Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 25°C on May 23?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2f2fc0bfc2b7649ee49624eeb1a99e516d737cb378d92d60cb06e5c838244cbe
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $10,323
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $12,790
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,323 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 35 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 63c | 694.31$437 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$257.21 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaf17…5c20backed No | 8c | 312.92$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.23 | 1,787 | 25.7%460 W · 1,327 L | +132.5wins | +0.07per pick | 18cpaid | +50.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe4f0…6450backed No | 8c | 220$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.4 | 141 | 19.1%27 W · 114 L | -3.1wins | -0.02per pick | 21cpaid | -30.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 19c | 199.37$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.77 | 2,060 | 60%1,235 W · 825 L | +28.9wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 16c | 196$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.65 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 63c | 154.01$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.01 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a6…1507backed No | 11c | 126.09$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.75 | 2,626 | 54%1,418 W · 1,208 L | -56.4wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3690…e16fbacked No | 17c | 115.49$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.14 | 767 | 55.4%425 W · 342 L | +40.7wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xec86…60e4backed Yes | 27c | 113.08$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.2 | 1,163 | 38.2%444 W · 719 L | +19.4wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9b72…a958backed No | 19c | 110.53$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 686 | 45.8%314 W · 372 L | -10.7wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x35c4…d144backed Yes | 78c | 104.96$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.63 | 1,255 | 62.5%785 W · 470 L | +99.5wins | +0.08per pick | 55cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5964…35dfbacked No | 36c | 99.99$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.16 | 1,279 | 33.6%430 W · 849 L | -6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfecc…77dabacked Yes | 18c | 96.69$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.04 | 404 | 38.1%154 W · 250 L | +12.4wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5c38…f194backed No | 35c | 90$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.08 | 2,517 | 47.2%1,188 W · 1,329 L | +52.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2d0f…81aabacked Yes | 73c | 87.29$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.54 | 270 | 79.3%214 W · 56 L | +52.5wins | +0.19per pick | 60cpaid | +30.3%equal weight | 70+0.18 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 58c | 80.44$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.27 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x18ae…314cbacked Yes | 13c | 75.94$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.94 | 1,211 | 29.8%361 W · 850 L | -7.6wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 22c | 75.61$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.92 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcd91…32b8backed No | 15c | 73$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.95 | 1,428 | 52.1%744 W · 684 L | -21.9wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x878c…1a26backed Yes | 80c | 60$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.11 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +68.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe3d1…d203backed Yes | 76c | 60$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.13 | 19 | 84.2%16 W · 3 L | +5.4wins | +0.28per pick | 56cpaid | +50.5%equal weight | 64+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xbda2…97ebbacked Yes | 77c | 60$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.8 | 16 | 93.8%15 W · 1 L | +5.3wins | +0.33per pick | 61cpaid | +48%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x84a9…d15fbacked Yes | 78c | 60$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.28 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +51.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe422…4d64backed No | 41c | 50$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.5 | 2,065 | 43.6%900 W · 1,165 L | -11.3wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed No | 76c | 49$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.22 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf114…6eccbacked Yes | 45c | 48.36$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.45 | 1,090 | 74.2%809 W · 281 L | +179.3wins | +0.16per pick | 58cpaid | +34.1%equal weight | 68+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 42c | 45.67$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.29 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x6897…a4a4backed No | 23c | 44.71$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.43 | 192 | 17.2%33 W · 159 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 17cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x86c2…8010backed No | 41c | 40$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.4 | 1,271 | 47.6%605 W · 666 L | -25.1wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5d0f…085cbacked Yes | 56c | 30.21$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.21 | 616 | 76.3%470 W · 146 L | +92.4wins | +0.15per pick | 61cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 66+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x2032…e43ebacked No | 74c | 26.64$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.65 | 180 | 60%108 W · 72 L | -21.2wins | -0.12per pick | 72cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 38-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x5937…ae8dbacked Yes | 50c | 25.33$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.58 | 185 | 67.6%125 W · 60 L | +28.7wins | +0.16per pick | 52cpaid | +34.6%equal weight | 65+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x1798…1ce9backed No | 72c | 23.32$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.8 | 2,428 | 44.9%1,091 W · 1,337 L | -31.5wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2e9d…e9f4backed Yes | 80c | 15.76$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.22 | 33 | 90.9%30 W · 3 L | +10.4wins | +0.32per pick | 59cpaid | +71.6%equal weight | 70+0.18 edge/pick |
| 0xe7c3…20e0backed No | 78c | 15$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.7 | 637 | 57.6%367 W · 270 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 25°C on May 23?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 17°C on May 23?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 20°C on May 23?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 22°C on May 23?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 23°C on May 23?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 24°C on May 23?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 26°C or higher on May 23?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.