WNBA · resolved market
Spread: Las Vegas Aces (-3.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1fb57280ff16e027a6dfa0879667b95c5706efb04306ebb0dbcea852a5fe51f8
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Indiana Feverof Las Vegas Aces, Indiana Fever
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- WNBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $93,261
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $92,431
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $93,261 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 67 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in WNBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in WNBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf070…ac55backed Las Vegas Aces | 48c | 39,566$18,927 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18,927.01 | 107 | 49.5%53 W · 54 L | -2.2wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xafe4…f3f7backed Indiana Fever | 53c | 29,289$15,429 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13,860.42 | 274 | 49.6%136 W · 138 L | +9.3wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9c3c…e8c9backed Indiana Fever | 53c | 9,434$5,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,433.96 | 143 | 53.8%77 W · 66 L | +7.4wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe0db…f44ebacked Las Vegas Aces | 47c | 6,383$3,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,000.01 | 36 | 47.2%17 W · 19 L | -1.4wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Indiana Fever | 51c | 5,571$2,868 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,703.16 | 1,765 | 51.7%912 W · 853 L | +53.4wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f0…912cbacked Las Vegas Aces | 47c | 5,120$2,406 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,406.4 | 922 | 48.8%450 W · 472 L | +9.3wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9fad…5a9fbacked Indiana Fever | 53c | 5,000$2,650 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,349.99 | 61 | 54.1%33 W · 28 L | +3.4wins | +0.06per pick | 48cpaid | +9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6027…4320backed Indiana Fever | 53c | 4,922$2,598 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,323.7 | 296 | 54.4%161 W · 135 L | +11.5wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Indiana Fever | 53c | 3,500$1,855 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,645 | 893 | 49.4%441 W · 452 L | +5.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0c3a…a56bbacked Indiana Fever | 55c | 3,000$1,650 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,350 | 30 | 53.3%16 W · 14 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb8c8…d8a4backed Indiana Fever | 54c | 2,500$1,350 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,149.99 | 49 | 63.3%31 W · 18 L | +6.4wins | +0.13per pick | 50cpaid | +25.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x0eb7…1f17backed Las Vegas Aces | 49c | 2,042$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 230 | 49.6%114 W · 116 L | -13.8wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1316…48a4backed Indiana Fever | 53c | 2,000$1,060 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$940 | 137 | 46%63 W · 74 L | -6.6wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -11%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbd60…396cbacked Las Vegas Aces | 48c | 1,940$931 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$931.21 | 76 | 38.2%29 W · 47 L | -7.7wins | -0.10per pick | 48cpaid | -22%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Las Vegas Aces | 46c | 1,869$857 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$856.64 | 837 | 48.1%403 W · 434 L | +2.5wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa4e8…6300backed Las Vegas Aces | 52c | 1,470$765 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$764.57 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.52per pick | 52cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc638…e298backed Las Vegas Aces | 47c | 1,383$650 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$650 | 42 | 45.2%19 W · 23 L | -2.4wins | -0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb4e6…4a4dbacked Las Vegas Aces | 47c | 1,339$629 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$629.33 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 68cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1a2f…647abacked Las Vegas Aces | 6c | 980$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.8 | 108 | 38.9%42 W · 66 L | +6.8wins | +0.06per pick | 33cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa62a…f05bbacked Indiana Fever | 55c | 909.09$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$409.09 | 30 | 73.3%22 W · 8 L | +2.4wins | +0.08per pick | 65cpaid | +8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6b68…08bbbacked Las Vegas Aces | 46c | 617$284 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$283.82 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.46per pick | 46cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x815f…1eefbacked Indiana Fever | 53c | 602.01$319 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$282.94 | 143 | 46.2%66 W · 77 L | -7.3wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x36b3…e421backed Las Vegas Aces | 47c | 501.11$236 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$235.52 | 344 | 48%165 W · 179 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd619…c461backed Las Vegas Aces | 45c | 444.44$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 194 | 46.4%90 W · 104 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Las Vegas Aces | 47c | 415$195 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$195.05 | 127 | 51.2%65 W · 62 L | +2.5wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x04c7…c7a7backed Las Vegas Aces | 46c | 400$184 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$184 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.08per pick | 46cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf95e…1816backed Las Vegas Aces | 50c | 340$170 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$170 | 29 | 58.6%17 W · 12 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3105…2e7ebacked Indiana Fever | 52c | 310.81$162 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$149.19 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | -1.0wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -12%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9703…69c2backed Las Vegas Aces | 46c | 304.66$139 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$138.68 | 405 | 50.9%206 W · 199 L | +6.9wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6553…7a71backed Las Vegas Aces | 46c | 292.67$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$134.63 | 327 | 43.7%143 W · 184 L | -23.7wins | -0.07per pick | 51cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3f85…e91abacked Las Vegas Aces | 47c | 268.97$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125.96 | 66 | 40.9%27 W · 39 L | -4.3wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xca85…7453backed Las Vegas Aces | 44c | 251.5$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.9 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +0.9wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +28.