NHL · resolved market
Islanders vs. Capitals: O/U 5.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2e93defbe98dbcb181a5c47368264738eb0e50a14c24f3927d71bf0ecb16a933
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $20,066
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $20,281
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $20,066 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 39 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NHL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x3ec9…6287backed Over | 56c | 2,647$1,482 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,482.32 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.6wins | +0.31per pick | 49cpaid | +79.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xda2d…4c45backed Over | 56c | 2,268$1,270 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,270.08 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.15per pick | 55cpaid | -22%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5381…f063backed Over | 56c | 2,088$1,169 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,169.28 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9fad…5a9fbacked Over | 58c | 2,000$1,160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,160 | 895 | 47%421 W · 474 L | -18.0wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d3a…7b63backed Over | 58c | 1,807$1,048 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,048.08 | 866 | 49.9%432 W · 434 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x85eb…53d4backed Under | 44c | 1,800$792 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,008 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.14per pick | 47cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x784f…5caabacked Under | 44c | 1,751$770 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$980.56 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.17per pick | 49cpaid | +38.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeaeb…21e9backed Under | 44c | 1,329$585 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$744.24 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.14per pick | 47cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa647…bd57backed Under | 44c | 1,325$583 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$742 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.17per pick | 43cpaid | +51.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe32a…384dbacked Under | 44c | 1,322$582 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$740.32 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.3wins | +0.26per pick | 54cpaid | +60.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x309c…c79dbacked Over | 56c | 1,295$725 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$725.2 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9bff…26c7backed Over | 56c | 1,237$693 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$692.72 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.20per pick | 53cpaid | -37.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6f10…854fbacked Over | 56c | 1,210$678 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$677.6 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.17per pick | 51cpaid | -32%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1ddd…19c2backed Over | 56c | 1,150$644 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$644 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.17per pick | 51cpaid | -32%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5fce…e9afbacked Under | 44c | 1,136$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$636.16 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | +10%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9673…9482backed Under | 44c | 1,132$498 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$633.92 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.15per pick | 45cpaid | +47.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdb54…ccf3backed Under | 44c | 1,058$466 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$592.48 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.17per pick | 49cpaid | +38.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x900c…1d7abacked Over | 57c | 1,056$601 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$601.33 | 412 | 46.4%191 W · 221 L | -24.5wins | -0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf10b…6793backed Under | 44c | 1,046$460 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$585.76 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.11per pick | 51cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe792…4d26backed Over | 56c | 1,046$586 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$585.76 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.20per pick | 53cpaid | -37.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc93…f732backed Under | 44c | 1,042$458 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$583.52 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | +10%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbfdf…8e02backed Under | 42c | 1,000$420 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$580 | 348 | 45.4%158 W · 190 L | -3.9wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5137…1556backed Under | 43c | 973.41$419 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$554.03 | 874 | 47%411 W · 463 L | +3.5wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4231…f63ebacked Under | 42c | 670.02$281 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$389.31 | 378 | 47.4%179 W · 199 L | -5.6wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Under | 42c | 625.8$260 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$365.37 | 2,894 | 51.3%1,484 W · 1,410 L | +58.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xef23…5b60backed Under | 42c | 548.12$230 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$317.91 | 642 | 42.2%271 W · 371 L | -6.1wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d01…0ab1backed Under | 42c | 300$126 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$174 | 759 | 46.6%354 W · 405 L | -3.3wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8889…a9d1backed Over | 60c | 250$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 203 | 45.3%92 W · 111 L | -4.3wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc390…715cbacked Over | 57c | 219.3$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125 | 36 | 44.4%16 W · 20 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x14cf…594ebacked Over | 60c | 166.67$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 19 | 52.6%10 W · 9 L | -0.8wins | -0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x45d1…7017backed Under | 40c | 150$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90 | 84 | 44%37 W · 47 L | -3.9wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5b2b…d4d3backed Over | 58c | 100$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58 | 43 | 41.9%18 W · 25 L | -3.0wins | -0.07per pick | 49cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5cfe…ed69backed Under | 45c | 85.75$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.02 | 418 | 47.8%200 W · 218 L | +11.3wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb590…15d3backed Over | 58c | 60.34$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 481 | 61.3%295 W · 186 L | +21.3wins | +0.04per pick | 57cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcca0…5db4backed Over | 56c | 52.4$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.34 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.56per pick | 56cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3366…9979backed Under | 44c | 52.4$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.34 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.51per pick | 49cpaid | +106.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf102…1348backed Under | 44c | 45$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.2 | 780 | 38.5%300 W · 480 L | +23.5wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1f2a…f5ddbacked Over | 57c | 24.44$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 9 | 88.9%8 W · 1 L | +3.1wins | +0.35per pick | 54cpaid | +68.3%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xb7d1…4cb7backed Over | 60c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 77 | 53.2%41 W · 36 L | -3.0wins | -0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Islanders vs. Capitals: O/U 5.5this page
- Islanders vs. CapitalsIslanders won
- Islanders vs. Capitals: O/U 6.5Under won
- Spread: Capitals (-1.5)Islanders won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.