Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 8°C on May 2?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2f1798972d5058db3d77c58404adb23092be11100cd523fd00dd976562d88c04
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $9,635
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $11,229
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,635 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 57 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe6f7…bfd3backed Yes | 25c | 336.23$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$250.57 | 194 | 26.3%51 W · 143 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 27cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x938d…8674backed Yes | 41c | 307.5$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$182.5 | 467 | 33.4%156 W · 311 L | +21.4wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +12%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcf00…353fbacked No | 28c | 298.96$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.17 | 591 | 21.5%127 W · 464 L | -30.1wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -46.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 19c | 229.65$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$186.77 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5c38…f194backed No | 35c | 226.96$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.38 | 2,517 | 47.2%1,188 W · 1,329 L | +52.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x85bd…7f75backed Yes | 74c | 209.29$155 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.29 | 253 | 62.8%159 W · 94 L | +16.0wins | +0.06per pick | 57cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9387…d659backed Yes | 19c | 180.39$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$146.67 | 271 | 30.6%83 W · 188 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd3b4…73cdbacked No | 58c | 177.01$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.67 | 631 | 43.1%272 W · 359 L | -14.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 31c | 160.43$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.69 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0f60…026abacked No | 75c | 146.32$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.76 | 999 | 63.5%634 W · 365 L | -3.0wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdedd…17e1backed No | 42c | 104.7$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.44 | 2,432 | 60.4%1,470 W · 962 L | +30.2wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5964…35dfbacked No | 26c | 102.97$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.81 | 1,279 | 33.6%430 W · 849 L | -6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2671…a5fabacked No | 74c | 86.63$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.91 | 190 | 59.5%113 W · 77 L | -5.2wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 67c | 85.89$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.69 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf899…0759backed Yes | 29c | 82.02$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.37 | 267 | 38.6%103 W · 164 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9acf…0cc2backed No | 43c | 78$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.6 | 229 | 45.4%104 W · 125 L | +3.9wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x35c4…d144backed Yes | 62c | 74.43$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.23 | 1,255 | 62.5%785 W · 470 L | +99.5wins | +0.08per pick | 55cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x59ee…2e89backed No | 67c | 74.17$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 61cpaid | -25.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 55c | 71.94$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.68 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8842…dfa7backed Yes | 25c | 70.08$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.37 | 452 | 36.5%165 W · 287 L | +20.0wins | +0.04per pick | 32cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf51b…ca1bbacked No | 31c | 70$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.7 | 1,274 | 34%433 W · 841 L | +46.9wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed No | 49c | 67.99$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.33 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc423…2ccdbacked Yes | 60c | 66.47$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.47 | 524 | 44.1%231 W · 293 L | -9.0wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe217…5c75backed Yes | 31c | 64.52$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.52 | 160 | 30%48 W · 112 L | -15.2wins | -0.09per pick | 39cpaid | -38.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 61c | 60$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.6 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa708…9321backed No | 20c | 57.93$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.41 | 1,299 | 57.5%747 W · 552 L | +11.8wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbe99…9ca7backed Yes | 36c | 55.55$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.55 | 669 | 26.2%175 W · 494 L | -1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 26cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3172…e940backed No | 75c | 53$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.74 | 43 | 69.8%30 W · 13 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 68cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfc9a…2d52backed Yes | 46c | 53$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.45 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -1.1wins | -0.11per pick | 41cpaid | -36.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaa28…090bbacked No | 29c | 50.97$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.98 | 2,239 | 15%335 W · 1,904 L | +54.6wins | +0.02per pick | 13cpaid | +24%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa36b…1d89backed Yes | 33c | 45.63$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.56 | 555 | 38.4%213 W · 342 L | -14.1wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2a25…8055backed No | 63c | 45.21$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.29 | 197 | 64.5%127 W · 70 L | -8.0wins | -0.04per pick | 69cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6a56…be30backed Yes | 32c | 40$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.38 | 464 | 52.2%242 W · 222 L | +16.2wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9d39…099abacked No | 62c | 39.79$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.67 | 297 | 51.9%154 W · 143 L | -6.2wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1eea…00c5backed No | 73c | 36.6$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.6 | 224 | 50.4%113 W · 111 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfaf6…8b41backed Yes | 50c | 35.35$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.6 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | -3.0wins | -0.20per pick | 47cpaid | -47.6%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x36c7…e7fdbacked Yes | 55c | 35$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.68 | 61 | 47.5%29 W · 32 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3bba…a2eabacked Yes | 65c | 33$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.55 | 182 | 55.5%101 W · 81 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 62c | 32$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.84 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 44c | 30$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.05 | 2,870 | 64.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L | -32.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x531b…da26backed Yes | 52c | 27.52$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.32 | 127 | 33.1%42 W · 85 L | -2.1wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5e5d…9491backed No | 74c | 27.03$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 308 | 59.1%182 W · 126 L | -10.3wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5407…dbc0backed No | 71c | 27$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.28 | 167 | 64.1%107 W · 60 L | -13.7wins | -0.08per pick | 72cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0b18…2639backed Yes | 56c | 26.54$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.79 | 438 | 42%184 W · 254 L | -14.7wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0175…4264backed No | 61c | 25.64$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.64 | 97 | 53.6%52 W · 45 L | -12.2wins | -0.13per pick | 66cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x27d3…faadbacked Yes | 55c | 25.63$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.63 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.14per pick | 64cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 68c | 25$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6cc9…2ca0backed Yes | 60c | 25$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.09per pick | 34cpaid | -58.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe07e…0e7ebacked Yes | 45c | 22.87$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.5 | 334 | 50.6%169 W · 165 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf528…7e5bbacked No | 68c | 21.49$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.71 | 1,313 | 76.1%999 W · 314 L | +20.9wins | +0.02per pick | 74cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 71c | 20$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.2 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xda91…d760backed Yes | 56c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.7 | 1,010 | 40.3%407 W · 603 L | +16.9wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5848…1e49backed No | 64c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.7 | 863 | 62.9%543 W · 320 L | -1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x81ab…5f31backed Yes | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 289 | 46.4%134 W · 155 L | -14.6wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1153…707fbacked Yes | 67c | 19.8$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.53 | 44 | 75%33 W · 11 L | +5.9wins | +0.13per pick | 62cpaid | +27.9%equal weight | 59+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 74c | 16.33$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.09 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 8°C on May 2?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 10°C on May 2?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 11°C on May 2?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 13°C on May 2?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 6°C on May 2?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 7°C on May 2?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 9°C on May 2?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.