WNBA · resolved market
Indiana Fever vs. Las Vegas Aces: O/U 181.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x30685bc7e6fe2806647983670ac912c4573edda886673639ed69924af2acf346
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- WNBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $14,741
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $14,863
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $14,741 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 35 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in WNBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in WNBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9fad…5a9fbacked Over | 48c | 5,000$2,400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,400 | 61 | 54.1%33 W · 28 L | +3.4wins | +0.06per pick | 48cpaid | +9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb7f5…c669backed Under | 52c | 4,590$2,387 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,203.1 | 53 | 54.7%29 W · 24 L | +2.5wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeef6…cd4cbacked Under | 52c | 2,982$1,561 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,421.42 | 94 | 45.7%43 W · 51 L | -3.5wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Over | 49c | 2,923$1,430 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,430.29 | 1,787 | 51.7%924 W · 863 L | +54.1wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Over | 47c | 2,024$951 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$951.4 | 859 | 48.4%416 W · 443 L | +5.4wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4278…0e92backed Under | 50c | 2,000$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,000 | 66 | 50%33 W · 33 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x224a…a3d5backed Over | 49c | 1,135$556 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$555.82 | 796 | 48.7%388 W · 408 L | +6.9wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Under | 53c | 509.42$270 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$239.43 | 515 | 52.6%271 W · 244 L | +18.1wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x98ce…d417backed Under | 52c | 232.69$121 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$111.69 | 11 | 72.7%8 W · 3 L | +1.4wins | +0.13per pick | 60cpaid | +15.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x14f3…0796backed Under | 60c | 225.54$135 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.41 | 156 | 54.5%85 W · 71 L | +4.8wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe071…2d1abacked Under | 52c | 192.31$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.31 | 31 | 58.1%18 W · 13 L | +1.1wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x71bc…7fe4backed Over | 53c | 188.97$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 149 | 48.3%72 W · 77 L | -3.7wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Under | 53c | 152.23$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.55 | 391 | 50.4%197 W · 194 L | +10.5wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x84b8…d83abacked Under | 52c | 109.8$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.7 | 7 | 85.7%6 W · 1 L | +2.5wins | +0.36per pick | 49cpaid | +75.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf66e…14b7backed Under | 53c | 101$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.47 | 89 | 60.7%54 W · 35 L | +3.7wins | +0.04per pick | 57cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Over | 41c | 100.05$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.9 | 351 | 18.5%65 W · 286 L | -49.3wins | -0.14per pick | 33cpaid | -57.9%equal weight | 35-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x4836…859bbacked Over | 48c | 95$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.6 | 284 | 47.9%136 W · 148 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x755a…6da6backed Under | 53c | 79.25$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.25 | 88 | 60.2%53 W · 35 L | +6.2wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…4103backed Under | 61c | 76.05$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.48 | 564 | 55.1%311 W · 253 L | +27.0wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 72c | 70.09$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.29 | 1,632 | 50.2%819 W · 813 L | +37.2wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8d0c…c90abacked Under | 53c | 60$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.5 | 333 | 47.7%159 W · 174 L | -1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcdbd…d0dfbacked Under | 53c | 56$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.32 | 46 | 63%29 W · 17 L | +4.4wins | +0.10per pick | 53cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x113f…ae4dbacked Under | 52c | 50.94$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.45 | 30 | 63.3%19 W · 11 L | +3.6wins | +0.12per pick | 51cpaid | +24.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1b44…d8debacked Over | 35c | 50.56$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.68 | 75 | 50.7%38 W · 37 L | +7.7wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xac1a…8689backed Under | 53c | 50$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.5 | 42 | 52.4%22 W · 20 L | -1.4wins | -0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc593…ea8cbacked Under | 53c | 50$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.5 | 35 | 71.4%25 W · 10 L | +5.2wins | +0.15per pick | 56cpaid | +30%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x6701…d7d2backed Under | 53c | 50$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.5 | 73 | 60.3%44 W · 29 L | +4.9wins | +0.07per pick | 54cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2bf3…4f00backed Under | 60c | 45.63$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.25 | 59 | 69.5%41 W · 18 L | +7.6wins | +0.13per pick | 57cpaid | +16.7%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xdc6d…31cebacked Over | 34c | 44.11$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | +1.2wins | +0.07per pick | 34cpaid | +23.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6553…7a71backed Over | 48c | 35.09$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.84 | 327 | 43.7%143 W · 184 L | -23.7wins | -0.07per pick | 51cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0576…6232backed Under | 53c | 33.26$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.63 | 427 | 49.4%211 W · 216 L | -3.0wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd9ae…5310backed Over | 49c | 30.61$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 100 | 51%51 W · 49 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd4f9…84f7backed Under | 53c | 30$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.1 | 21 | 47.6%10 W · 11 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1715…a049backed Over | 48c | 29.4$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.01 | 123 | 43.9%54 W · 69 L | -6.8wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x67af…61eebacked Under | 69c | 25$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.75 | 352 | 54.3%191 W · 161 L | +21.0wins | +0.06per pick | 48cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in WNBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Indiana Fever vs. Las Vegas Aces: O/U 181.5this page
- A'ja Wilson: Assists O/U 2.5No won
- A'ja Wilson: Rebounds O/U 9.5No won
- Indiana Fever vs. Las Vegas AcesIndiana Fever won
- Indiana Fever vs. Las Vegas Aces: O/U 180.5Under won
- Indiana Fever vs. Las Vegas Aces: O/U 182.5Under won
- Indiana Fever vs. Las Vegas Aces: O/U 183.5Under won
- Indiana Fever vs. Las Vegas Aces: O/U 184.5Under won
- Spread: Las Vegas Aces (-3.5)Indiana Fever won
- Spread: Las Vegas Aces (-5.5)Indiana Fever won
- Spread: Las Vegas Aces (-6.5)Indiana Fever won
- Spread: Las Vegas Aces (-7.5)Indiana Fever won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.