NHL · resolved market
Spread: Capitals (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xea1966061204b1421decc908f2914256e88935b97bb04b25db43f3b3a1318253
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Islandersof Capitals, Islanders
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $30,239
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $30,275
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $30,239 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 74 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NHL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xa0d6…b0f2backed Islanders | 54c | 3,322$1,794 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,528.12 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd5d4…8479backed Capitals | 46c | 2,788$1,282 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,282.48 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.46per pick | 47cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa871…5841backed Islanders | 55c | 2,137$1,175 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$961.65 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xda2d…4c45backed Islanders | 55c | 2,090$1,150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$940.5 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.15per pick | 55cpaid | -22%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3ec9…6287backed Islanders | 55c | 2,047$1,126 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$921.15 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.6wins | +0.31per pick | 49cpaid | +79.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe32a…384dbacked Islanders | 55c | 1,894$1,042 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$852.3 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.3wins | +0.26per pick | 54cpaid | +60.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2cfe…af2cbacked Capitals | 45c | 1,751$788 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$787.95 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 54cpaid | -19%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5375…aeeabacked Capitals | 47c | 1,699$799 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$798.53 | 588 | 41.8%246 W · 342 L | -20.6wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Islanders | 53c | 1,661$880 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$781.18 | 2,894 | 51.3%1,484 W · 1,410 L | +58.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf5c3…8769backed Capitals | 45c | 1,551$698 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$697.95 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa201…c304backed Capitals | 46c | 1,135$522 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$522.1 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.15per pick | 48cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x193d…5848backed Islanders | 54c | 1,089$588 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$500.94 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.8wins | +0.61per pick | 39cpaid | +170.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6499…b66cbacked Islanders | 54c | 1,069$577 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$491.74 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.15per pick | 52cpaid | +62.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf10b…6793backed Capitals | 45c | 1,054$474 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$474.3 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.11per pick | 51cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5fce…e9afbacked Capitals | 45c | 1,036$466 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$466.2 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | +10%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x420e…cd2fbacked Capitals | 45c | 1,026$462 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$461.7 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.2wins | -0.29per pick | 54cpaid | -52.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2158…b7efbacked Islanders | 55c | 1,024$563 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$460.8 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.2wins | +0.29per pick | 46cpaid | +74.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9673…9482backed Capitals | 45c | 1,024$461 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$460.8 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.15per pick | 45cpaid | +47.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa647…bd57backed Capitals | 45c | 1,023$460 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$460.35 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.17per pick | 43cpaid | +51.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaf2a…f17bbacked Capitals | 46c | 1,023$471 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$470.58 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.15per pick | 48cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb2f6…f970backed Islanders | 55c | 1,022$562 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$459.9 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +26.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeaff…d7cabacked Capitals | 45c | 1,020$459 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$459 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +1.7wins | +0.21per pick | 53cpaid | +53%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8bb4…f880backed Capitals | 45c | 1,013$456 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$455.85 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc3e0…900fbacked Capitals | 45c | 992$446 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$446.4 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.46per pick | 46cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1566…320cbacked Capitals | 45c | 951$428 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$427.95 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.21per pick | 54cpaid | -53.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2cfc…365cbacked Islanders | 55c | 950$523 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$427.5 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.15per pick | 51cpaid | +23.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5381…f063backed Capitals | 45c | 948$427 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$426.6 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc93…f732backed Capitals | 45c | 946$426 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$425.7 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | +10%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x34a0…5b83backed Islanders | 55c | 942$518 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$423.9 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.4wins | -0.35per pick | 60cpaid | -54.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2f3d…d45dbacked Capitals | 45c | 941$423 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$423.45 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +25.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe678…4c0cbacked Capitals | 45c | 937$422 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$421.65 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +25.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9c2c…3770backed Islanders | 55c | 936$515 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$421.2 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9fad…5a9fbacked Islanders | 53c | 891.38$472 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$418.95 | 895 | 47%421 W · 474 L | -18.0wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1761…31cbbacked Capitals | 46c | 869$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$399.74 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.30per pick | 37cpaid | +108.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ee…d891backed Islanders | 54c | 823$444 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$378.58 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.30per pick | 63cpaid | -38.