Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 10°C on July 4?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x304a0607792b162fddadc654fe969951710756fa36e4c9e1db1c0b7b38fd7a15
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $7,327
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $8,874
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,327 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 41 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 21c | 303.29$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.28 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 22c | 301.96$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$234.44 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x85db…1423backed Yes | 77c | 285.01$219 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.54 | 66 | 66.7%44 W · 22 L | +4.4wins | +0.07per pick | 60cpaid | +31.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 9c | 236.61$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.09 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6424…2718backed No | 75c | 209.95$157 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$156.84 | 427 | 54.6%233 W · 194 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 10c | 204.32$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.37 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked Yes | 18c | 150.01$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$123.2 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x802d…d59abacked Yes | 21c | 135.15$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.44 | 1,298 | 41.7%541 W · 757 L | +53.2wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 16c | 115.53$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.87 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcd15…b352backed Yes | 14c | 95.4$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.95 | 1,857 | 18.7%347 W · 1,510 L | +77.0wins | +0.04per pick | 15cpaid | +25.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 17c | 84.65$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.76 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa7fb…182cbacked Yes | 73c | 81.57$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.92 | 40 | 50%20 W · 20 L | -3.3wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4a3b…256ebacked Yes | 52c | 78.67$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.76 | 233 | 62.2%145 W · 88 L | +33.5wins | +0.14per pick | 48cpaid | +31.9%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xabbd…d4bcbacked Yes | 16c | 69.07$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.94 | 130 | 10.8%14 W · 116 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 10cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf6be…f6a3backed Yes | 58c | 67.67$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.71 | 299 | 41.1%123 W · 176 L | +20.8wins | +0.07per pick | 34cpaid | +19.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x74ff…3208backed Yes | 29c | 65.09$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.31 | 104 | 36.5%38 W · 66 L | -1.7wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 74c | 61.84$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.76 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa990…dc90backed Yes | 21c | 61.17$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.14 | 591 | 44.5%263 W · 328 L | +8.0wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x156b…5808backed Yes | 31c | 59.99$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.39 | 405 | 35.6%144 W · 261 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 69c | 55$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.2 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe37a…844dbacked No | 77c | 52.98$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.02 | 128 | 76.6%98 W · 30 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 75cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 52c | 51.07$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.37 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8547…39abbacked Yes | 26c | 50$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.85 | 148 | 33.1%49 W · 99 L | -4.4wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 58c | 40.63$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.36 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xdca4…e93dbacked Yes | 58c | 37$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.7 | 2,501 | 45.5%1,138 W · 1,363 L | +26.8wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe9b1…79d7backed No | 70c | 36.74$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.83 | 889 | 73.2%651 W · 238 L | +20.3wins | +0.02per pick | 71cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x84c2…c908backed Yes | 35c | 33.88$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.17 | 57 | 24.6%14 W · 43 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7bbe…b95ebacked Yes | 44c | 33.53$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.68 | 419 | 66.6%279 W · 140 L | +36.9wins | +0.09per pick | 58cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 55c | 32$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.6 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcc2c…0a2cbacked Yes | 59c | 30.46$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.44 | 1,550 | 56.7%879 W · 671 L | -83.2wins | -0.05per pick | 62cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc1fa…9611backed No | 69c | 28.99$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 155 | 55.5%86 W · 69 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaafc…ec67backed Yes | 45c | 25.38$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.04 | 447 | 57.3%256 W · 191 L | +53.9wins | +0.12per pick | 45cpaid | +24%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xbff7…554fbacked Yes | 71c | 24.79$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.19 | 1,026 | 60.8%624 W · 402 L | +11.0wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4167…f99abacked No | 75c | 20$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1,036 | 68.6%711 W · 325 L | -33.9wins | -0.03per pick | 72cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xea83…7393backed No | 74c | 19.7$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.58 | 1,445 | 60.1%868 W · 577 L | +5.0wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9eda…6e19backed No | 65c | 18.73$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.17 | 775 | 55.2%428 W · 347 L | -13.9wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf15b…8c10backed No | 72c | 15.34$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.04 | 93 | 66.7%62 W · 31 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 68cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x402e…26e5backed Yes | 75c | 15.03$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.69 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.11per pick | 44cpaid | -55.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x451a…3b01backed No | 69c | 14.8$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.21 | 178 | 58.4%104 W · 74 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xee02…ce88backed No | 68c | 14.71$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.06 | 107 | 64.5%69 W · 38 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x286d…825abacked No | 73c | 13.7$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 625 | 55.2%345 W · 280 L | -12.1wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 10°C on July 4?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 11°C on July 4?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 12°C on July 4?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 13°C on July 4?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.