Bundesliga · resolved market
Will RB Leipzig beat Bayern Munich?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe48d00530a79a5ed54d156a8f4e18b8fc4607447d5706c0771b903e6a4f42fc6
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $54,964
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $59,434
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $54,964 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 25 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xfba6…375cbacked Yes | 26c | 30,000$7,681 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,681.24 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.06per pick | 56cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb786…b18dbacked No | 67c | 28,924$19,380 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9,543.66 | 148 | 46.6%69 W · 79 L | +3.6wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xda0f…f0e7backed Yes | 1c | 5,101$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.01 | 29 | 51.7%15 W · 14 L | +5.4wins | +0.19per pick | 33cpaid | +257.6%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x29c0…efaabacked No | 74c | 4,631$3,427 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,204.06 | 193 | 47.2%91 W · 102 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2f79…1608backed No | 77c | 4,000$3,078 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$922.13 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +2.0wins | +0.22per pick | 56cpaid | +42.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x11d7…52e1backed No | 78c | 2,935$2,303 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$632.34 | 31 | 58.1%18 W · 13 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4cf4…15ddbacked No | 80c | 719.59$575 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$144.72 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 64cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaee8…6eebbacked No | 80c | 625$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$125 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.20per pick | 70cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe6ac…957dbacked No | 39c | 604.96$237 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$367.48 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.14per pick | 48cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa9d3…9d4bbacked No | 77c | 520$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$119.6 | 242 | 58.7%142 W · 100 L | +11.2wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xafbc…a8b5backed No | 73c | 478.28$347 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$131.17 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -31.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c85…77c6backed Yes | 80c | 233$186 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$186.07 | 84 | 59.5%50 W · 34 L | +2.9wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6332…6128backed No | 62c | 193.6$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.57 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.31per pick | 64cpaid | -46.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4e0a…e4e6backed No | 77c | 179.85$138 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.41 | 256 | 59.4%152 W · 104 L | +9.8wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe9ea…810abacked No | 76c | 130$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.2 | 66 | 57.6%38 W · 28 L | +3.9wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f6…037cbacked No | 79c | 126.58$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.58 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +26.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed Yes | 23c | 100$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 337 | 37.4%126 W · 211 L | -11.2wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5902…59fabacked No | 61c | 91.93$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.85 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.3wins | +0.42per pick | 58cpaid | +73.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9d0b…c2b3backed Yes | 21c | 88$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.48 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2984…22f8backed No | 79c | 88$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.48 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +26.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x26ae…97b8backed No | 79c | 70$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.87 | 74 | 66.2%49 W · 25 L | +5.1wins | +0.07per pick | 59cpaid | +12.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5179…2b29backed No | 77c | 43$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.89 | 228 | 54.8%125 W · 103 L | +9.1wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc599…2cecbacked No | 77c | 39$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.97 | 118 | 60.2%71 W · 47 L | +7.3wins | +0.06per pick | 54cpaid | +10%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdd28…374abacked No | 80c | 29$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.8 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +52.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2392…0d4bbacked No | 63c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.4 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.37per pick | 63cpaid | +58.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will RB Leipzig beat Bayern Munich?this page
- Will Bayern Munich beat RB Leipzig?No won
- Will Bayern Munich vs. RB Leipzig end in a draw?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.