Euroleague · resolved market
Beijing Ducks vs. Shanxi Loongs
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2e89ce5677fef066f8b9633efc721c781e71521ffd385785437ddca5dfbe9a6a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Shanxi Loongsof Beijing Ducks, Shanxi Loongs
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Euroleagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $4,997
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $5,839
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $4,997 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 19 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Euroleague is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Euroleague | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9edc…b088backed Shanxi Loongs | 24c | 1,500$354 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,146.8 | 118 | 35.6%42 W · 76 L | +10.8wins | +0.09per pick | 26cpaid | +27%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Beijing Ducks | 74c | 917.67$681 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$680.58 | 542 | 51.5%279 W · 263 L | +25.3wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1e33…afb3backed Shanxi Loongs | 25c | 815.9$207 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$608.9 | 136 | 50%68 W · 68 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x84f7…ade1backed Beijing Ducks | 77c | 670$513 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$513.09 | 86 | 44.2%38 W · 48 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xefac…c9a1backed Beijing Ducks | 76c | 419$317 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$317.41 | 99 | 46.5%46 W · 53 L | -3.9wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Beijing Ducks | 77c | 288.99$221 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$221.25 | 343 | 44.3%152 W · 191 L | -16.2wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x95d0…04d6backed Beijing Ducks | 51c | 284.33$145 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$144.86 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed Shanxi Loongs | 28c | 98.4$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.71 | 122 | 68.9%84 W · 38 L | +15.5wins | +0.13per pick | 56cpaid | +19.7%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xf6a9…bff3backed Shanxi Loongs | 37c | 97.87$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.56 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.63per pick | 37cpaid | +169.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd6…ab3dbacked Shanxi Loongs | 22c | 96.15$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75 | 84 | 40.5%34 W · 50 L | +3.4wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x21c2…6749backed Shanxi Loongs | 30c | 86$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.99 | 97 | 46.4%45 W · 52 L | -2.7wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6132…7665backed Beijing Ducks | 74c | 79$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.46 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.54per pick | 54cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd6d1…074bbacked Shanxi Loongs | 26c | 76.67$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.67 | 30 | 43.3%13 W · 17 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +10%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b96…f098backed Shanxi Loongs | 25c | 62.11$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.56 | 72 | 41.7%30 W · 42 L | +3.0wins | +0.04per pick | 37cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x742f…d673backed Beijing Ducks | 75c | 60$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 56 | 64.3%36 W · 20 L | +4.6wins | +0.08per pick | 56cpaid | +13.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7f41…5cb3backed Beijing Ducks | 74c | 52$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.48 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +41.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77f3…f487backed Shanxi Loongs | 40c | 50.35$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.35 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3aee…19d5backed Shanxi Loongs | 39c | 30.35$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.44 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.18per pick | 32cpaid | +27.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Beijing Ducks | 76c | 20.34$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.46 | 314 | 46.2%145 W · 169 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Euroleague and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.