Tennis · resolved market
US Open: Jakub Mensik vs Nicolas Jarry
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2e8bc9bae4b183557084650c7e6984ba1815d4292b7580991c043077642e6bb3
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Mensikof Mensik, Jarry
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $43,228
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $43,312
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $43,228 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 39 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xea64…f2a2backed Jarry | 5c | 20,390$1,020 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,019.5 | 93 | 54.8%51 W · 42 L | +4.5wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +20%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4e94…6243backed Jarry | 9c | 10,037$906 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$905.55 | 178 | 33.1%59 W · 119 L | -7.4wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -32.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9e5c…d8e6backed Jarry | 5c | 1,288$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.85 | 1,090 | 35.9%391 W · 699 L | +16.2wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x644b…2145backed Jarry | 3c | 1,244$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.94 | 73 | 35.6%26 W · 47 L | -2.4wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -26%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x32a7…3e01backed Jarry | 30c | 1,000$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300.5 | 28 | 46.4%13 W · 15 L | +1.9wins | +0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2a4d…69e7backed Mensik | 70c | 999.99$700 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$300 | 24 | 41.7%10 W · 14 L | -5.5wins | -0.23per pick | 65cpaid | -40%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x9fa9…2491backed Jarry | 17c | 982.09$168 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$168.17 | 321 | 41.1%132 W · 189 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb852…bfaebacked Jarry | 30c | 701.59$208 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$207.75 | 296 | 34.1%101 W · 195 L | +10.3wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe83c…5e8fbacked Jarry | 30c | 625$188 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$187.5 | 627 | 42.4%266 W · 361 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Jarry | 15c | 422.71$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.71 | 11,435 | 43.4%4,959 W · 6,476 L | +17.8wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4b…5a92backed Jarry | 32c | 315.63$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 639 | 42.4%271 W · 368 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8b7e…6a9fbacked Jarry | 32c | 312.5$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 480 | 43.3%208 W · 272 L | -1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6c82…6150backed Mensik | 69c | 300$207 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93 | 316 | 50%158 W · 158 L | -6.5wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcdc4…a880backed Jarry | 32c | 300$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.04 | 66 | 33.3%22 W · 44 L | +4.1wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x48e3…c148backed Mensik | 68c | 300$204 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96 | 157 | 24.8%39 W · 118 L | +5.8wins | +0.04per pick | 21cpaid | +20.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x27db…5897backed Jarry | 36c | 277.78$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 28 | 42.9%12 W · 16 L | -2.0wins | -0.07per pick | 50cpaid | -22.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd9e0…05f2backed Jarry | 16c | 241.09$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.57 | 2,766 | 47.7%1,318 W · 1,448 L | +44.2wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfcfe…d420backed Jarry | 22c | 208.8$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 253 | 52.2%132 W · 121 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed Jarry | 14c | 195$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.3 | 1,107 | 42.8%474 W · 633 L | -20.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x92f7…facbbacked Jarry | 18c | 166.67$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 26 | 38.5%10 W · 16 L | -1.9wins | -0.07per pick | 46cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3c82…e0cbbacked Mensik | 71c | 140.28$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.28 | 53 | 39.6%21 W · 32 L | -2.5wins | -0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -25.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x96df…4caabacked Mensik | 69c | 132.24$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.99 | 260 | 39.2%102 W · 158 L | +3.0wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf80b…fa00backed Jarry | 30c | 108.73$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.55 | 159 | 57.2%91 W · 68 L | +15.8wins | +0.10per pick | 47cpaid | +18.3%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x5530…d38dbacked Mensik | 71c | 100$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29 | 629 | 52.1%328 W · 301 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x74e6…99e8backed Mensik | 69c | 100$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31 | 80 | 61.3%49 W · 31 L | +5.5wins | +0.07per pick | 54cpaid | +12.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd8b9…403dbacked Jarry | 30c | 100$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.1 | 22 | 13.6%3 W · 19 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -45.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e64…7308backed Jarry | 29c | 100$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 53 | 43.4%23 W · 30 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xac43…4925backed Mensik | 71c | 99.2$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.18 | 295 | 53.2%157 W · 138 L | -17.1wins | -0.06per pick | 59cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Jarry | 29c | 90.23$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.01 | 1,039 | 54.6%567 W · 472 L | +37.6wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5825…4ffbbacked Jarry | 29c | 81.58$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.83 | 58 | 60.3%35 W · 23 L | +5.3wins | +0.09per pick | 51cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd4b2…273bbacked Jarry | 14c | 75$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.14 | 66 | 59.1%39 W · 27 L | +2.0wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3823…2784backed Mensik | 73c | 68.49$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.49 | 321 | 61.7%198 W · 123 L | -5.2wins | -0.02per pick | 63cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x934f…5bd8backed Jarry | 22c | 63.83$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.04 | 42 | 52.4%22 W · 20 L | +1.6wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe64f…5976backed Jarry | 35c | 57.14$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 149 | 40.9%61 W · 88 L | -3.0wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x362c…ac6ebacked Mensik | 71c | 32.39$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.39 | 67 | 56.7%38 W · 29 L | +2.5wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8cb7…04d8backed Mensik | 71c | 28.17$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.17 | 141 | 40.4%57 W · 84 L | -2.9wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x25bf…7a56backed Mensik | 73c | 27.4$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.4 | 2,335 | 46.6%1,088 W · 1,247 L | +55.3wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4bf2…36abbacked Mensik | 72c | 20.83$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.83 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x742f…d673backed Mensik | 66c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.8 | 439 | 48.5%213 W · 226 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.