 273 | 28.6%78 W · 195 L | -10.4wins | -0.04per pick | 32cpaid | -34.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1941…deeabacked Yes | 34c | 415.81$143 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$272.49 | 1,072 | 36.6%392 W · 680 L | +25.9wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a6…1507backed No | 5c | 241.91$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.41 | 2,626 | 54%1,418 W · 1,208 L | -56.4wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 69c | 224.82$155 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.53 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5964…35dfbacked No | 20c | 214.98$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.37 | 1,279 | 33.6%430 W · 849 L | -6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb06c…6961backed Yes | 48c | 207.61$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107.61 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | -1.0wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 32c | 189.43$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.91 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeb7f…0abbbacked No | 71c | 189.24$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135 | 189 | 48.1%91 W · 98 L | -3.0wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 22c | 185$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.15 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 11c | 151.32$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.84 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xd035…f165backed No | 25c | 134.57$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.5 | 590 | 21.7%128 W · 462 L | -24.2wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -40.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x015b…5bfbbacked Yes | 32c | 126.45$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.6 | 128 | 49.2%63 W · 65 L | +4.0wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 26c | 123.87$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.13 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed No | 73c | 123.02$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x94b1…27cbbacked No | 71c | 117.84$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84 | 975 | 70.6%688 W · 287 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x906f…371abacked No | 70c | 106.38$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.32 | 2,495 | 69.9%1,744 W · 751 L | +80.3wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5968…3fc4backed No | 74c | 106.37$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.23 | 421 | 60.6%255 W · 166 L | -25.0wins | -0.06per pick | 67cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7740…a03cbacked Yes | 20c | 100$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.5 | 74 | 25.7%19 W · 55 L | -4.7wins | -0.06per pick | 32cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc120…a7e3backed No | 19c | 100$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.1 | 1,299 | 54.1%703 W · 596 L | +24.7wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked Yes | 24c | 99.69$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.59 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7554…0b84backed Yes | 27c | 98.52$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.92 | 140 | 40.7%57 W · 83 L | +4.9wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa139…5bc2backed Yes | 34c | 91.22$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.59 | 112 | 40.2%45 W · 67 L | -6.8wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3878…2e5ebacked No | 72c | 90$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.8 | 37 | 54.1%20 W · 17 L | -2.0wins | -0.05per pick | 59cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7cb0…3ad3backed Yes | 28c | 89.97$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.78 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | +1.9wins | +0.11per pick | 42cpaid | +26.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 47c | 87.14$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.38 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x354d…eb8fbacked Yes | 32c | 83.93$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.2 | 701 | 33.5%235 W · 466 L | +13.4wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x109e…9a31backed No | 71c | 82.13$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.41 | 38 | 44.7%17 W · 21 L | -4.8wins | -0.13per pick | 57cpaid | -28.5%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 45c | 82$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.9 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4f73…a5f2backed Yes | 38c | 81$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.82 | 158 | 43%68 W · 90 L | -8.5wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa498…727bbacked Yes | 28c | 75.01$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.73 | 97 | 28.9%28 W · 69 L | +3.2wins | +0.03per pick | 26cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5278…5306backed Yes | 40c | 74.72$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.72 | 149 | 41.6%62 W · 87 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x40b0…f139backed Yes | 37c | 73$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.8 | 297 | 40.7%121 W · 176 L | +11.4wins | +0.04per pick | 37cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb70d…253abacked Yes | 28c | 71.31$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.37 | 151 | 52.3%79 W · 72 L | +4.8wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc24f…81d3backed No | 79c | 68.9$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.62 | 985 | 71%699 W · 286 L | +5.7wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 77c | 68.53$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.81 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5e5d…9491backed No | 73c | 68.47$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.99 | 308 | 59.1%182 W · 126 L | -10.3wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2cec…a79bbacked No | 19c | 66.04$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.55 | 132 | 15.9%21 W · 111 L | -7.0wins | -0.05per pick | 21cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4d21…b569backed No | 60c | 62.62$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.33 | 141 | 58.2%82 W · 59 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb8b…8e96backed Yes | 53c | 61.71$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.81 | 32 | 68.8%22 W · 10 L | +1.6wins | +0.05per pick | 64cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x53bc…be7cbacked No | 71c | 61.64$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.76 | 627 | 70.5%442 W · 185 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 71cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb684…343cbacked No | 64c | 56.19$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.01 | 169 | 68%115 W · 54 L | +7.9wins | +0.05per pick | 63cpaid | +7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 32c | 56.14$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.16 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa4ba…c5d8backed No | 19c | 52.5$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 251 | 30.7%77 W · 174 L | -9.8wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8189…d55dbacked Yes | 37c | 50$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.5 | 23 | 43.5%10 W · 13 L | +1.0wins | +0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbad3…7715backed Yes | 22c | 49.84$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.87 | 56 | 33.9%19 W · 37 L | +3.5wins | +0.06per pick | 28cpaid | +36.