Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 64-65°F on February 27?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x69358fa1f219fbcabb563871cc506d2dc14c74f1b47ab6e8ab96d38f47ea0f2c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $16,654
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $17,573
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $16,654 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 32 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1c78…42e6backed No | 12c | 2,295$273 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$272.99 | 597 | 42%251 W · 346 L | +96.8wins | +0.16per pick | 26cpaid | +31.7%equal weight | 67+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x32a8…4043backed Yes | 8c | 965.98$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$890.43 | 34 | 23.5%8 W · 26 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1b22…8945backed Yes | 10c | 916.21$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$825.96 | 253 | 41.5%105 W · 148 L | -13.3wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +27.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 7c | 627.41$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$585.53 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xef98…7926backed Yes | 61c | 518.35$314 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$204.12 | 423 | 15.4%65 W · 358 L | +6.4wins | +0.02per pick | 14cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa96a…1377backed No | 55c | 412.61$228 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$228.33 | 541 | 43.6%236 W · 305 L | -12.9wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb01…43bbbacked Yes | 39c | 387.23$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$237.28 | 739 | 27.3%202 W · 537 L | +10.3wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf37…993fbacked No | 24c | 380.89$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.85 | 656 | 25.8%169 W · 487 L | -13.2wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -35.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x229c…b966backed No | 6c | 359.76$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1,567 | 37.2%583 W · 984 L | +243.6wins | +0.16per pick | 22cpaid | +25.1%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x8e22…3061backed Yes | 11c | 358.92$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$320.81 | 385 | 15.6%60 W · 325 L | +15.3wins | +0.04per pick | 12cpaid | +93.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9b1e…cc93backed Yes | 49c | 348.57$170 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$178.55 | 130 | 58.5%76 W · 54 L | +3.8wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +39.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf57d…f322backed Yes | 7c | 327.64$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$304.91 | 255 | 19.2%49 W · 206 L | +5.8wins | +0.02per pick | 17cpaid | +22.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb581…0308backed Yes | 24c | 235$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$178.85 | 358 | 43.9%157 W · 201 L | +8.2wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 5c | 206.41$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$195.1 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 6c | 184.61$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$173.65 | 2,823 | 11.2%316 W · 2,507 L | +17.7wins | +0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb7a…ed18backed Yes | 6c | 165.44$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$155.41 | 1,544 | 16.3%252 W · 1,292 L | +21.9wins | +0.01per pick | 15cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3b1a…4221backed No | 17c | 149.99$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.23 | 144 | 42.4%61 W · 83 L | -11.7wins | -0.08per pick | 50cpaid | -35.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x045e…d92cbacked Yes | 14c | 141.03$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$121.38 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.6wins | +0.11per pick | 9cpaid | +43.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbf2e…5cb9backed Yes | 10c | 126.02$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$113.02 | 21 | 52.4%11 W · 10 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | +35.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf6f7…e0dabacked Yes | 8c | 125.15$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$115.14 | 1,861 | 23.8%443 W · 1,418 L | +47.9wins | +0.03per pick | 21cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x025b…1793backed Yes | 38c | 117.21$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.06 | 126 | 32.5%41 W · 85 L | +5.8wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | +15.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4b29…623bbacked Yes | 68c | 97.04$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.81 | 268 | 28.7%77 W · 191 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x69b2…e50abacked No | 78c | 64.38$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 41 | 36.6%15 W · 26 L | -6.5wins | -0.16per pick | 52cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xb9d5…9f2abacked Yes | 65c | 62.75$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.01 | 86 | 50%43 W · 43 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 46c | 58$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.45 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x2754…1668backed No | 46c | 53.28$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.55 | 1,018 | 60.2%613 W · 405 L | +13.5wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb71c…97efbacked No | 66c | 42.32$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.14 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | -2.8wins | -0.15per pick | 71cpaid | -26.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5664…1dfbbacked Yes | 64c | 34.32$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.29 | 11 | 72.7%8 W · 3 L | +0.9wins | +0.09per pick | 64cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x82b1…2b4cbacked Yes | 49c | 30.48$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.48 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -0.6wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x35c4…d144backed No | 53c | 30$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.77 | 1,255 | 62.5%785 W · 470 L | +99.5wins | +0.08per pick | 55cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6077…8a56backed Yes | 62c | 24.29$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.29 | 109 | 56.9%62 W · 47 L | -2.5wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe211…c34fbacked Yes | 74c | 15.88$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.13 | 49 | 59.2%29 W · 20 L | +2.5wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 64-65°F on February 27?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be 53°F or below on February 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be 68°F or higher on February 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 54-55°F on February 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 56-57°F on February 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 58-59°F on February 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 60-61°F on February 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 62-63°F on February 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 66-67°F on February 27?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.