Bundesliga · resolved market
Will Bayern Munich beat RB Leipzig?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x305ffa04930334f0d35155f2320e5c9d8f5cbfcda8763e858e2b9d43a6c2ff52
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $50,833
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $51,529
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $50,833 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 49 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xfba6…375cbacked No | 46c | 29,043$13,230 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15,812.64 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.06per pick | 56cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb786…b18dbacked Yes | 54c | 21,663$11,638 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11,638.49 | 148 | 46.6%69 W · 79 L | +3.6wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x29c0…efaabacked Yes | 56c | 9,557$5,385 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,385.22 | 193 | 47.2%91 W · 102 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x11d7…52e1backed Yes | 60c | 2,613$1,577 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,576.72 | 31 | 58.1%18 W · 13 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1867…92cabacked No | 42c | 2,000$840 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,160 | 87 | 52.9%46 W · 41 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa9d3…9d4bbacked No | 42c | 1,891$788 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,102.68 | 242 | 58.7%142 W · 100 L | +11.2wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd69a…81eabacked Yes | 43c | 1,386$603 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$602.7 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.14per pick | 36cpaid | +73.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5e42…9003backed Yes | 60c | 1,132$684 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$684 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 62cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x480d…f219backed No | 40c | 1,000$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$600 | 45 | 57.8%26 W · 19 L | +1.2wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe256…12f8backed Yes | 58c | 862.07$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.58per pick | 58cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaee8…6eebbacked Yes | 60c | 833.33$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.20per pick | 70cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x10b0…8525backed Yes | 60c | 800$480 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$480 | 168 | 50%84 W · 84 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4cf4…15ddbacked Yes | 60c | 653.6$390 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$390.44 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 64cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9320…95ddbacked Yes | 65c | 639.25$413 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$413.36 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 65cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf586…f614backed Yes | 59c | 500$295 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$295 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.59per pick | 59cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x246c…4c1abacked Yes | 61c | 498.2$304 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$303.9 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +51.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xafbc…a8b5backed Yes | 44c | 404.35$176 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$175.97 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -31.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b7e…6a9fbacked Yes | 61c | 327.87$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 31 | 51.6%16 W · 15 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x62a8…97d0backed No | 43c | 277.54$119 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$158.2 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.57per pick | 43cpaid | +132.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c85…77c6backed Yes | 57c | 262.71$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$149.72 | 84 | 59.5%50 W · 34 L | +2.9wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4e0a…e4e6backed No | 43c | 233$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$132.81 | 256 | 59.4%152 W · 104 L | +9.8wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4592…3d1cbacked No | 43c | 223.26$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$127.26 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.57per pick | 43cpaid | +132.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfcfe…d420backed Yes | 60c | 213.11$127 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$127 | 23 | 60.9%14 W · 9 L | +3.5wins | +0.15per pick | 46cpaid | +40.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x26ae…97b8backed No | 41c | 184.91$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$109.68 | 74 | 66.2%49 W · 25 L | +5.1wins | +0.07per pick | 59cpaid | +12.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 42c | 175.01$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.32 | 79 | 48.1%38 W · 41 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc8b4…f05dbacked No | 41c | 168.79$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.65 | 50 | 52%26 W · 24 L | +2.6wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x98cc…7470backed Yes | 38c | 161.92$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.53 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.13per pick | 53cpaid | -38.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a6d…2a58backed Yes | 60c | 120.77$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.46 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.3wins | -0.67per pick | 67cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb5d2…317bbacked No | 39c | 115.99$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.75 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.17per pick | 50cpaid | +34.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x73af…9af8backed Yes | 60c | 102.6$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.56 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.60per pick | 60cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8239…ddd7backed Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 15cpaid | -84.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed Yes | 55c | 100$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 337 | 37.4%126 W · 211 L | -11.2wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb8c4…7385backed Yes | 55c | 96.42$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.03 | 157 | 42%66 W · 91 L | +4.7wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x54b5…4b31backed Yes | 38c | 95$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.1 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x71c1…e358backed Yes | 56c | 89.27$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.99 | 188 | 40.4%76 W · 112 L | +7.9wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0195…23d0backed Yes | 60c | 83.33$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.60per pick | 60cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc599…2cecbacked No | 43c | 70$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.9 | 118 | 60.2%71 W · 47 L | +7.3wins | +0.06per pick | 54cpaid | +10%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe59e…4af8backed Yes | 60c | 69.54$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.60per pick | 60cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xda0f…f0e7backed Yes | 33c | 53.77$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.74 | 29 | 51.7%15 W · 14 L | +5.4wins | +0.19per pick | 33cpaid | +257.6%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x99b7…3a93backed Yes | 55c | 52.98$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.14 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.55per pick | 55cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xed61…9aa3backed Yes | 31c | 50$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.5 | 150 | 64%96 W · 54 L | +25.0wins | +0.17per pick | 47cpaid | +53.3%equal weight | 66+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4b…5a92backed Yes | 61c | 40.98$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 47 | 51.1%24 W · 23 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x21af…673fbacked Yes | 63c | 39.68$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.63per pick | 63cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe6ac…957dbacked Yes | 58c | 25.86$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.14per pick | 48cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x00a8…8d58backed Yes | 60c | 25$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.60per pick | 60cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd630…7849backed Yes | 40c | 25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xab56…f98fbacked Yes | 62c | 24.19$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | +1.0wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +19.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbb45…f885backed Yes | 60c | 20.89$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.60per pick | 60cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf1e5…18f4backed Yes | 61c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.2 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 62cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Bayern Munich beat RB Leipzig?this page
- Will Bayern Munich vs. RB Leipzig end in a draw?Yes won
- Will RB Leipzig beat Bayern Munich?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.