Other European Leagues · resolved market
FC Alverca vs. CF Estrela da Amadora: O/U 2.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2ece48385b299cc9984ec9100b4c81f88fd31c31310eeba610b7f8c190e917a9
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Other European Leaguesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $13,749
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $13,892
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $13,749 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 62 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Other European Leagues is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Other European Leagues | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xea2b…1fc6backed Over | 37c | 6,950$2,567 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,567.24 | 58 | 48.3%28 W · 30 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 78c | 4,578$3,582 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$996.56 | 7,889 | 45.4%3,579 W · 4,310 L | +11.2wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x33a7…960dbacked Over | 25c | 2,790$697 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$697.5 | 183 | 35%64 W · 119 L | +6.9wins | +0.04per pick | 31cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8e68…d99bbacked Under | 63c | 2,000$1,260 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$740 | 34 | 52.9%18 W · 16 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x391d…def1backed Over | 14c | 1,250$175 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$174.93 | 134 | 32.1%43 W · 91 L | +6.3wins | +0.05per pick | 27cpaid | +30%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Under | 61c | 1,000$610 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$390 | 2,179 | 48%1,046 W · 1,133 L | -26.7wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -12%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2472…8d9bbacked Over | 39c | 1,000$390 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$390 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.8wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -36.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Under | 63c | 826$522 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$304.2 | 1,098 | 50.5%554 W · 544 L | -36.1wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6a40…c93fbacked Under | 63c | 600$378 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$222 | 47 | 55.3%26 W · 21 L | +2.4wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1244…c851backed Under | 63c | 600$378 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$222 | 37 | 54.1%20 W · 17 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Under | 63c | 581.61$367 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$214.26 | 2,334 | 46.8%1,093 W · 1,241 L | +14.5wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 18c | 239.71$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.58 | 5,604 | 42%2,356 W · 3,248 L | +75.1wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3bcf…402abacked Over | 15c | 200$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 167 | 25.7%43 W · 124 L | +2.8wins | +0.02per pick | 24cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc210…39fcbacked Under | 64c | 200$128 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72 | 33 | 60.6%20 W · 13 L | +1.9wins | +0.06per pick | 55cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4a59…eb2ebacked Under | 63c | 160$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.2 | 28 | 60.7%17 W · 11 L | +1.2wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe015…621fbacked Over | 25c | 160$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 39 | 35.9%14 W · 25 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed Under | 80c | 156.91$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.06 | 648 | 42%272 W · 376 L | -12.6wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb6aa…3746backed Over | 39c | 100$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39 | 124 | 40.3%50 W · 74 L | +11.4wins | +0.09per pick | 31cpaid | +28.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4d84…21b1backed Under | 63c | 96.83$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.83 | 157 | 53.5%84 W · 73 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5179…2b29backed Under | 63c | 90$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.3 | 142 | 57.7%82 W · 60 L | +6.6wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2c4a…8e5dbacked Under | 63c | 90$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.3 | 72 | 58.3%42 W · 30 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd079…8db3backed Under | 63c | 90$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.3 | 38 | 50%19 W · 19 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfe1d…219ebacked Under | 62c | 88.77$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.77 | 59 | 52.5%31 W · 28 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x41ed…1da9backed Under | 63c | 80$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.6 | 94 | 56.4%53 W · 41 L | +5.5wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4d58…2073backed Under | 63c | 72$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.64 | 107 | 56.1%60 W · 47 L | +5.1wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcc0e…0fbdbacked Under | 63c | 60$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.2 | 30 | 60%18 W · 12 L | +1.1wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa9d3…9d4bbacked Under | 63c | 60$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.2 | 118 | 55.9%66 W · 52 L | +5.1wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc383…a540backed Under | 63c | 60$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.2 | 101 | 56.4%57 W · 44 L | +4.7wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2025…db59backed Under | 63c | 56$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.72 | 98 | 61.2%60 W · 38 L | +7.2wins | +0.07per pick | 54cpaid | +14.