WNBA · resolved market
Spread: Las Vegas Aces (-6.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd6f451964b9cb93819c8ede0ebaaf506aa0848126bd6a67a1b32179a43cf5c78
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Indiana Feverof Las Vegas Aces, Indiana Fever
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- WNBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $2,024
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $2,195
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $2,024 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 20 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in WNBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in WNBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc46e…9ed8backed Las Vegas Aces | 39c | 384.61$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6027…4320backed Indiana Fever | 61c | 252.2$155 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.57 | 296 | 54.4%161 W · 135 L | +11.5wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3f85…e91abacked Las Vegas Aces | 37c | 160.02$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 66 | 40.9%27 W · 39 L | -4.3wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdd5e…9040backed Indiana Fever | 63c | 151.86$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.33 | 243 | 47.7%116 W · 127 L | -5.1wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x51da…a701backed Indiana Fever | 66c | 150.52$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.52 | 161 | 53.4%86 W · 75 L | -4.8wins | -0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xafe4…f3f7backed Indiana Fever | 65c | 127$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.45 | 274 | 49.6%136 W · 138 L | +9.3wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xab56…e635backed Las Vegas Aces | 40c | 112.5$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +1.2wins | +0.15per pick | 47cpaid | +29.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5210…bd53backed Indiana Fever | 61c | 103.05$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.19 | 615 | 47%289 W · 326 L | -19.0wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed Las Vegas Aces | 25c | 95.19$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.77 | 347 | 26.5%92 W · 255 L | -20.7wins | -0.06per pick | 32cpaid | -39.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8d0c…c90abacked Las Vegas Aces | 36c | 89.99$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.4 | 323 | 46.7%151 W · 172 L | -4.7wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf333…038cbacked Indiana Fever | 73c | 71.67$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.35 | 32 | 65.6%21 W · 11 L | +1.5wins | +0.05per pick | 61cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd0e3…99a1backed Las Vegas Aces | 39c | 64.1$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.9wins | +0.10per pick | 45cpaid | +24.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6770…c3bdbacked Indiana Fever | 76c | 50$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12 | 113 | 51.3%58 W · 55 L | +2.8wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe8e0…7eecbacked Indiana Fever | 76c | 50$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.04 | 239 | 55.2%132 W · 107 L | +12.1wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8a80…11c5backed Indiana Fever | 76c | 50$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12 | 91 | 46.2%42 W · 49 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -12%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e62…79f1backed Las Vegas Aces | 45c | 40.42$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.19 | 55 | 36.4%20 W · 35 L | -6.4wins | -0.12per pick | 48cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe326…f075backed Las Vegas Aces | 39c | 38.46$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.20per pick | 47cpaid | +31.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Indiana Fever | 61c | 30.76$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.91 | 1,611 | 50.2%809 W · 802 L | +37.9wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x032e…2a9ebacked Indiana Fever | 63c | 27.71$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.25 | 320 | 49.4%158 W · 162 L | -4.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x67af…61eebacked Indiana Fever | 72c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.6 | 347 | 53.9%187 W · 160 L | +20.0wins | +0.06per pick | 48cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in WNBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Las Vegas Aces (-6.5)this page
- A'ja Wilson: Assists O/U 2.5No won
- A'ja Wilson: Rebounds O/U 9.5No won
- Indiana Fever vs. Las Vegas AcesIndiana Fever won
- Indiana Fever vs. Las Vegas Aces: O/U 180.5Under won
- Indiana Fever vs. Las Vegas Aces: O/U 181.5Under won
- Indiana Fever vs. Las Vegas Aces: O/U 182.5Under won
- Indiana Fever vs. Las Vegas Aces: O/U 183.5Under won
- Indiana Fever vs. Las Vegas Aces: O/U 184.5Under won
- Spread: Las Vegas Aces (-3.5)Indiana Fever won
- Spread: Las Vegas Aces (-5.5)Indiana Fever won
- Spread: Las Vegas Aces (-7.5)Indiana Fever won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.