Other European Leagues · resolved market
Will Casa Pia AC vs. AVS Futebol end in a draw?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2f11356fb8327a060e61c388d29c8480cf5abeac447c21fc254475c6aa4abadb
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Other European Leaguesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $11,575
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $14,594
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,575 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 24 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Other European Leagues is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Other European Leagues | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd3ba…e793backed Yes | 15c | 1,951$286 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,665.33 | 142 | 62.7%89 W · 53 L | +15.1wins | +0.11per pick | 52cpaid | +19.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xe6a2…9874backed Yes | 27c | 813.79$220 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$593.79 | 141 | 32.6%46 W · 95 L | +6.6wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | +28%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x29c0…efaabacked No | 71c | 522.31$371 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$370.81 | 1,441 | 51.1%736 W · 705 L | -16.4wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed No | 37c | 474.05$174 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$174.39 | 511 | 40.9%209 W · 302 L | -12.5wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2496…50a5backed Yes | 8c | 332.56$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$307.56 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | +2.3wins | +0.11per pick | 32cpaid | +68.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x908a…ad16backed Yes | 6c | 310$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$292.95 | 853 | 40.1%342 W · 511 L | -12.3wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7f02…12f5backed Yes | 8c | 255.25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$235.25 | 80 | 55%44 W · 36 L | +6.8wins | +0.08per pick | 47cpaid | +32.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfa01…f0a7backed Yes | 30c | 249.98$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$174.99 | 199 | 54.3%108 W · 91 L | -4.5wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Yes | 11c | 228.43$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$203.86 | 7,889 | 45.4%3,579 W · 4,310 L | +11.2wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3d7e…6be6backed Yes | 9c | 169.11$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$154.11 | 23 | 56.5%13 W · 10 L | +1.5wins | +0.07per pick | 50cpaid | +42.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc277…dbf9backed Yes | 10c | 162.33$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$146.28 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.8wins | +0.89per pick | 11cpaid | +823.6%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2298…ac49backed Yes | 14c | 129.33$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$111.83 | 24 | 25%6 W · 18 L | +1.8wins | +0.07per pick | 18cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x28a2…91a4backed No | 70c | 118$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.6 | 42 | 64.3%27 W · 15 L | +4.1wins | +0.10per pick | 55cpaid | +12.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x52d8…99aebacked No | 70c | 113$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.1 | 58 | 50%29 W · 29 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7104…8cffbacked Yes | 47c | 105.55$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.55 | 23 | 56.5%13 W · 10 L | +2.4wins | +0.10per pick | 46cpaid | +91.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…5e70backed No | 72c | 75.37$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.19 | 2,130 | 45.8%975 W · 1,155 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf572…065abacked No | 70c | 63$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.1 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | +1.2wins | +0.08per pick | 56cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6e75…e81dbacked No | 70c | 56$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.2 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -33.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe60a…6a47backed Yes | 30c | 45$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.5 | 396 | 37.1%147 W · 249 L | -10.9wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x859a…1ccebacked Yes | 30c | 42$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.4 | 12 | 75%9 W · 3 L | +1.8wins | +0.15per pick | 60cpaid | +34.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7d82…0d44backed Yes | 29c | 34.52$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.51 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.71per pick | 29cpaid | +244.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked No | 78c | 30$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.4 | 242 | 42.1%102 W · 140 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed No | 78c | 22.2$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.31 | 598 | 55.5%332 W · 266 L | +13.6wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked No | 78c | 13.72$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.66 | 1,098 | 50.5%554 W · 544 L | -36.1wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Other European Leagues and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Casa Pia AC vs. AVS Futebol end in a draw?this page
- Will AVS Futebol win on 2026-01-23?No won
- Will Casa Pia AC win on 2026-01-23?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.