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0009…5497backed Las Vegas Aces | 40c | 248.05$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 104 | 53.8%56 W · 48 L | +4.2wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x186a…559dbacked Las Vegas Aces | 46c | 217.39$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 155 | 53.5%83 W · 72 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x71bc…7fe4backed Las Vegas Aces | 49c | 204.08$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 149 | 48.3%72 W · 77 L | -3.7wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb4d2…ce99backed Indiana Fever | 60c | 183.05$109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.85 | 310 | 43.2%134 W · 176 L | +6.6wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1ba2…d212backed Las Vegas Aces | 46c | 160.32$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.75 | 150 | 48%72 W · 78 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf809…b391backed Indiana Fever | 52c | 160$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.8 | 20 | 35%7 W · 13 L | -3.0wins | -0.15per pick | 50cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed Las Vegas Aces | 9c | 156.55$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.61 | 347 | 26.5%92 W · 255 L | -20.7wins | -0.06per pick | 32cpaid | -39.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xef54…c997backed Indiana Fever | 51c | 140$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.2 | 87 | 46%40 W · 47 L | -4.6wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8ce7…3150backed Indiana Fever | 53c | 128$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.16 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Las Vegas Aces | 29c | 119.77$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.23 | 1,611 | 50.2%809 W · 802 L | +37.9wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1dd2…9e07backed Las Vegas Aces | 46c | 108.7$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 329 | 48.6%160 W · 169 L | +3.6wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc4fe…601fbacked Indiana Fever | 64c | 105.24$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.53 | 411 | 47%193 W · 218 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5fb3…88c1backed Indiana Fever | 54c | 100.99$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.46 | 173 | 50.3%87 W · 86 L | -8.7wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -11%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2b35…0bfebacked Las Vegas Aces | 46c | 100$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46 | 399 | 47.1%188 W · 211 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8537…b98bbacked Indiana Fever | 55c | 100$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45 | 53 | 52.8%28 W · 25 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7a5d…54dbbacked Indiana Fever | 56c | 96.07$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.27 | 387 | 44.7%173 W · 214 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x076d…8d4cbacked Las Vegas Aces | 47c | 75.09$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.29 | 386 | 45.9%177 W · 209 L | -15.6wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5210…bd53backed Las Vegas Aces | 46c | 75$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.5 | 615 | 47%289 W · 326 L | -19.0wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x224a…a3d5backed Indiana Fever | 53c | 68.91$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.49 | 785 | 48.8%383 W · 402 L | +6.9wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd6b…e0f3backed Indiana Fever | 54c | 57.87$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.62 | 43 | 69.8%30 W · 13 L | +7.8wins | +0.18per pick | 52cpaid | +34.9%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x9aca…61fdbacked Las Vegas Aces | 47c | 50.15$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.57 | 141 | 48.9%69 W · 72 L | -6.0wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xddb6…b9b3backed Las Vegas Aces | 46c | 50$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 364 | 54.1%197 W · 167 L | +15.8wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | 0%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe50b…c2a8backed Las Vegas Aces | 48c | 50$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | -3.2wins | -0.22per pick | 55cpaid | -42.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x775d…6bebbacked Las Vegas Aces | 46c | 50$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 306 | 49%150 W · 156 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x67af…61eebacked Las Vegas Aces | 46c | 50$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 347 | 53.9%187 W · 160 L | +20.0wins | +0.06per pick | 48cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7497…18cebacked Las Vegas Aces | 48c | 41.67$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 70 | 40%28 W · 42 L | -6.1wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0576…6232backed Las Vegas Aces | 46c | 36.38$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.73 | 426 | 49.3%210 W · 216 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x860d…3c72backed Las Vegas Aces | 47c | 33.45$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.72 | 46 | 67.4%31 W · 15 L | +3.7wins | +0.08per pick | 59cpaid | +17.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3637…21a4backed Las Vegas Aces | 49c | 32$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.68 | 43 | 55.8%24 W · 19 L | +3.0wins | +0.07per pick | 49cpaid | +14.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe00b…256fbacked Las Vegas Aces | 49c | 30.82$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 59 | 49.2%29 W · 30 L | -1.6wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1aa2…30ccbacked Indiana Fever | 52c | 30.49$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.63 | 130 | 48.5%63 W · 67 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa578…6702backed Las Vegas Aces | 47c | 30$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.1 | 236 | 44.9%106 W · 130 L | -9.3wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2892…e9d7backed Indiana Fever | 54c | 28.12$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.07 | 260 | 54.6%142 W · 118 L | +9.0wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x56cc…d589backed Indiana Fever | 54c | 20.95$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.72 | 144 | 50%72 W · 72 L | -3.8wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x65ec…a2f9backed Indiana Fever | 63c | 19.05$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.05 | 20 | 60%12 W · 8 L | +1.0wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in WNBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Las Vegas Aces (-3.5)this page
- A'ja Wilson: Assists O/U 2.5No won
- A'ja Wilson: Rebounds O/U 9.5No won
- Indiana Fever vs. Las Vegas AcesIndiana Fever won
- Indiana Fever vs. Las Vegas Aces: O/U 180.5Under won
- Indiana Fever vs. Las Vegas Aces: O/U 181.5Under won
- Indiana Fever vs. Las Vegas Aces: O/U 182.5Under won
- Indiana Fever vs. Las Vegas Aces: O/U 183.5Under won
- Indiana Fever vs. Las Vegas Aces: O/U 184.5Under won
- Spread: Las Vegas Aces (-5.5)Indiana Fever won
- Spread: Las Vegas Aces (-6.5)Indiana Fever won
- Spread: Las Vegas Aces (-7.5)Indiana Fever won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.