Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 29°C on May 5?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4840e8a8e38734cab3e9f10aade8c14e174560af97d584cd76f048c5e48de728
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $66,794
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $64,911
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $66,794 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 51 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6b3c…d53fbacked Yes | 0c | 50,508$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.51 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeb7f…0abbbacked Yes | 3c | 3,336$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.65 | 189 | 48.1%91 W · 98 L | -3.0wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb4c…ad1bbacked Yes | 4c | 1,111$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x86b1…c094backed Yes | 16c | 469.13$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.76 | 273 | 28.6%78 W · 195 L | -10.4wins | -0.04per pick | 32cpaid | -34.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1941…deeabacked Yes | 56c | 375.75$210 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$210.19 | 1,072 | 36.6%392 W · 680 L | +25.9wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf56c…ad84backed Yes | 4c | 299.99$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 507 | 3.4%17 W · 490 L | -4.9wins | -0.01per pick | 4cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 17c | 224.08$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.11 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe019…f862backed Yes | 19c | 204.38$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.53 | 280 | 21.8%61 W · 219 L | +11.1wins | +0.04per pick | 18cpaid | +22.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 67c | 157.7$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.73 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd661…2750backed Yes | 32c | 155.02$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 880 | 28.9%254 W · 626 L | -2.9wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x164c…3e39backed Yes | 39c | 153.95$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.67 | 1,034 | 51.3%530 W · 504 L | +69.5wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +14%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xfcdc…57b3backed No | 75c | 150$112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.7 | 105 | 77.1%81 W · 24 L | +11.1wins | +0.11per pick | 67cpaid | +19.3%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xaf17…5c20backed Yes | 22c | 131.5$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.55 | 1,787 | 25.7%460 W · 1,327 L | +132.5wins | +0.07per pick | 18cpaid | +50.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3886…b492backed Yes | 18c | 120$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.6 | 561 | 18.4%103 W · 458 L | -6.6wins | -0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xed3a…3047backed Yes | 16c | 116.21$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.75 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -43.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb684…343cbacked No | 61c | 108.7$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.85 | 169 | 68%115 W · 54 L | +7.9wins | +0.05per pick | 63cpaid | +7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8189…d55dbacked Yes | 43c | 100$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.5 | 23 | 43.5%10 W · 13 L | +1.0wins | +0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc1a7…f77fbacked Yes | 28c | 99.26$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.56 | 180 | 38.9%70 W · 110 L | +13.2wins | +0.07per pick | 32cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe03c…c61bbacked Yes | 23c | 82.06$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.91 | 36 | 47.2%17 W · 19 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf58a…2a4fbacked No | 74c | 80.45$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.86 | 58 | 41.4%24 W · 34 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 46c | 80.42$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.52 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x714c…9c5fbacked Yes | 39c | 79.99$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.2 | 44 | 52.3%23 W · 21 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4e94…d649backed Yes | 40c | 73.38$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.2 | 35 | 57.1%20 W · 15 L | +2.8wins | +0.08per pick | 49cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x40b0…f139backed Yes | 17c | 72.96$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.59 | 297 | 40.7%121 W · 176 L | +11.4wins | +0.04per pick | 37cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0ba5…191ebacked Yes | 48c | 72.53$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.92 | 61 | 60.7%37 W · 24 L | +5.7wins | +0.09per pick | 51cpaid | +18.8%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5e5d…9491backed No | 72c | 69.44$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.44 | 308 | 59.1%182 W · 126 L | -10.3wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4d21…b569backed No | 51c | 60.53$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.42 | 141 | 58.2%82 W · 59 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 71c | 59.68$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.59 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb3d7…e878backed Yes | 28c | 59.61$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.64 | 237 | 43%102 W · 135 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5c38…f194backed No | 40c | 59$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.21 | 2,517 | 47.2%1,188 W · 1,329 L | +52.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x354d…eb8fbacked Yes | 46c | 56.9$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.9 | 701 | 33.5%235 W · 466 L | +13.4wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 78c | 55$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.1 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc8b2…7c84backed No | 54c | 50$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.13 | 110 | 38.2%42 W · 68 L | -6.9wins | -0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -17%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x36ff…f2a6backed Yes | 41c | 48.63$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.95 | 621 | 37.7%234 W · 387 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb9df…9571backed No | 75c | 46$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.29 | 211 | 73.5%155 W · 56 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 73cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8e37…9a37backed Yes | 23c | 44.2$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.01 | 63 | 30.2%19 W · 44 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed No | 62c | 42.5$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.3 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb26d…73f7backed No | 75c | 39.78$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.07 | 252 | 61.9%156 W · 96 L | +6.1wins | +0.02per pick | 59cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 67c | 38.21$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.52 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xfd99…76efbacked Yes | 52c | 30.3$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.76 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 58cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 40c | 30$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1c8f…de8abacked No | 60c | 30$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12 | 166 | 26.5%44 W · 122 L | -5.0wins | -0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 73c | 28$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.56 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae68…064abacked No | 78c | 27.08$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.96 | 2,555 | 63.8%1,631 W · 924 L | +38.4wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 72c | 26$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.18 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 59c | 24.57$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.08 | 2,870 | 64.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L | -32.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5964…35dfbacked No | 46c | 22.99$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.42 | 1,279 | 33.6%430 W · 849 L | -6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2ef2…faa5backed Yes | 54c | 20.37$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 428 | 49.5%212 W · 216 L | +45.8wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | +23%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a6…1507backed No | 67c | 18.77$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.19 | 2,626 | 54%1,418 W · 1,208 L | -56.4wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb6c1…a400backed No | 77c | 14$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.22 | 61 | 63.9%39 W · 22 L | +1.9wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x28f8…b5f7backed No | 79c | 13.78$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.9 | 29 | 65.5%19 W · 10 L | +2.2wins | +0.08per pick | 58cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 29°C on May 5?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 28°C or below on May 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 30°C on May 5?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 31°C on May 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 32°C on May 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 33°C on May 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 34°C on May 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 35°C on May 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 36°C on May 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 37°C on May 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 38°C or higher on May 5?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.