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc599…2cecbacked Under | 63c | 50$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.5 | 29 | 55.2%16 W · 13 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4e0a…e4e6backed Under | 63c | 50$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.5 | 126 | 55.6%70 W · 56 L | +6.4wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7eaa…3ea5backed Under | 65c | 46.15$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.15 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdb12…f057backed Under | 63c | 45$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.65 | 90 | 58.9%53 W · 37 L | +5.8wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x095d…110bbacked Over | 25c | 40$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.9wins | -0.47per pick | 47cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb3e4…d6b2backed Under | 63c | 40$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.8 | 82 | 56.1%46 W · 36 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd2dc…b3c5backed Under | 63c | 36$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.32 | 86 | 58.1%50 W · 36 L | +5.4wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | +9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7398…f4b6backed Under | 63c | 34$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.58 | 89 | 57.3%51 W · 38 L | +3.9wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3f1f…f56bbacked Under | 63c | 34$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.58 | 26 | 69.2%18 W · 8 L | +3.1wins | +0.12per pick | 57cpaid | +23.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf79e…9a84backed Under | 63c | 34$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.58 | 91 | 60.4%55 W · 36 L | +7.4wins | +0.08per pick | 52cpaid | +12.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x864c…735fbacked Under | 63c | 34$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.58 | 99 | 59.6%59 W · 40 L | +7.1wins | +0.07per pick | 52cpaid | +12%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0fad…aa0fbacked Under | 63c | 34$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.58 | 85 | 60%51 W · 34 L | +5.2wins | +0.06per pick | 54cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa48d…b023backed Under | 63c | 34$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.58 | 25 | 60%15 W · 10 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa620…ca56backed Under | 63c | 34$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.58 | 93 | 59.1%55 W · 38 L | +5.9wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +10.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2692…2698backed Under | 63c | 34$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.58 | 68 | 57.4%39 W · 29 L | +2.7wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa800…cc71backed Under | 63c | 32$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.84 | 61 | 55.7%34 W · 27 L | +2.9wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Under | 61c | 31.7$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.27 | 2,543 | 52.4%1,333 W · 1,210 L | +18.3wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4109…7e24backed Under | 63c | 30$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.1 | 29 | 58.6%17 W · 12 L | +1.6wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc16f…0f4fbacked Under | 63c | 30$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.1 | 95 | 57.9%55 W · 40 L | +5.3wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0ee5…96c2backed Under | 63c | 30$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.1 | 29 | 62.1%18 W · 11 L | +1.5wins | +0.05per pick | 57cpaid | +13.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x31ce…88cdbacked Under | 63c | 24$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.88 | 28 | 53.6%15 W · 13 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84fc…9db4backed Under | 63c | 24$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.88 | 85 | 57.6%49 W · 36 L | +3.6wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7cae…bf8abacked Under | 63c | 24$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.88 | 26 | 53.8%14 W · 12 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdcf7…bcbebacked Under | 63c | 24$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.88 | 79 | 59.5%47 W · 32 L | +5.2wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6b82…2d2abacked Under | 63c | 24$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.88 | 26 | 61.5%16 W · 10 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 59cpaid | +9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd2a2…004abacked Under | 63c | 24$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.88 | 91 | 59.3%54 W · 37 L | +6.1wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe6df…22a9backed Under | 63c | 24$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.88 | 69 | 63.8%44 W · 25 L | +4.3wins | +0.06per pick | 58cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x234d…e8e1backed Under | 75c | 21.33$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.33 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa97e…7753backed Under | 63c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.4 | 79 | 57%45 W · 34 L | +4.6wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1941…c47fbacked Under | 63c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.4 | 22 | 68.2%15 W · 7 L | +2.2wins | +0.10per pick | 58cpaid | +19.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x46af…1f6abacked Under | 63c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.4 | 79 | 57%45 W · 34 L | +4.4wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa7b5…798cbacked Under | 63c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.4 | 79 | 59.5%47 W · 32 L | +4.9wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd03b…856cbacked Under | 63c | 16$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.92 | 69 | 60.9%42 W · 27 L | +5.3wins | +0.08per pick | 53cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Other European Leagues and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- FC Alverca vs. CF Estrela da Amadora: O/U 2.5this page
- FC Alverca vs. CF Estrela da Amadora: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- FC Alverca vs. CF Estrela da Amadora: O/U 1.5Over won
- FC Alverca vs. CF Estrela da Amadora: O/U 3.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.