Serie A · resolved market
ACF Fiorentina vs. Juventus FC: O/U 2.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2ef2e958ffb8a5661852a148288530d5c5edc667238ffbaaf3d0478bc25ba063
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Serie Aevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $4,079
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $4,163
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $4,079 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 24 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Serie A is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Serie A | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Under | 61c | 600.45$364 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$236.58 | 932 | 52%485 W · 447 L | +11.4wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9e3b…5a53backed Over | 41c | 502.93$206 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$206 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x742f…d673backed Over | 27c | 388.25$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.33 | 147 | 40.8%60 W · 87 L | -14.0wins | -0.10per pick | 50cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd397…5052backed Under | 63c | 317.46$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117.46 | 23 | 91.3%21 W · 2 L | +6.4wins | +0.28per pick | 64cpaid | +48.8%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x1346…8502backed Over | 40c | 250$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 34 | 26.5%9 W · 25 L | -2.3wins | -0.07per pick | 33cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Under | 59c | 229.83$137 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.15 | 527 | 48%253 W · 274 L | -35.4wins | -0.07per pick | 55cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd473…3febbacked Over | 50c | 200$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 55 | 40%22 W · 33 L | -7.9wins | -0.14per pick | 54cpaid | -25.8%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x5137…1556backed Under | 55c | 143.65$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.94 | 120 | 49.2%59 W · 61 L | +7.5wins | +0.06per pick | 43cpaid | +17.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe7f6…5ac8backed Over | 45c | 139.16$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.62 | 57 | 40.4%23 W · 34 L | +2.5wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked Under | 65c | 109$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.01 | 284 | 45.4%129 W · 155 L | +4.9wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4a8d…31eabacked Under | 57c | 105.61$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.41 | 339 | 51.6%175 W · 164 L | +8.6wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x553b…f71cbacked Over | 43c | 100$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43 | 45 | 53.3%24 W · 21 L | +7.1wins | +0.16per pick | 38cpaid | +48.7%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x237e…a5f0backed Over | 33c | 95$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.35 | 33 | 57.6%19 W · 14 L | +7.3wins | +0.22per pick | 35cpaid | +44.6%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xe48c…163abacked Over | 30c | 68$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.4 | 156 | 48.7%76 W · 80 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe398…ee2ebacked Over | 54c | 63.65$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.65 | 43 | 65.1%28 W · 15 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x908a…ad16backed Over | 43c | 59$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.42 | 592 | 40.7%241 W · 351 L | -15.8wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfb20…3b5cbacked Under | 74c | 54.05$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.05 | 39 | 48.7%19 W · 20 L | -3.1wins | -0.08per pick | 57cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…db98backed Over | 26c | 54.05$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.05 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | -1.0wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | +2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb841…d81fbacked Over | 45c | 51.12$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | +51.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe22…9a1abacked Over | 47c | 42.98$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.08per pick | 49cpaid | +21%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9731…9b35backed Under | 56c | 42.6$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.74 | 387 | 44.7%173 W · 214 L | -10.8wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5825…4ffbbacked Over | 63c | 31.75$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | -0.7wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc4da…ae65backed Under | 57c | 24.56$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.56 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8118…3ec3backed Over | 61c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.2 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.8wins | -0.36per pick | 56cpaid | -55.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Serie A and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- ACF Fiorentina vs. Juventus FC: O/U 2.5this page
- ACF Fiorentina vs. Juventus FC: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- Spread: Juventus FC (-1.5)ACF Fiorentina won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.