Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 11°C on July 4?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf6d78c61ab6af7f0bcd0942cc18c746e03ade9376982a62b04e72debff6d29a4
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $9,673
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $10,097
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,673 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 60 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6430…af02backed Yes | 7c | 714$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.98 | 14 | 14.3%2 W · 12 L | -2.7wins | -0.19per pick | 34cpaid | -81.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6ae0…7483backed Yes | 46c | 681.11$311 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$311.23 | 105 | 39%41 W · 64 L | -3.2wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x75cc…6b15backed Yes | 50c | 416.16$208 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$208 | 1,181 | 49.4%583 W · 598 L | -9.1wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c0a…a2c3backed No | 63c | 287.78$181 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.51 | 1,280 | 51.2%655 W · 625 L | -33.7wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 56c | 225.12$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.99 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked No | 65c | 170.7$112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.91 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 59c | 152.44$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.86 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf73b…10bfbacked Yes | 33c | 146$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.18 | 283 | 44.5%126 W · 157 L | +6.9wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcd15…b352backed Yes | 11c | 94.77$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.87 | 1,857 | 18.7%347 W · 1,510 L | +77.0wins | +0.04per pick | 15cpaid | +25.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 57c | 93.82$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.11 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6546…04e1backed Yes | 45c | 86.81$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.75 | 371 | 44.2%164 W · 207 L | +4.6wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe086…0450backed No | 56c | 81.34$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.63 | 1,243 | 52.5%652 W · 591 L | -18.7wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 46c | 80.07$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.14 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8edc…80d8backed Yes | 40c | 76.88$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.75 | 1,179 | 56.4%665 W · 514 L | +19.0wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaff9…64ffbacked Yes | 38c | 65$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.46 | 2,674 | 30%803 W · 1,871 L | +5.4wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x45e7…d77cbacked No | 56c | 64.89$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.55 | 495 | 51.9%257 W · 238 L | -25.1wins | -0.05per pick | 57cpaid | -10%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 18c | 63.47$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.54 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x040b…bbc5backed Yes | 43c | 62.38$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.82 | 54 | 44.4%24 W · 30 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8ad3…e651backed Yes | 33c | 61.51$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 333 | 51.7%172 W · 161 L | -7.3wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x156b…5808backed Yes | 43c | 59.99$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.8 | 405 | 35.6%144 W · 261 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 57c | 59.16$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.44 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 54c | 58.2$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.77 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 59c | 55$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.61 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x74ff…3208backed Yes | 44c | 50.09$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.99 | 104 | 36.5%38 W · 66 L | -1.7wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed Yes | 38c | 50$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 2,530 | 50.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L | -48.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xebdb…5ac4backed No | 54c | 50$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23 | 850 | 49.8%423 W · 427 L | -10.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7eb5…9400backed No | 52c | 50$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24 | 527 | 58.8%310 W · 217 L | +13.2wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xabbd…d4bcbacked Yes | 47c | 50$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.5 | 130 | 10.8%14 W · 116 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 10cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8547…39abbacked Yes | 33c | 49.99$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.68 | 148 | 33.1%49 W · 99 L | -4.4wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x28ea…7367backed Yes | 46c | 48.61$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.36 | 1,896 | 61.5%1,166 W · 730 L | -5.9wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x36ff…f2a6backed Yes | 44c | 45.45$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 621 | 37.7%234 W · 387 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed No | 31c | 45.28$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.05 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf333…ba41backed Yes | 42c | 44.69$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.77 | 869 | 49.8%433 W · 436 L | -24.0wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc1fa…9611backed Yes | 45c | 44.44$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 155 | 55.5%86 W · 69 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5647…de1dbacked Yes | 45c | 44.05$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 479 | 35.3%169 W · 310 L | -6.3wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3290…53cbbacked Yes | 69c | 43.69$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 45 | 13.3%6 W · 39 L | -3.8wins | -0.09per pick | 22cpaid | -44.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 30c | 42.74$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.71 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xb57e…0b91backed No | 55c | 39.32$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.7 | 464 | 57.5%267 W · 197 L | -12.6wins | -0.03per pick | 60cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8859…89d6backed Yes | 40c | 38.43$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.37 | 95 | 41.1%39 W · 56 L | -9.2wins | -0.10per pick | 51cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7747…fe40backed No | 79c | 38.34$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.86 | 65 | 60%39 W · 26 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x34c1…640abacked Yes | 40c | 37.44$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | +141.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9dc5…d6b7backed No | 54c | 37.39$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.35 | 274 | 61.7%169 W · 105 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb58…407abacked Yes | 36c | 35.4$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.87 | 2,424 | 26.2%636 W · 1,788 L | +18.0wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 56c | 35$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.4 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb0a5…0a36backed No | 53c | 34.81$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.51 | 2,086 | 51.8%1,080 W · 1,006 L | -45.0wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8971…809dbacked No | 71c | 34.48$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 1,959 | 46%901 W · 1,058 L | -51.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaf38…c19ebacked Yes | 45c | 33.44$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 612 | 49.5%303 W · 309 L | +30.2wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf673…1c49backed Yes | 48c | 31.43$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 47 | 53.2%25 W · 22 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -11%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c9e…3a21backed No | 58c | 30$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.6 | 1,174 | 54.9%644 W · 530 L | +49.3wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1632…ad5abacked No | 59c | 25.42$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.43 | 502 | 61%306 W · 196 L | -17.9wins | -0.04per pick | 65cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcff7…2fb1backed No | 56c | 23.43$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.42 | 214 | 51.9%111 W · 103 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0b72…dc2ebacked No | 54c | 22.66$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.37 | 284 | 41.5%118 W · 166 L | -18.8wins | -0.07per pick | 48cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xea83…7393backed No | 64c | 22.6$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.07 | 1,445 | 60.1%868 W · 577 L | +5.0wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfaf3…782cbacked No | 63c | 20.99$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.77 | 1,876 | 63%1,181 W · 695 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe8fc…0d3bbacked No | 55c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9 | 648 | 59.1%383 W · 265 L | -21.2wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6fef…66ecbacked No | 66c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.8 | 35 | 45.7%16 W · 19 L | -3.8wins | -0.11per pick | 56cpaid | -29.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x38d3…93d8backed No | 57c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.6 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +57.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9c3e…df5dbacked No | 61c | 18$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.08 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 70cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe9b1…79d7backed No | 68c | 15.12$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.84 | 889 | 73.2%651 W · 238 L | +20.3wins | +0.02per pick | 71cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd717…3b85backed No | 74c | 14.36$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.73 | 2,050 | 57.4%1,177 W · 873 L | +72.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 11°C on July 4?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 10°C on July 4?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 12°C on July 4?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 13°C on July 4?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.