Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 35°C on June 12?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd63e43e5a2cbe5cfe26232b0756e4587bc54b061bd527a9cbec0261df71a35f4
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $12,603
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $15,814
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $12,603 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 55 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf045…c619backed Yes | 34c | 470.44$160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$310.44 | 180 | 35.6%64 W · 116 L | -3.7wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xba63…36dcbacked Yes | 31c | 437.24$136 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$301.2 | 402 | 37.1%149 W · 253 L | -8.8wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeab6…d4c6backed No | 30c | 411.18$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125.23 | 841 | 24%202 W · 639 L | -35.9wins | -0.04per pick | 28cpaid | -42.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed No | 27c | 406.78$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.32 | 2,302 | 26.9%620 W · 1,682 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 17c | 259.99$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.4 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7dcf…a7bdbacked No | 22c | 247.59$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.02 | 1,586 | 61.9%982 W · 604 L | +20.2wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc620…7a70backed Yes | 20c | 200$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$160 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 31cpaid | +25%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb3…1367backed No | 30c | 196.63$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.45 | 1,554 | 33.1%515 W · 1,039 L | -66.6wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe4f0…6450backed No | 6c | 191.32$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.35 | 141 | 19.1%27 W · 114 L | -3.1wins | -0.02per pick | 21cpaid | -30.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2753…e28abacked Yes | 72c | 138.59$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.59 | 420 | 61.2%257 W · 163 L | +19.7wins | +0.05per pick | 57cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 22c | 133$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.95 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfcff…8528backed Yes | 23c | 126.24$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.2 | 61 | 59%36 W · 25 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x397c…ca1bbacked Yes | 28c | 125$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.5 | 1,285 | 32.8%422 W · 863 L | +24.3wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 58c | 124.58$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.52 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 66c | 124.26$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.01 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xafde…3e1dbacked No | 78c | 119.11$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.13 | 1,331 | 20.8%277 W · 1,054 L | +33.9wins | +0.03per pick | 18cpaid | -19%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 71c | 113.23$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.52 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7e0c…8b5ebacked Yes | 73c | 110.44$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.82 | 926 | 78.2%724 W · 202 L | +51.2wins | +0.06per pick | 73cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 71c | 109.36$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.18 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4d07…2b94backed No | 74c | 103.39$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.94 | 174 | 43.7%76 W · 98 L | -8.6wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdc0a…ccdcbacked No | 80c | 101.87$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.5 | 21 | 33.3%7 W · 14 L | -3.3wins | -0.16per pick | 49cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked No | 14c | 100$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.2 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 43c | 99.28$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.76 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x77f0…2b1fbacked No | 74c | 94.87$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.63 | 3,028 | 49.8%1,509 W · 1,519 L | +16.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x42b7…abffbacked Yes | 75c | 92.81$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.38 | 306 | 65%199 W · 107 L | +14.5wins | +0.05per pick | 60cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 78c | 86.45$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.49 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 22c | 83.33$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.31 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0a5…0a36backed No | 75c | 79.43$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.32 | 2,086 | 51.8%1,080 W · 1,006 L | -45.0wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x49c4…db5bbacked No | 53c | 75.96$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 1,275 | 36.5%465 W · 810 L | -15.9wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x40b0…f139backed Yes | 37c | 72.82$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.12 | 297 | 40.7%121 W · 176 L | +11.4wins | +0.04per pick | 37cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 27c | 64$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.11 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x74b8…4ec2backed Yes | 52c | 62.95$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.22 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | +1.7wins | +0.12per pick | 24cpaid | +31.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xce1f…0669backed Yes | 57c | 52.82$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.95 | 20 | 25%5 W · 15 L | -1.7wins | -0.09per pick | 34cpaid | -30.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x759d…cc80backed No | 67c | 52.44$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.94 | 778 | 51.9%404 W · 374 L | -9.9wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe8c8…c0fabacked No | 75c | 51.29$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.47 | 31 | 54.8%17 W · 14 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x433a…38e5backed No | 77c | 51.29$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.48 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.7wins | -0.42per pick | 42cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x156b…5808backed Yes | 20c | 50$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40 | 405 | 35.6%144 W · 261 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb073…54fbbacked No | 76c | 48.24$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.66 | 23 | 60.9%14 W · 9 L | -1.2wins | -0.05per pick | 66cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x74aa…2c3fbacked No | 78c | 48.24$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.63 | 25 | 64%16 W · 9 L | +1.8wins | +0.07per pick | 57cpaid | +38.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 70c | 44.42$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.15 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x82e7…f552backed No | 79c | 42.68$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.75 | 354 | 41%145 W · 209 L | -19.3wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x15ed…0d9abacked Yes | 72c | 41.4$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.4 | 23 | 52.2%12 W · 11 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4e72…ffb9backed No | 30c | 35.11$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.61 | 2,102 | 56.5%1,188 W · 914 L | +61.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 77c | 35.08$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.11 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xec0a…71dabacked No | 44c | 33.37$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.58 | 113 | 43.4%49 W · 64 L | -6.4wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x942e…be27backed No | 67c | 30$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.1 | 2,010 | 61.5%1,237 W · 773 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd366…0184backed Yes | 34c | 29.15$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.15 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.28per pick | 22cpaid | +45.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6282…aaabbacked No | 70c | 28.7$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 421 | 51.8%218 W · 203 L | -4.0wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1383…2541backed No | 75c | 28.12$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.09 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.18per pick | 62cpaid | +41%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa259…6597backed No | 67c | 28$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.76 | 995 | 71.1%707 W · 288 L | +22.0wins | +0.02per pick | 69cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed No | 78c | 25$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.5 | 2,530 | 50.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L | -48.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x38a1…3154backed No | 73c | 25$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.2 | 2,067 | 74.6%1,542 W · 525 L | +23.8wins | +0.01per pick | 73cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c0a…a2c3backed No | 77c | 23.06$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.76 | 1,280 | 51.2%655 W · 625 L | -33.7wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 73c | 17.6$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.83 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa708…9321backed No | 77c | 14.55$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.25 | 1,299 | 57.5%747 W · 552 L | +11.8wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 35°C on June 12?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 31°C on June 12?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 32°C on June 12?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 33°C on June 12?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 34°C on June 12?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 36°C on June 12?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 37°C on June 12?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.