Venezuela · resolved market
Maduro receives asylum by December 31?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2fe54dd1f43b3b418f8720c6e67c2af08e675edd620328cce110926cfae5503e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Venezuelaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $23,024
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $23,421
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $23,024 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 20 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Venezuela is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Venezuela | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8045…5b8fbacked Yes | 6c | 3,219$182 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$181.78 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.07per pick | 23cpaid | -74.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a91…5267backed Yes | 6c | 1,343$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.6 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | +1.5wins | +0.11per pick | 18cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6b0e…e3eabacked Yes | 9c | 1,017$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.91 | 52 | 19.2%10 W · 42 L | +1.9wins | +0.04per pick | 16cpaid | -35.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbacd…ab35backed Yes | 10c | 957.82$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.86 | 51 | 21.6%11 W · 40 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -36.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x974f…78f7backed Yes | 6c | 779.96$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -0.5wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 3c | 577.73$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.91 | 164 | 4.9%8 W · 156 L | -2.6wins | -0.02per pick | 6cpaid | -75.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb40…3612backed Yes | 7c | 564.42$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.23 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +0.9wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | -33.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 7c | 555.83$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.91 | 48 | 39.6%19 W · 29 L | -2.4wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -31.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6a9d…373ebacked Yes | 8c | 499.99$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | +1.9wins | +0.17per pick | 19cpaid | +36.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5ecd…0787backed Yes | 14c | 499.98$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 12 | 8.3%1 W · 11 L | -2.4wins | -0.20per pick | 28cpaid | -87.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x481d…ab3abacked Yes | 12c | 461.67$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -2.1wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0f2c…8e8abacked Yes | 13c | 432.62$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2900…5479backed Yes | 11c | 250$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.5 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +1.3wins | +0.18per pick | 39cpaid | +27.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7fda…e430backed Yes | 14c | 250$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x17a5…e00abacked Yes | 13c | 168.27$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.65 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +1.7wins | +0.17per pick | 23cpaid | +38.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5015…1d5bbacked Yes | 12c | 166.67$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x86c8…570bbacked Yes | 13c | 154.76$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 15c | 111.8$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.77 | 74 | 35.1%26 W · 48 L | +2.8wins | +0.04per pick | 31cpaid | -37.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbf84…4ab2backed Yes | 12c | 101.67$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | -32%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf416…6ec9backed Yes | 16c | 100$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 28 | 42.9%12 W · 16 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | +47%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Venezuela and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.