CS2 · resolved market
Counter-Strike: illwill vs Johnny Speeds - Map 1 Winner
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x302b88ac5c2c34c4aff6e7fc2c579a56d2504e281bd84d33fee1d2c496f77210
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Johnny Speedsof illwill, Johnny Speeds
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- CS2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,585
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $8,665
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,585 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 28 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in CS2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in CS2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked Johnny Speeds | 56c | 458.8$259 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$199.66 | 3,910 | 36.6%1,431 W · 2,479 L | -197.6wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7069…325bbacked illwill | 45c | 413.11$186 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$185.9 | 946 | 45.8%433 W · 513 L | +18.9wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x51db…f9b3backed illwill | 34c | 359.21$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120.81 | 6,480 | 42.9%2,782 W · 3,698 L | -79.1wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3304…8313backed illwill | 30c | 337.23$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 28 | 53.6%15 W · 13 L | -0.9wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf56c…fcbdbacked illwill | 53c | 318$169 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$168.54 | 354 | 49.7%176 W · 178 L | -5.7wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcb5b…f243backed illwill | 25c | 275$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68 | 4,038 | 48.1%1,943 W · 2,095 L | -23.9wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x904e…0becbacked Johnny Speeds | 72c | 242.37$173 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.91 | 4,933 | 37.4%1,844 W · 3,089 L | -249.2wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -32.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4713…4d21backed illwill | 23c | 226$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.04 | 5,287 | 31.3%1,657 W · 3,630 L | -383.3wins | -0.07per pick | 39cpaid | -37.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa5a8…bf60backed Johnny Speeds | 55c | 215.12$119 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.12 | 988 | 56.1%554 W · 434 L | +21.8wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf6a0…2212backed illwill | 44c | 199.91$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88 | 345 | 47.5%164 W · 181 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9233…b93abacked Johnny Speeds | 43c | 176$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.05 | 34 | 58.8%20 W · 14 L | +4.1wins | +0.12per pick | 47cpaid | +18.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Johnny Speeds | 56c | 157.33$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.35 | 7,925 | 50.4%3,997 W · 3,928 L | +179.4wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2e3c…08babacked Johnny Speeds | 61c | 151.12$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.47 | 4,691 | 43.6%2,043 W · 2,648 L | -83.2wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf9be…a0c1backed Johnny Speeds | 46c | 148.85$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.91 | 447 | 48.1%215 W · 232 L | +17.3wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe8e1…49ddbacked Johnny Speeds | 74c | 145.16$107 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.16 | 1,398 | 48.4%676 W · 722 L | +11.6wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x505f…645ebacked Johnny Speeds | 57c | 134.23$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.03 | 2,604 | 52.6%1,371 W · 1,233 L | +98.0wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x913c…39b3backed Johnny Speeds | 66c | 110.27$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.56 | 26 | 30.8%8 W · 18 L | -3.0wins | -0.12per pick | 42cpaid | -47.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0b9f…1f47backed Johnny Speeds | 34c | 91.18$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.18 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +0.9wins | +0.09per pick | 51cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf4f8…5bf1backed illwill | 29c | 90$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.28 | 1,304 | 26.5%345 W · 959 L | -89.4wins | -0.07per pick | 33cpaid | -29.2%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc63b…6e4ebacked illwill | 30c | 81$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.66 | 363 | 34.2%124 W · 239 L | -6.4wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4177…a2b4backed illwill | 49c | 59.12$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.97 | 1,248 | 41.3%516 W · 732 L | +5.1wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbb8e…08c1backed illwill | 24c | 52$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.28 | 2,362 | 46.6%1,100 W · 1,262 L | -53.1wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked illwill | 37c | 42.57$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.66 | 5,511 | 47%2,590 W · 2,921 L | +42.0wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked illwill | 57c | 37$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.09 | 2,776 | 37.4%1,038 W · 1,738 L | -140.2wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -20.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5d05…f729backed illwill | 44c | 27$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.88 | 188 | 50%94 W · 94 L | +3.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe245…3bc8backed Johnny Speeds | 56c | 27$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.88 | 217 | 56.7%123 W · 94 L | -6.4wins | -0.03per pick | 60cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x299f…2c50backed Johnny Speeds | 42c | 25.72$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.95 | 721 | 39.7%286 W · 435 L | -25.9wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5929…4684backed Johnny Speeds | 55c | 21.82$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.93 | 4,064 | 50.9%2,067 W · 1,997 L | +69.5wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in CS2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Counter-Strike: illwill vs Johnny Speeds - Map 1 Winnerthis page
- Counter-Strike: illwill vs Johnny Speeds - Map 2 Winnerillwill won
- Games Total: O/U 2.5Over won
- Map 2: Odd/Even Total Kills?Even won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.