Tennis · resolved market
Shanghai Rolex Masters: David Goffin vs Alexandre Muller
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2f263fcafb561b9f5d69112f2f715528609cf7c37b554a9c59e07a07d9807531
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Goffinof Goffin, Muller
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $15,838
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $16,160
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $15,838 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 33 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Goffin | 58c | 2,281$1,321 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$960.98 | 8,217 | 45.5%3,737 W · 4,480 L | +166.6wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked Muller | 44c | 1,687$738 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$738.41 | 1,852 | 44.5%825 W · 1,027 L | -20.3wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Goffin | 48c | 785.46$377 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$408.44 | 1,039 | 54.6%567 W · 472 L | +37.6wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Goffin | 62c | 770.64$480 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$290.32 | 11,435 | 43.4%4,959 W · 6,476 L | +17.8wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x81f5…70afbacked Muller | 55c | 693.18$381 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$381.25 | 364 | 40.9%149 W · 215 L | -13.2wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6b7c…5f83backed Goffin | 48c | 508.44$244 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$264.38 | 2,426 | 47.3%1,148 W · 1,278 L | +45.2wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6884…6ccfbacked Goffin | 45c | 497$224 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$273.35 | 116 | 47.4%55 W · 61 L | -4.8wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x97e1…017bbacked Muller | 56c | 489.48$276 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$275.99 | 132 | 45.5%60 W · 72 L | +3.8wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xda35…ff0ebacked Muller | 54c | 412.04$222 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$221.67 | 591 | 51.6%305 W · 286 L | +4.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6466…4633backed Muller | 52c | 384.62$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 85 | 40%34 W · 51 L | -2.2wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc9d1…2b9ebacked Muller | 51c | 379.44$194 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$193.69 | 164 | 45.7%75 W · 89 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb58…86a4backed Goffin | 47c | 370.36$174 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$196.29 | 61 | 47.5%29 W · 32 L | +4.7wins | +0.08per pick | 40cpaid | +14.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x29c0…efaabacked Muller | 51c | 359.98$185 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$185.08 | 551 | 43.4%239 W · 312 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfcfe…d420backed Goffin | 62c | 322.58$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122.58 | 253 | 52.2%132 W · 121 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2129…4222backed Muller | 46c | 298.05$136 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$136.02 | 652 | 42.8%279 W · 373 L | +9.3wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2ea8…1fbfbacked Goffin | 44c | 274.01$121 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$153.2 | 170 | 46.5%79 W · 91 L | +6.8wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x459a…8a5abacked Goffin | 49c | 206$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105.06 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5adf…a5e7backed Goffin | 49c | 200$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102 | 253 | 42.7%108 W · 145 L | +8.2wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x742f…d673backed Muller | 41c | 193$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.6 | 439 | 48.5%213 W · 226 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x480d…f219backed Muller | 55c | 181.82$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 731 | 47.9%350 W · 381 L | -16.9wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf575…e0ebbacked Muller | 28c | 142.23$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 204 | 31.9%65 W · 139 L | -9.1wins | -0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x50e6…e838backed Muller | 21c | 140$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 22 | 45.5%10 W · 12 L | +1.6wins | +0.07per pick | 38cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6f7f…90c5backed Muller | 55c | 140$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77 | 47 | 38.3%18 W · 29 L | -7.5wins | -0.16per pick | 54cpaid | -32%equal weight | 38-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x9354…6502backed Goffin | 57c | 119$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.09 | 755 | 47.8%361 W · 394 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x64ae…ead9backed Muller | 51c | 117.65$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 606 | 41.6%252 W · 354 L | -5.5wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x420e…e3c9backed Goffin | 49c | 117.64$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.65 | 122 | 56.6%69 W · 53 L | +2.9wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x47ca…c7f5backed Goffin | 50c | 100$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | +2.7wins | +0.20per pick | 45cpaid | +39%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb78d…1d48backed Muller | 77c | 100$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77 | 53 | 60.4%32 W · 21 L | -2.7wins | -0.05per pick | 66cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe49c…773ebacked Muller | 50c | 100$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 54 | 38.9%21 W · 33 L | -4.1wins | -0.08per pick | 46cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9c96…f165backed Goffin | 50c | 100$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 15 | 66.7%10 W · 5 L | +3.1wins | +0.21per pick | 46cpaid | +48.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8b55…d74bbacked Goffin | 43c | 80$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.6 | 287 | 47.7%137 W · 150 L | +6.1wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4b…5a92backed Muller | 51c | 48.85$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 639 | 42.4%271 W · 368 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x25bf…7a56backed Goffin | 48c | 41.67$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.67 | 2,335 | 46.6%1,088 W · 1,247 L | +55.3wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.