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x94b9…2d7bbacked Islanders | 54c | 802$433 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$368.92 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.30per pick | 63cpaid | -38.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbc62…0dfebacked Islanders | 55c | 801$441 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$360.45 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc916…876abacked Islanders | 55c | 800$440 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$360 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.46per pick | 54cpaid | +85.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5048…dbc3backed Islanders | 54c | 778$420 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$357.88 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.46per pick | 54cpaid | +86.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb850…b580backed Capitals | 46c | 756$348 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$347.76 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.16per pick | 49cpaid | +1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe81b…5b93backed Islanders | 55c | 751$413 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$337.95 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x09a8…58a2backed Islanders | 54c | 650$351 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$299 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.46per pick | 54cpaid | +86.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x56c2…17bfbacked Islanders | 53c | 649.38$344 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$305.21 | 254 | 47.2%120 W · 134 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb1a3…ad63backed Capitals | 46c | 584$269 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$268.64 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8240…faa1backed Capitals | 46c | 548$252 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$252.08 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.46per pick | 47cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xda01…8f97backed Capitals | 45c | 524$236 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$235.8 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | +66.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x900c…1d7abacked Capitals | 46c | 504.36$233 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$233.47 | 412 | 46.4%191 W · 221 L | -24.5wins | -0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf47b…119dbacked Islanders | 55c | 501$276 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$225.45 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.10per pick | 43cpaid | -39.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x534a…b7f7backed Islanders | 55c | 494$272 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$222.3 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.13per pick | 63cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3735…e301backed Islanders | 55c | 450$248 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$202.5 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.2wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +68.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa99f…3d8abacked Islanders | 54c | 387$209 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$178.02 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.46per pick | 54cpaid | +86.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd20c…e261backed Islanders | 54c | 370$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$170.2 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.46per pick | 54cpaid | +86.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x20c3…060dbacked Capitals | 46c | 321$148 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$147.66 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x529a…d21cbacked Capitals | 46c | 303$139 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$139.38 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9d9b…c49fbacked Capitals | 46c | 300$138 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$138 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa313…55a4backed Capitals | 46c | 287$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$132.02 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x331d…c284backed Capitals | 46c | 256$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117.76 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.46per pick | 47cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa62a…8145backed Capitals | 46c | 231$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.26 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.46per pick | 47cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x553b…03ffbacked Islanders | 54c | 221$119 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.66 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.46per pick | 54cpaid | +86.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf848…9b7cbacked Islanders | 54c | 217$117 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.82 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.46per pick | 54cpaid | +86.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x84d9…76dbbacked Capitals | 47c | 212.77$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 485 | 52.2%253 W · 232 L | +8.1wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8059…c043backed Islanders | 55c | 199.7$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.7 | 366 | 52.7%193 W · 173 L | +3.5wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4080…e6cebacked Capitals | 46c | 157$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.22 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.46per pick | 47cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5a93…32a0backed Capitals | 47c | 150$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.5 | 45 | 35.6%16 W · 29 L | -4.2wins | -0.09per pick | 45cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x33af…36e8backed Capitals | 45c | 132$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.4 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.46per pick | 46cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6340…b1debacked Capitals | 46c | 107$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.22 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0fa7…b707backed Capitals | 47c | 106.38$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 59 | 39%23 W · 36 L | +3.2wins | +0.05per pick | 34cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf1f4…7942backed Capitals | 47c | 105.77$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -1.7wins | -0.18per pick | 52cpaid | -32.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbee4…af0abacked Capitals | 46c | 43$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.78 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f5…1caabacked Capitals | 44c | 41.73$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.36 | 479 | 44.7%214 W · 265 L | -25.8wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x033f…618ebacked Islanders | 48c | 38$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.76 | 182 | 62.1%113 W · 69 L | +15.6wins | +0.09per pick | 53cpaid | +18.5%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf102…1348backed Capitals | 52c | 38$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.76 | 780 | 38.5%300 W · 480 L | +23.5wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x02ec…5412backed Islanders | 54c | 32.2$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.81 | 175 | 53.1%93 W · 82 L | +3.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa2bd…3ccabacked Islanders | 55c | 30$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.5 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.2wins | +0.58per pick | 43cpaid | +157.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Capitals (-1.5)this page
- Islanders vs. CapitalsIslanders won
- Islanders vs. Capitals: O/U 5.5Under won
- Islanders vs. Capitals: O/U 6.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.