Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 62-63°F on February 27?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x30064aa03cf84c2f90fff091e4992daed4c5a3e55e24db598c8f21294b2837f5
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $9,871
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $10,148
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,871 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 47 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 16c | 429.95$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.75 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9e7f…44d4backed No | 75c | 335.4$251 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.82 | 249 | 66.7%166 W · 83 L | +15.3wins | +0.06per pick | 61cpaid | +2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xeb01…43bbbacked Yes | 24c | 321.17$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.59 | 739 | 27.3%202 W · 537 L | +10.3wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b1e…cc93backed Yes | 49c | 240.36$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118.4 | 130 | 58.5%76 W · 54 L | +3.8wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +39.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf2db…2263backed Yes | 42c | 235.73$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 111 | 26.1%29 W · 82 L | -9.0wins | -0.08per pick | 34cpaid | -33.6%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1c78…42e6backed No | 34c | 206.96$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$136.13 | 597 | 42%251 W · 346 L | +96.8wins | +0.16per pick | 26cpaid | +31.7%equal weight | 67+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x7d72…8e62backed Yes | 9c | 200$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 1,817 | 8.1%148 W · 1,669 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 8cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcf37…993fbacked No | 45c | 192$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105.11 | 656 | 25.8%169 W · 487 L | -13.2wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -35.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb581…0308backed Yes | 56c | 165$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.08 | 358 | 43.9%157 W · 201 L | +8.2wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xef98…7926backed Yes | 19c | 162.03$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 423 | 15.4%65 W · 358 L | +6.4wins | +0.02per pick | 14cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf57d…f322backed Yes | 19c | 161.15$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.86 | 255 | 19.2%49 W · 206 L | +5.8wins | +0.02per pick | 17cpaid | +22.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x32a8…4043backed Yes | 22c | 152.99$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.15 | 34 | 23.5%8 W · 26 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x43bc…d3ddbacked Yes | 70c | 143.31$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.70per pick | 70cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd7f6…628cbacked No | 76c | 141.38$107 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.46 | 67 | 55.2%37 W · 30 L | -5.3wins | -0.08per pick | 63cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc448…085ebacked Yes | 21c | 119.98$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.65 | 219 | 19.6%43 W · 176 L | -7.3wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -35%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa96a…1377backed No | 64c | 112.84$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.16 | 541 | 43.6%236 W · 305 L | -12.9wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd11f…77bebacked Yes | 50c | 100.33$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | -2.5wins | -0.15per pick | 50cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1b22…8945backed Yes | 17c | 100$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 253 | 41.5%105 W · 148 L | -13.3wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +27.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x87c7…d1b6backed Yes | 24c | 100$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 287 | 37.6%108 W · 179 L | +5.3wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7817…d4b1backed Yes | 16c | 94.25$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.08 | 54 | 20.4%11 W · 43 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 22cpaid | -27.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 20c | 80$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xafe5…f7aebacked Yes | 18c | 79.52$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 17 | 23.5%4 W · 13 L | +1.1wins | +0.06per pick | 17cpaid | -32.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7943…27a1backed Yes | 36c | 64.04$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.04 | 320 | 44.7%143 W · 177 L | +9.6wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb9d5…9f2abacked Yes | 59c | 55.93$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 86 | 50%43 W · 43 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3680…f087backed Yes | 20c | 55.8$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.14 | 244 | 32.8%80 W · 164 L | +4.0wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 60c | 46.66$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.76 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x682c…87a9backed Yes | 29c | 43.92$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.59 | 464 | 23.5%109 W · 355 L | +20.7wins | +0.04per pick | 19cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6b4c…efa9backed Yes | 58c | 43.02$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 122 | 30.3%37 W · 85 L | -11.5wins | -0.09per pick | 40cpaid | -22.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x0408…3d68backed No | 73c | 40$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.66 | 212 | 62.3%132 W · 80 L | +20.9wins | +0.10per pick | 52cpaid | +25.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x6297…517ebacked Yes | 25c | 40$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1,643 | 27.8%456 W · 1,187 L | +117.6wins | +0.07per pick | 21cpaid | +33%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf6f7…e0dabacked Yes | 25c | 40$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1,861 | 23.8%443 W · 1,418 L | +47.9wins | +0.03per pick | 21cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 45c | 38.9$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.57 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x861e…37aabacked Yes | 49c | 38.76$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.97 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 58cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x775c…28a9backed No | 76c | 35$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.4 | 89 | 64%57 W · 32 L | +2.7wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed No | 41c | 30$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.7 | 1,592 | 30.8%491 W · 1,101 L | -6.4wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x35c4…d144backed No | 56c | 27.08$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.9 | 1,255 | 62.5%785 W · 470 L | +99.5wins | +0.08per pick | 55cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1726…1ad4backed No | 78c | 27$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.91 | 67 | 53.7%36 W · 31 L | +4.4wins | +0.07per pick | 47cpaid | +25.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x348a…9c6bbacked No | 74c | 26.16$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.8 | 80 | 36.3%29 W · 51 L | -8.6wins | -0.11per pick | 47cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4676…b720backed No | 66c | 22.59$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.67 | 981 | 60.6%594 W · 387 L | +9.2wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5664…1dfbbacked Yes | 59c | 22.11$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.94 | 11 | 72.7%8 W · 3 L | +0.9wins | +0.09per pick | 64cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdf21…2ed8backed No | 80c | 19$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.8 | 26 | 57.7%15 W · 11 L | +3.6wins | +0.14per pick | 44cpaid | +78.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xbcce…65afbacked No | 74c | 16.24$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.25 | 277 | 71.5%198 W · 79 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x025b…1793backed No | 78c | 15.92$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.49 | 126 | 32.5%41 W · 85 L | +5.8wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | +15.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x649e…fd6abacked No | 77c | 15.74$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.62 | 23 | 65.2%15 W · 8 L | +1.1wins | +0.05per pick | 61cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe311…a16fbacked No | 77c | 15.7$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.6 | 26 | 53.8%14 W · 12 L | -2.9wins | -0.11per pick | 65cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 80c | 15.09$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.08 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xad78…678cbacked No | 76c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.65 | 18 | 77.8%14 W · 4 L | +2.2wins | +0.12per pick | 66cpaid | +14.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 62-63°F on February 27?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be 53°F or below on February 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be 68°F or higher on February 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 54-55°F on February 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 56-57°F on February 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 58-59°F on February 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 60-61°F on February 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 64-65°F on February 27?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 66-67°F on February 27?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.