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x099c…18e8backed Yes | 24c | 45.55$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.7 | 48 | 18.8%9 W · 39 L | -2.3wins | -0.05per pick | 24cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6e10…b8d4backed Yes | 26c | 45.4$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.44 | 20 | 30%6 W · 14 L | -0.8wins | -0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc3c…a384backed Yes | 33c | 43.46$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.96 | 39 | 28.2%11 W · 28 L | -4.2wins | -0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -42.7%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd661…2750backed Yes | 29c | 42.31$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.04 | 880 | 28.9%254 W · 626 L | -2.9wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9770…d57dbacked No | 71c | 41.7$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.58 | 486 | 72%350 W · 136 L | +9.4wins | +0.02per pick | 70cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xae47…638dbacked No | 72c | 40.92$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.51 | 525 | 71.2%374 W · 151 L | +4.7wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x40cc…9702backed Yes | 36c | 40$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.6 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb9df…9571backed No | 71c | 39.08$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.72 | 211 | 73.5%155 W · 56 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 73cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x36ff…f2a6backed Yes | 51c | 36.71$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.1 | 621 | 37.7%234 W · 387 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6de9…a8e5backed No | 71c | 35.44$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.27 | 201 | 61.7%124 W · 77 L | -10.1wins | -0.05per pick | 67cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5d0f…085cbacked Yes | 64c | 34.2$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.29 | 616 | 76.3%470 W · 146 L | +92.4wins | +0.15per pick | 61cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 66+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xa708…9321backed No | 34c | 31.17$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.56 | 1,299 | 57.5%747 W · 552 L | +11.8wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb2aa…3e28backed No | 64c | 30.96$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.88 | 59 | 59.3%35 W · 24 L | -3.0wins | -0.05per pick | 64cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5aa4…fc3dbacked Yes | 33c | 30.91$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.71 | 277 | 56%155 W · 122 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb732…6900backed No | 53c | 30.56$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.35 | 412 | 58.3%240 W · 172 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd34c…f04cbacked No | 60c | 30$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 673 | 36.1%243 W · 430 L | -48.7wins | -0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 54c | 29.73$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.11 | 2,870 | 64.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L | -32.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf82…7513backed Yes | 39c | 29.65$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.09 | 29 | 31%9 W · 20 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3edb…aa1ebacked No | 69c | 29.36$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.36 | 169 | 68%115 W · 54 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 68cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe03c…c61bbacked Yes | 41c | 26.83$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.83 | 36 | 47.2%17 W · 19 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5005…620cbacked No | 75c | 26.71$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 59 | 61%36 W · 23 L | -6.8wins | -0.12per pick | 73cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9010…df3ebacked Yes | 68c | 26.26$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.32 | 141 | 44%62 W · 79 L | +9.0wins | +0.06per pick | 38cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 74c | 26$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.17 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x73dd…1f06backed Yes | 40c | 25$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 96 | 39.6%38 W · 58 L | -3.1wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5c38…f194backed No | 42c | 25$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 2,517 | 47.2%1,188 W · 1,329 L | +52.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2dba…5b01backed No | 76c | 24.33$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.46 | 57 | 66.7%38 W · 19 L | -3.2wins | -0.06per pick | 72cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc52a…e37abacked No | 75c | 24.14$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.14 | 182 | 72%131 W · 51 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 73cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x61f2…23dbbacked Yes | 52c | 21.02$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.08 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.22per pick | 42cpaid | -61.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6b0d…37a2backed No | 78c | 20.6$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 14 | 85.7%12 W · 2 L | +1.4wins | +0.10per pick | 75cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf5dc…dec3backed No | 72c | 20.51$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.77 | 1,360 | 69.3%943 W · 417 L | +9.4wins | +0.01per pick | 69cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad65…b49ebacked No | 64c | 18.55$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.79 | 77 | 71.4%55 W · 22 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 71cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe9b7…8030backed No | 74c | 17.67$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.09 | 125 | 64.8%81 W · 44 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2c08…724fbacked No | 69c | 16.66$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.56 | 60 | 73.3%44 W · 16 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 72cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2869…527dbacked No | 62c | 16.35$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.18 | 937 | 34.9%327 W · 610 L | -203.5wins | -0.22per pick | 57cpaid | -43.2%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 67c | 16.01$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.72 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf16…3a05backed No | 80c | 14.8$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.84 | 106 | 67%71 W · 35 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 68cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e4b…ac6bbacked Yes | 79c | 13.62$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.86 | 358 | 54.7%196 W · 162 L | -13.7wins | -0.04per pick | 59cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 30°C on May 5?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 28°C or below on May 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 29°C on May 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 31°C on May 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 32°C on May 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 33°C on May 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 34°C on May 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 35°C on May 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 36°C on May 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 37°C on May 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 38°C or higher on May 5?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.