Bundesliga · resolved market
FC Schalke 04 vs. SG Dynamo Dresden: O/U 2.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2f6e79937a590b20312563432de0ec92bed7a96bd2b72aa456da8d396b48819a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $31,986
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $39,841
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $31,986 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 35 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 69c | 7,281$5,041 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,041.41 | 3,284 | 42.6%1,399 W · 1,885 L | -74.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x33a7…960dbacked Over | 17c | 4,229$724 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,504.75 | 116 | 30.2%35 W · 81 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9731…9b35backed Under | 52c | 3,241$1,685 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,685.1 | 447 | 49.4%221 W · 226 L | +13.2wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7b2c…af48backed Over | 48c | 2,505$1,202 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,302.6 | 565 | 47.8%270 W · 295 L | +6.8wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Over | 48c | 2,030$977 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,052.86 | 1,681 | 45.2%759 W · 922 L | +6.8wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1cc9…f0b3backed Over | 51c | 784.31$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$384.31 | 59 | 44.1%26 W · 33 L | +5.9wins | +0.10per pick | 34cpaid | +22%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7aa8…56dbbacked Under | 50c | 540$270 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$270 | 26 | 46.2%12 W · 14 L | -1.9wins | -0.07per pick | 53cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8dee…412bbacked Over | 50c | 500$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$250 | 88 | 46.6%41 W · 47 L | +3.8wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9fad…5a9fbacked Under | 52c | 486.98$253 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$252.98 | 332 | 44.6%148 W · 184 L | -3.1wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd239…2083backed Over | 50c | 436$218 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$218 | 31 | 58.1%18 W · 13 L | +2.4wins | +0.08per pick | 50cpaid | +14.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5773…ac11backed Over | 48c | 400$192 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$208 | 311 | 45%140 W · 171 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd3cf…493bbacked Under | 67c | 281.35$188 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$187.69 | 59 | 74.6%44 W · 15 L | +6.1wins | +0.10per pick | 64cpaid | +18.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3eff…ae12backed Over | 48c | 247.67$119 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$128.79 | 65 | 58.5%38 W · 27 L | +4.7wins | +0.07per pick | 51cpaid | +73.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Under | 50c | 214.43$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.11 | 1,305 | 40.8%532 W · 773 L | -42.3wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0a76…b30fbacked Over | 47c | 213.85$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$113.34 | 63 | 39.7%25 W · 38 L | -5.8wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3f51…41edbacked Over | 50c | 212$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106 | 66 | 59.1%39 W · 27 L | +3.7wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +11%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x219e…14d9backed Over | 51c | 156.86$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.86 | 134 | 61.9%83 W · 51 L | +4.7wins | +0.04per pick | 58cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaab8…a331backed Over | 47c | 151.88$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.87 | 33 | 60.6%20 W · 13 L | +3.2wins | +0.10per pick | 51cpaid | +15.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4035…5e54backed Over | 50c | 120$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60 | 58 | 60.3%35 W · 23 L | +1.5wins | +0.03per pick | 58cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9075…cfe8backed Over | 46c | 108.7$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.7 | 253 | 52.2%132 W · 121 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd8b6…c7dbbacked Under | 51c | 98.04$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x86fd…db80backed Under | 54c | 92.59$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.6wins | -0.31per pick | 51cpaid | -69.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x33af…288abacked Over | 35c | 71.71$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.71 | 271 | 42.8%116 W · 155 L | +18.5wins | +0.07per pick | 36cpaid | +17.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfee4…d386backed Over | 48c | 66.38$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.52 | 187 | 46%86 W · 101 L | -9.8wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x06da…0a4abacked Under | 53c | 56.6$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 44 | 40.9%18 W · 26 L | -2.2wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 64c | 56.1$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.65 | 2,538 | 39.8%1,009 W · 1,529 L | -8.1wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Under | 50c | 54.5$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 1,083 | 50.8%550 W · 533 L | +8.2wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb4…8285backed Over | 48c | 40.06$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.83 | 550 | 58.7%323 W · 227 L | +23.5wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdc91…0fdbbacked Over | 50c | 40$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 209 | 57.4%120 W · 89 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9b89…99e2backed Over | 48c | 37.5$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.5 | 258 | 50.4%130 W · 128 L | +6.9wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbcd2…084dbacked Under | 49c | 30.61$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -22.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x04b3…ad8dbacked Over | 49c | 30.5$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.5 | 110 | 60%66 W · 44 L | +13.6wins | +0.12per pick | 48cpaid | +26%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x8996…15efbacked Over | 39c | 28.43$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.47 | 38 | 36.8%14 W · 24 L | -1.3wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Over | 48c | 28.25$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.69 | 762 | 34.8%265 W · 497 L | +9.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1b02…ae87backed Under | 80c | 20$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.10per pick | 73cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- FC Schalke 04 vs. SG Dynamo Dresden: O/U 2.5this page
- FC Schalke 04 vs. SG Dynamo Dresden: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- FC Schalke 04 vs. SG Dynamo Dresden: O/U 1.5Over won
- FC Schalke 04 vs. SG Dynamo Dresden: O/U 3.5Over won
- FC Schalke 04 vs. SG Dynamo Dresden: O/U 4.5Under won
- Spread: FC Schalke 04 (-1.5)SG Dynamo Dresden won
- Spread: FC Schalke 04 (-2.5)SG Dynamo Dresden won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.