Tennis · resolved market
Wuhan Tennis Open: Linda Noskova vs Elena Rybakina
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2fcef2e134f37da980b3a8e361dd34c26e6e9282c7bfd0d05b9779c1e7f9f9a7
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Rybakinaof Noskova, Rybakina
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $22,343
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $26,908
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $22,343 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 28 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xcc30…c8a5backed Rybakina | 69c | 5,000$3,450 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,550 | 189 | 33.9%64 W · 125 L | -8.5wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Rybakina | 73c | 3,309$2,416 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$892.64 | 8,217 | 45.5%3,737 W · 4,480 L | +166.6wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2ea8…1fbfbacked Noskova | 27c | 3,132$844 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$844.38 | 170 | 46.5%79 W · 91 L | +6.8wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xda35…ff0ebacked Noskova | 34c | 1,690$578 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$578.14 | 591 | 51.6%305 W · 286 L | +4.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaeb5…58e2backed Noskova | 14c | 1,300$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$180 | 819 | 38.9%319 W · 500 L | -4.5wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb852…bfaebacked Noskova | 34c | 1,199$408 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$407.77 | 296 | 34.1%101 W · 195 L | +10.3wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb3d0…5c32backed Noskova | 32c | 750$240 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$240 | 226 | 29.2%66 W · 160 L | +7.1wins | +0.03per pick | 26cpaid | +16.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6f7f…90c5backed Noskova | 34c | 691.18$235 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$235 | 47 | 38.3%18 W · 29 L | -7.5wins | -0.16per pick | 54cpaid | -32%equal weight | 38-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x6b7c…5f83backed Rybakina | 66c | 344.31$227 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117.01 | 2,426 | 47.3%1,148 W · 1,278 L | +45.2wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd035…f165backed Noskova | 16c | 340$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.4 | 261 | 31.4%82 W · 179 L | -10.8wins | -0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -24%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x480d…f219backed Noskova | 34c | 294.12$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 731 | 47.9%350 W · 381 L | -16.9wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x908a…ad16backed Rybakina | 70c | 277.78$193 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.3 | 1,655 | 50.1%829 W · 826 L | +30.2wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x36bf…2864backed Noskova | 19c | 270$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51 | 444 | 23.9%106 W · 338 L | -5.5wins | -0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7f83…a491backed Noskova | 14c | 229.99$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 257 | 43.6%112 W · 145 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4790…2dd7backed Noskova | 36c | 209.14$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 91 | 54.9%50 W · 41 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaacf…5f84backed Rybakina | 65c | 169$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.15 | 178 | 67.4%120 W · 58 L | +3.6wins | +0.02per pick | 65cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Rybakina | 63c | 158.16$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.52 | 1,039 | 54.6%567 W · 472 L | +37.6wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4fb7…082dbacked Noskova | 37c | 135.14$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 81 | 48.1%39 W · 42 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7753…73cebacked Rybakina | 66c | 133.33$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.33 | 236 | 70.8%167 W · 69 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x81f5…70afbacked Rybakina | 64c | 132.14$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.09 | 364 | 40.9%149 W · 215 L | -13.2wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2129…4222backed Noskova | 29c | 123.02$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.57 | 652 | 42.8%279 W · 373 L | +9.3wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Rybakina | 64c | 111.08$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.99 | 2,865 | 44.3%1,269 W · 1,596 L | +6.0wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5c5a…5787backed Noskova | 36c | 83.3$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.99 | 36 | 50%18 W · 18 L | +4.2wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | +28.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0fc3…5a00backed Noskova | 37c | 67.57$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 24 | 33.3%8 W · 16 L | -1.2wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -22.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x57c3…3201backed Rybakina | 65c | 60.86$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.3 | 189 | 57.7%109 W · 80 L | -5.3wins | -0.03per pick | 60cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5530…d38dbacked Noskova | 37c | 60$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.2 | 629 | 52.1%328 W · 301 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3b9f…d2b9backed Noskova | 31c | 45$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.95 | 52 | 55.8%29 W · 23 L | +2.6wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x008d…6958backed Noskova | 31c | 40$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.4 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | -2.4wins | -0.13per pick | 55cpaid | -33.2%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.