Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 60-61°F on February 27?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5af6f159835974b4e7d149759f4027d1cd2e9f273f6fd5f0fc22e9fd2501f27a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $5,685
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $6,201
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,685 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 50 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9532…7c44backed Yes | 13c | 313.98$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.79 | 36 | 22.2%8 W · 28 L | -3.0wins | -0.08per pick | 31cpaid | -37.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xeb01…43bbbacked Yes | 34c | 312.85$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.31 | 739 | 27.3%202 W · 537 L | +10.3wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 28c | 226.77$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.06 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7d72…8e62backed Yes | 9c | 200$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 1,817 | 8.1%148 W · 1,669 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 8cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9e7f…44d4backed No | 63c | 187.13$118 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.47 | 249 | 66.7%166 W · 83 L | +15.3wins | +0.06per pick | 61cpaid | +2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x87c7…d1b6backed Yes | 34c | 100$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34 | 287 | 37.6%108 W · 179 L | +5.3wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad13…7ed6backed No | 67c | 99.42$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.49 | 919 | 67%616 W · 303 L | -10.6wins | -0.01per pick | 68cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x03bb…cb41backed Yes | 37c | 90.13$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.4 | 20 | 30%6 W · 14 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 29cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x21c2…6e6dbacked Yes | 31c | 87.7$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.8 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -18%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 32c | 80$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.6 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6b4c…efa9backed Yes | 33c | 74.77$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 122 | 30.3%37 W · 85 L | -11.5wins | -0.09per pick | 40cpaid | -22.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4b40…96e3backed No | 66c | 74.31$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.27 | 522 | 45%235 W · 287 L | -13.2wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 67c | 68.24$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.66 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 24c | 62.73$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.92 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xf845…7c31backed No | 54c | 61.16$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.11 | 89 | 57.3%51 W · 38 L | +7.9wins | +0.09per pick | 48cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4416…b6ecbacked Yes | 36c | 60$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.6 | 33 | 33.3%11 W · 22 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -11%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 35c | 59.93$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.97 | 2,823 | 11.2%316 W · 2,507 L | +17.7wins | +0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 30c | 57.05$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.93 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xade1…9040backed Yes | 34c | 55.99$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.04 | 338 | 39.9%135 W · 203 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3680…f087backed Yes | 32c | 54.87$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.36 | 244 | 32.8%80 W · 164 L | +4.0wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb581…0308backed Yes | 26c | 52$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.35 | 358 | 43.9%157 W · 201 L | +8.2wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfadd…2ad3backed Yes | 57c | 50.32$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.89 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.57per pick | 57cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 46c | 50.14$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.05 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x68cd…e8d7backed Yes | 45c | 50$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.5 | 49 | 36.7%18 W · 31 L | -6.2wins | -0.13per pick | 49cpaid | -35.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x32a8…4043backed Yes | 29c | 48$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.87 | 34 | 23.5%8 W · 26 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc448…085ebacked Yes | 33c | 45$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.9 | 219 | 19.6%43 W · 176 L | -7.3wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -35%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x398b…1752backed No | 61c | 41.3$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.21 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.39per pick | 61cpaid | +64.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0390…9c9bbacked No | 60c | 40.94$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.26 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +65.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x324b…3fe4backed Yes | 35c | 39.05$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.49 | 21 | 38.1%8 W · 13 L | -1.2wins | -0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7943…27a1backed Yes | 33c | 38.07$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.56 | 320 | 44.7%143 W · 177 L | +9.6wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe311…a16fbacked No | 62c | 37.8$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.36 | 26 | 53.8%14 W · 12 L | -2.9wins | -0.11per pick | 65cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3865…fcbebacked No | 72c | 34.84$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.84 | 1,002 | 60.9%610 W · 392 L | -26.2wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbc13…5eb6backed No | 67c | 32.89$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.85 | 517 | 62.3%322 W · 195 L | -15.5wins | -0.03per pick | 65cpaid | -6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa96a…1377backed No | 65c | 30.57$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.7 | 541 | 43.6%236 W · 305 L | -12.9wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe233…c70bbacked No | 67c | 29.99$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.9 | 549 | 66.7%366 W · 183 L | -27.1wins | -0.05per pick | 72cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x36c2…2b8cbacked No | 67c | 29.89$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.86 | 707 | 70.2%496 W · 211 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 71cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x88ef…c541backed No | 74c | 29.53$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.75 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +35.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x79c7…e468backed Yes | 45c | 27.71$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.45per pick | 45cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1b06…978dbacked Yes | 39c | 27.43$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.71 | 30 | 23.3%7 W · 23 L | -4.5wins | -0.15per pick | 38cpaid | -42.8%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x034f…ca6bbacked No | 75c | 26.7$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.67 | 36 | 58.3%21 W · 15 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe86e…371cbacked No | 62c | 25.35$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.63 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.43per pick | 57cpaid | +75%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1880…f8d0backed Yes | 44c | 25.11$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.1 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.5wins | -0.25per pick | 42cpaid | -53.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xea83…7393backed No | 69c | 24.23$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.51 | 1,445 | 60.1%868 W · 577 L | +5.0wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1726…1ad4backed No | 68c | 22$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.04 | 67 | 53.7%36 W · 31 L | +4.4wins | +0.07per pick | 47cpaid | +25.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2e70…50ebbacked No | 67c | 20.74$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.81 | 315 | 67%211 W · 104 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 68cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaad7…cf8fbacked No | 68c | 18.3$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.86 | 861 | 73.2%630 W · 231 L | +13.2wins | +0.02per pick | 72cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x35c4…d144backed No | 66c | 17.74$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.11 | 1,255 | 62.5%785 W · 470 L | +99.5wins | +0.08per pick | 55cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xea65…d381backed No | 67c | 15.47$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.11 | 35 | 48.6%17 W · 18 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -29.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe584…85d4backed No | 68c | 15$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.8 | 82 | 56.1%46 W · 36 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -10%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe9da…ed70backed No | 71c | 14.94$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.33 | 763 | 71.4%545 W · 218 L | +11.2wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 60-61°F on February 27?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be 53°F or below on February 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be 68°F or higher on February 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 54-55°F on February 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 56-57°F on February 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 58-59°F on February 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 62-63°F on February 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 64-65°F on February 27?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 66-67°F on February 27?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.