CS2 · resolved market

Counter-Strike: illwill vs Johnny Speeds - Map 2 Winner

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe39c76b69d53b262cc63687adda5fa1c003d3b98d26412a189917f9c47f069b8

Rebuilt 6 hours ago.

Winning outcome: illwillof illwill, Johnny Speeds
Resolved: Apr 29, 2026, EDTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: CS2every record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $52,444
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $56,173

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $52,444 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 55 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in CS2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in CS2
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x26f8…3452backed Johnny Speeds	63c	17,000$10,685 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10,684.51	202	49.5%100 W · 102 L	-9.9wins	-0.05per pick	54cpaid	+13.8%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0xdbdd…a5debacked illwill	29c	4,299$1,249 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$3,050.49	7,990	50.4%4,029 W · 3,961 L	+180.9wins	+0.02per pick	48cpaid	-2.1%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x928a…8044backed illwill	46c	3,675$1,675 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$2,000.21	203	58.6%119 W · 84 L	+1.2wins	+0.01per pick	58cpaid	-0.2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd055…28d0backed illwill	37c	3,629$1,343 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$2,286.14	659	46.9%309 W · 350 L	+18.3wins	+0.03per pick	44cpaid	+6.5%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xad72…4f5ebacked illwill	37c	2,000$740 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,260	245	38.4%94 W · 151 L	-5.0wins	-0.02per pick	40cpaid	-4.7%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x82bf…de71backed illwill	39c	1,268$496 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$771.65	623	50.9%317 W · 306 L	+18.5wins	+0.03per pick	48cpaid	-1.4%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc386…386fbacked illwill	36c	958$342 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$615.95	262	45.4%119 W · 143 L	+13.7wins	+0.05per pick	40cpaid	+30.8%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0x2690…4089backed illwill	37c	948.78$351 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$597.73	23	52.2%12 W · 11 L	+3.3wins	+0.14per pick	38cpaid	+40.3%equal weight	58+0.07 edge/pick
0x51db…f9b3backed illwill	47c	860.74$402 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$459.08	6,501	42.9%2,791 W · 3,710 L	-79.3wins	-0.01per pick	44cpaid	-21.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4713…4d21backed illwill	31c	847.25$266 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$581.62	5,341	31.3%1,674 W · 3,667 L	-390.7wins	-0.07per pick	39cpaid	-37.2%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0x7333…ca16backed Johnny Speeds	1c	840.26$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.4	103	0%0 W · 103 L	-1.6wins	-0.02per pick	2cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2757…55f0backed Johnny Speeds	49c	797$391 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$390.98	246	41.9%103 W · 143 L	-14.4wins	-0.06per pick	48cpaid	-13.2%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0x961a…aa6abacked Johnny Speeds	29c	782.56$229 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$228.56	275	48%132 W · 143 L	-0.4wins	0.00per pick	48cpaid	-1.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x949e…20afbacked illwill	24c	692$164 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$528.26	434	37.6%163 W · 271 L	+3.1wins	+0.01per pick	37cpaid	+1.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7479…e171backed illwill	37c	650.01$241 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$409.51	101	33.7%34 W · 67 L	-14.2wins	-0.14per pick	48cpaid	-42.1%equal weight	38-0.11 edge/pick
0x72aa…90e0backed illwill	74c	610.29$449 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$161.27	4,238	49.2%2,085 W · 2,153 L	+60.6wins	+0.01per pick	48cpaid	-10.7%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0xcf00…353fbacked illwill	33c	525.84$173 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$352.41	147	42.2%62 W · 85 L	+5.5wins	+0.04per pick	38cpaid	+10.1%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0xcb5b…f243backed illwill	18c	502.1$89 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$413.31	4,038	48.1%1,943 W · 2,095 L	-23.9wins	-0.01per pick	49cpaid	-11.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf4f8…5bf1backed illwill	36c	489$178 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$311.5	1,305	26.4%345 W · 960 L	-89.7wins	-0.07per pick	33cpaid	-29.2%equal weight	43-0.07 edge/pick
0xe911…3d4ebacked illwill	39c	421.8$164 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$258.22	2,798	37.6%1,051 W · 1,747 L	-138.2wins	-0.05per pick	43cpaid	-20.6%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x7a14…d748backed illwill	57c	413.23$236 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$177.24	573	58.8%337 W · 236 L	+16.1wins	+0.03per pick	56cpaid	+1.4%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa9f5…937fbacked illwill	24c	344.94$84 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$261.25	3,949	36.5%1,443 W · 2,506 L	-201.4wins	-0.05per pick	42cpaid	-29.2%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0x505f…645ebacked illwill	33c	256.82$84 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$172.79	2,605	52.6%1,371 W · 1,234 L	+97.5wins	+0.04per pick	49cpaid	-3.6%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0xbfd7…f0bfbacked illwill	37c	241.74$89 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$152.3	5,580	47.2%2,632 W · 2,948 L	+47.0wins	+0.01per pick	46cpaid	-4.2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xadaf…aefdbacked Johnny Speeds	57c	200$114 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$114	849	37.8%321 W · 528 L	-20.1wins	-0.02per pick	40cpaid	-6.9%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0xc0f1…8680backed Johnny Speeds	54c	200$108 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$108	2,527	43.1%1,088 W · 1,439 L	+42.6wins	+0.02per pick	41cpaid	-3.2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc63b…6e4ebacked illwill	12c	198.59$24 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$174.27	363	34.2%124 W · 239 L	-6.4wins	-0.02per pick	36cpaid	-15.9%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8f93…bffabacked illwill	63c	197$124 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$73.12	789	63.8%503 W · 286 L	-2.5wins	0.00per pick	64cpaid	-3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xf56c…fcbdbacked illwill	33c	166.67$55 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$111.67	357	49.9%178 W · 179 L	-5.3wins	-0.01per pick	51cpaid	-3.6%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x99f7…1a59backed illwill	12c	161.05$19 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$141.72	579	35.1%203 W · 376 L	-11.2wins	-0.02per pick	37cpaid	-11.5%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xbb8e…08c1backed illwill	36c	145$53 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$92.28	2,393	46.7%1,118 W · 1,275 L	-53.1wins	-0.02per pick	49cpaid	-14.4%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2e3c…08babacked Johnny Speeds	56c	139.99$78 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$78.41	4,754	43.6%2,071 W · 2,683 L	-85.1wins	-0.02per pick	45cpaid	-21.9%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x98af…b216backed illwill	14c	133$19 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$114.38	133	24.8%33 W · 100 L	-3.7wins	-0.03per pick	28cpaid	-22.8%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x8b4c…1715backed illwill	15c	133$20 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$113.05	424	27.1%115 W · 309 L	+13.8wins	+0.03per pick	24cpaid	+10%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x904e…0becbacked Johnny Speeds	64c	130.12$83 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$83.19	5,034	37.2%1,874 W · 3,160 L	-260.4wins	-0.05per pick	42cpaid	-32.6%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0x2f64…ba01backed Johnny Speeds	46c	123.64$57 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$57.2	172	36%62 W · 110 L	-6.3wins	-0.04per pick	40cpaid	-13.1%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0xf9be…a0c1backed illwill	32c	122$39 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$82.59	447	48.1%215 W · 232 L	+17.3wins	+0.04per pick	44cpaid	-2.3%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x4ade…fb15backed illwill	37c	121.72$45 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$77.04	197	48.7%96 W · 101 L	+2.1wins	+0.01per pick	48cpaid	+0.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1d24…20b3backed Johnny Speeds	73c	113.12$83 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$82.85	435	44.6%194 W · 241 L	+3.3wins	+0.01per pick	44cpaid	-9.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xce5f…ab17backed illwill	12c	100$12 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$88	332	41.6%138 W · 194 L	+5.7wins	+0.02per pick	40cpaid	+1.6%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xde4b…3b7dbacked illwill	66c	100$66 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$34	318	52.8%168 W · 150 L	-11.1wins	-0.03per pick	56cpaid	-12.4%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0xa07d…a037backed Johnny Speeds	33c	91.66$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30	2,102	16.8%353 W · 1,749 L	-286.5wins	-0.14per pick	30cpaid	-47.2%equal weight	35-0.13 edge/pick
0x5929…4684backed illwill	50c	90.7$45 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$45.59	4,099	51%2,091 W · 2,008 L	+74.6wins	+0.02per pick	49cpaid	-6.1%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb9ab…f282backed illwill	58c	90$52 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$37.8	1,089	50.9%554 W · 535 L	+38.4wins	+0.04per pick	47cpaid	+5.7%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x0fe0…fb5bbacked Johnny Speeds	59c	80.04$47 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$47	412	54.9%226 W · 186 L	-1.4wins	0.00per pick	55cpaid	-8.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xe8e1…49ddbacked illwill	42c	76.46$32 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$44.3	1,398	48.4%676 W · 722 L	+11.6wins	+0.01per pick	48cpaid	-10.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4301…fd19backed Johnny Speeds	70c	71.43$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	38	55.3%21 W · 17 L	-0.5wins	-0.01per pick	57cpaid	-14.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc08e…ebfdbacked illwill	25c	59.23$15 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$44.17	23	34.8%8 W · 15 L	-2.2wins	-0.10per pick	45cpaid	-35%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0xf6c8…a184backed illwill	43c	50$22 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$28.5	644	39.8%256 W · 388 L	+6.8wins	+0.01per pick	39cpaid	-7.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x54e0…b02cbacked illwill	33c	46.28$15 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$31.2	1,659	32.7%542 W · 1,117 L	-49.4wins	-0.03per pick	36cpaid	-12.5%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x93e3…0af5backed Johnny Speeds	78c	42.27$33 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$33	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.8wins	-0.78per pick	78cpaid	-100%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xac02…b942backed illwill	62c	39.71$25 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$14.98	21	47.6%10 W · 11 L	-1.7wins	-0.08per pick	56cpaid	-13.9%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x5fd8…54b3backed illwill	64c	31.25$20 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$11.25	118	50%59 W · 59 L	-7.8wins	-0.07per pick	57cpaid	-12.4%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0x1c67…a479backed illwill	38c	30$11 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$18.6	202	58.9%119 W · 83 L	+3.8wins	+0.02per pick	57cpaid	+3%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf2ae…0864backed Johnny Speeds	71c	19$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.49	932	61.7%575 W · 357 L	-4.0wins	0.00per pick	62cpaid	-2.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in CS2 and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Counter-Strike: illwill vs Johnny Speeds - Map 2 Winnerthis page
Counter-Strike: illwill vs Johnny Speeds - Map 1 WinnerJohnny Speeds won
Games Total: O/U 2.5Over won
Map 2: Odd/Even Total Kills?Even won

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Counter-Strike: illwill vs Johnny Speeds - Map 2 Winner

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event