Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 34°C on June 12?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2eb26b77a4f0b77b0ab3e812f0104b3f27476feca27b5fd28af10215dcbb7e79
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $6,901
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $7,973
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,901 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 45 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xba63…36dcbacked Yes | 38c | 460.02$177 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$176.8 | 402 | 37.1%149 W · 253 L | -8.8wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 31c | 354.82$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.74 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf045…c619backed Yes | 40c | 252.93$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 180 | 35.6%64 W · 116 L | -3.7wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 63c | 199.48$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.51 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x77f0…2b1fbacked No | 72c | 160.5$116 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.75 | 3,028 | 49.8%1,509 W · 1,519 L | +16.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0461…fcbcbacked No | 74c | 138$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.88 | 724 | 66.2%479 W · 245 L | +33.6wins | +0.05per pick | 62cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x216e…4e32backed No | 78c | 127.57$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.57 | 40 | 65%26 W · 14 L | +2.6wins | +0.06per pick | 59cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x397c…ca1bbacked Yes | 36c | 125$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 1,285 | 32.8%422 W · 863 L | +24.3wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed Yes | 19c | 121.78$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.46 | 2,302 | 26.9%620 W · 1,682 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfcff…8528backed No | 62c | 121.35$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.55 | 61 | 59%36 W · 25 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7e0c…8b5ebacked No | 65c | 111.78$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.22 | 926 | 78.2%724 W · 202 L | +51.2wins | +0.06per pick | 73cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xeab6…d4c6backed Yes | 36c | 93.43$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.52 | 841 | 24%202 W · 639 L | -35.9wins | -0.04per pick | 28cpaid | -42.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb8db…458dbacked No | 76c | 89.25$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.24 | 24 | 37.5%9 W · 15 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -30.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe7c3…20e0backed No | 62c | 86$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.68 | 637 | 57.6%367 W · 270 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb0a5…0a36backed No | 60c | 82.44$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.6 | 2,086 | 51.8%1,080 W · 1,006 L | -45.0wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x40b0…f139backed Yes | 37c | 70$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.85 | 297 | 40.7%121 W · 176 L | +11.4wins | +0.04per pick | 37cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked Yes | 27c | 64.33$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.66 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x30fe…74bcbacked No | 65c | 63.5$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.91 | 186 | 71%132 W · 54 L | +19.2wins | +0.10per pick | 61cpaid | +18.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xce1f…0669backed Yes | 28c | 60.8$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.3 | 20 | 25%5 W · 15 L | -1.7wins | -0.09per pick | 34cpaid | -30.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 26c | 59.38$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.57 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 66c | 59.15$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.17 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbed7…a0fabacked Yes | 26c | 58.84$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.3 | 125 | 40%50 W · 75 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb664…abbdbacked Yes | 37c | 50$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.5 | 446 | 46.2%206 W · 240 L | -16.0wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x156b…5808backed Yes | 28c | 50$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 405 | 35.6%144 W · 261 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3c11…33c9backed No | 73c | 50$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.75 | 896 | 61.7%553 W · 343 L | +15.2wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe59d…b97bbacked Yes | 31c | 45.94$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.19 | 524 | 46.2%242 W · 282 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 73c | 35.08$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.47 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3164…3c65backed Yes | 39c | 31.03$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.18 | 444 | 65.3%290 W · 154 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6d77…a694backed No | 60c | 30$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12 | 1,160 | 57.3%665 W · 495 L | +20.1wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 61c | 30$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.7 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7fc0…7bf6backed Yes | 37c | 30$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.19 | 125 | 44.8%56 W · 69 L | -5.2wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf2cf…464bbacked No | 65c | 29.47$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.41 | 1,115 | 63.4%707 W · 408 L | +29.7wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa259…6597backed No | 72c | 27$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.56 | 995 | 71.1%707 W · 288 L | +22.0wins | +0.02per pick | 69cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x11a4…f434backed No | 72c | 27$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.56 | 475 | 69.5%330 W · 145 L | +6.2wins | +0.01per pick | 68cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a0c…a853backed No | 63c | 23.84$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.85 | 2,249 | 34.2%769 W · 1,480 L | +11.6wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x98b4…09b3backed No | 73c | 23.58$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.41 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.16per pick | 66cpaid | -31.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x82cc…d569backed No | 69c | 22$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.72 | 111 | 73%81 W · 30 L | +6.3wins | +0.06per pick | 67cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 60c | 21.93$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.77 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x236b…9b00backed No | 74c | 21.3$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.54 | 202 | 66.8%135 W · 67 L | -8.9wins | -0.04per pick | 71cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 67c | 20.01$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.66 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xef14…3edabacked No | 64c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.2 | 177 | 44.6%79 W · 98 L | -10.1wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5157…fdbcbacked No | 60c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8 | 533 | 53.1%283 W · 250 L | -8.8wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 80c | 16$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.26 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x32b9…9a9cbacked No | 70c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.5 | 649 | 60.2%391 W · 258 L | -17.0wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x558b…f41bbacked No | 67c | 15$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.96 | 286 | 60.8%174 W · 112 L | -15.8wins | -0.06per pick | 66cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 34°C on June 12?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 31°C on June 12?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 32°C on June 12?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 33°C on June 12?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 35°C on June 12?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 36°C on June 12?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 37°C on June 12?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.