Bundesliga · resolved market
FC Schalke 04 vs. SG Dynamo Dresden: O/U 1.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf32453ef3ddf2c7dde9338c5ad1abe51b17182462a10827ea67e919bcdc7ef4d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $10,113
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $14,305
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,113 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 24 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 55c | 4,547$2,490 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,489.88 | 3,284 | 42.6%1,399 W · 1,885 L | -74.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x33a7…960dbacked Over | 40c | 2,500$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,499.7 | 116 | 30.2%35 W · 81 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbffe…e4efbacked Over | 43c | 1,000$430 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$570 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | +1.6wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +22.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 43c | 369.1$157 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$157.17 | 2,538 | 39.8%1,009 W · 1,529 L | -8.1wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x85a1…a640backed Over | 75c | 363$272 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.75 | 89 | 59.6%53 W · 36 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Under | 59c | 264.41$155 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$154.79 | 1,305 | 40.8%532 W · 773 L | -42.3wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x219e…14d9backed Over | 76c | 263.16$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.16 | 134 | 61.9%83 W · 51 L | +4.7wins | +0.04per pick | 58cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd91a…211cbacked Over | 42c | 259$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$151.03 | 50 | 24%12 W · 38 L | -5.3wins | -0.11per pick | 35cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb8c4…7385backed Over | 40c | 250$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150 | 157 | 42%66 W · 91 L | +4.7wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Under | 25c | 224.28$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.2 | 1,681 | 45.2%759 W · 922 L | +6.8wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x418b…a741backed Over | 67c | 149.12$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.12 | 120 | 69.2%83 W · 37 L | +5.8wins | +0.05per pick | 64cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9075…cfe8backed Over | 76c | 132$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.68 | 253 | 52.2%132 W · 121 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd235…6eebbacked Over | 40c | 100$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60 | 119 | 43.7%52 W · 67 L | +8.0wins | +0.07per pick | 37cpaid | +20.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4cc7…b90dbacked Over | 41c | 96.56$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.97 | 61 | 34.4%21 W · 40 L | -3.6wins | -0.06per pick | 40cpaid | -18%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdc91…0fdbbacked Over | 75c | 80$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 209 | 57.4%120 W · 89 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xce9d…3c05backed Under | 37c | 54.05$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | -1.4wins | -0.07per pick | 50cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf38c…d9f2backed Over | 65c | 51.69$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.09 | 117 | 48.7%57 W · 60 L | -3.8wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x33af…288abacked Over | 44c | 50.11$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.11 | 271 | 42.8%116 W · 155 L | +18.5wins | +0.07per pick | 36cpaid | +17.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2afd…deb4backed Under | 24c | 41$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 23 | 21.7%5 W · 18 L | -1.9wins | -0.08per pick | 30cpaid | -46.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc758…8574backed Over | 40c | 37.5$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.5 | 129 | 51.2%66 W · 63 L | +12.1wins | +0.09per pick | 42cpaid | +14.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x14c3…0262backed Over | 40c | 32.5$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.5 | 45 | 24.4%11 W · 34 L | +1.6wins | +0.04per pick | 21cpaid | +15.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc32…00bfbacked Over | 52c | 28.85$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.85 | 49 | 57.1%28 W · 21 L | +3.5wins | +0.07per pick | 50cpaid | +17%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0fa1…bf73backed Over | 40c | 25$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 77 | 58.4%45 W · 32 L | +5.2wins | +0.07per pick | 52cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Under | 51c | 21.37$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.94 | 215 | 40.9%88 W · 127 L | -15.5wins | -0.07per pick | 48cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- FC Schalke 04 vs. SG Dynamo Dresden: O/U 1.5this page
- FC Schalke 04 vs. SG Dynamo Dresden: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- FC Schalke 04 vs. SG Dynamo Dresden: O/U 2.5Over won
- FC Schalke 04 vs. SG Dynamo Dresden: O/U 3.5Over won
- FC Schalke 04 vs. SG Dynamo Dresden: O/U 4.5Under won
- Spread: FC Schalke 04 (-1.5)SG Dynamo Dresden won
- Spread: FC Schalke 04 (-2.5)SG Dynamo Dresden won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.