Tennis · resolved market
Australian Open Men's: Alex Bolt vs Elias Ymer
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x30497b8e0d0d8703718e6d496bb7c497acb8f6f9eb7a32eb8beca784846cb446
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Ymerof Bolt, Ymer
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $49,477
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $50,924
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $49,477 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 36 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x83d9…651bbacked Bolt | 48c | 7,770$3,759 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,759.27 | 46 | 54.3%25 W · 21 L | +4.7wins | +0.10per pick | 44cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2727…eef4backed Bolt | 28c | 6,312$1,745 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,744.64 | 191 | 34%65 W · 126 L | +6.4wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Bolt | 1c | 4,147$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.54 | 2,331 | 7.9%183 W · 2,148 L | -56.9wins | -0.02per pick | 10cpaid | -60.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Ymer | 58c | 2,748$1,584 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,164.34 | 8,217 | 45.5%3,737 W · 4,480 L | +166.6wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ad8…9bc1backed Bolt | 7c | 2,452$179 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$178.66 | 138 | 34.1%47 W · 91 L | -8.2wins | -0.06per pick | 40cpaid | -42.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Ymer | 50c | 1,761$888 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$873.05 | 7,018 | 43.2%3,031 W · 3,987 L | +124.9wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe6f0…5701backed Bolt | 19c | 1,101$206 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$205.99 | 186 | 44.6%83 W · 103 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa00f…8e56backed Bolt | 22c | 470.7$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.79 | 161 | 50.3%81 W · 80 L | +6.4wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbc67…5286backed Bolt | 37c | 338$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125.06 | 470 | 57.2%269 W · 201 L | +16.8wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1c8c…237dbacked Bolt | 24c | 310$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.87 | 64 | 32.8%21 W · 43 L | -8.6wins | -0.13per pick | 46cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Ymer | 63c | 257.4$162 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.66 | 2,489 | 45.2%1,126 W · 1,363 L | -27.4wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x70ac…0c7dbacked Ymer | 76c | 251.3$192 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.13 | 2,537 | 53.6%1,361 W · 1,176 L | +61.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked Ymer | 73c | 241$175 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.19 | 1,852 | 44.5%825 W · 1,027 L | -20.3wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf37…993fbacked Bolt | 42c | 229.45$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.49 | 295 | 33.6%99 W · 196 L | -8.7wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x29c0…efaabacked Ymer | 38c | 211$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$130.82 | 551 | 43.4%239 W · 312 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe09e…5047backed Bolt | 12c | 143.83$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.62 | 74 | 44.6%33 W · 41 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x972b…78babacked Ymer | 53c | 125.7$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.12 | 2,982 | 39.1%1,167 W · 1,815 L | -109.1wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -30.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3abf…b143backed Bolt | 67c | 124.3$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.55 | 451 | 47.2%213 W · 238 L | +8.7wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xecae…b906backed Bolt | 31c | 121.84$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.77 | 1,026 | 46.8%480 W · 546 L | +14.1wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x06c0…bc23backed Ymer | 71c | 113$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.77 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | +3,162.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7f83…a491backed Bolt | 31c | 110$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.3 | 257 | 43.6%112 W · 145 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf1dc…1068backed Bolt | 16c | 108.58$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.04 | 33 | 51.5%17 W · 16 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8df0…96a6backed Ymer | 34c | 100.01$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.96 | 53 | 45.3%24 W · 29 L | -6.0wins | -0.11per pick | 57cpaid | -25%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed Ymer | 49c | 95$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.07 | 884 | 55%486 W · 398 L | +37.4wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3a8e…b505backed Bolt | 52c | 80.84$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.36 | 44 | 61.4%27 W · 17 L | +4.6wins | +0.10per pick | 51cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc6c8…dd64backed Bolt | 63c | 79.37$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 134 | 61.9%83 W · 51 L | +3.4wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x114f…4602backed Ymer | 75c | 68.48$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.12 | 15 | 86.7%13 W · 2 L | +1.5wins | +0.10per pick | 77cpaid | +12%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa4ba…c5d8backed Ymer | 37c | 68$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.84 | 602 | 40.5%244 W · 358 L | -12.2wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x57d5…0bbdbacked Ymer | 32c | 65.87$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.73 | 276 | 27.2%75 W · 201 L | -25.2wins | -0.09per pick | 36cpaid | -36.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc6fa…51e5backed Ymer | 76c | 64.84$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.56 | 262 | 44.7%117 W · 145 L | -15.6wins | -0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -17%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcdd8…e7d4backed Ymer | 70c | 42.86$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.86 | 30 | 80%24 W · 6 L | +1.3wins | +0.04per pick | 76cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6385…e191backed Ymer | 54c | 35.64$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.5 | 35 | 45.7%16 W · 19 L | +1.6wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0f8e…3082backed Ymer | 74c | 32.87$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.55 | 1,218 | 41.1%500 W · 718 L | -30.1wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -16%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x66b1…340fbacked Bolt | 62c | 27.94$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.32 | 1,158 | 44.4%514 W · 644 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4dc8…6abbbacked Ymer | 69c | 21.74$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.74 | 10 | 90%9 W · 1 L | +2.0wins | +0.20per pick | 70cpaid | +31.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9b89…99e2backed Ymer | 66c | 19.61$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.65 | 78 | 56.4%44 W · 34 L | +2.6wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Australian Open Men's: Alex Bolt vs Elias Ymerthis page
- Bolt vs. Ymer: Match O/U 22.5Over won
- Set 1 Winner: Bolt vs YmerYmer won
- Set Handicap: Bolt (-1.5) vs Ymer (+1.5)Ymer won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.