Crypto Milestones · resolved market
Will Solana dip to $180 October 13-19?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x308eb93080977050eb8df7b637d0cab029ce288b959da7fa473473519708363b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Crypto Milestonesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $72,419
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $73,023
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $72,419 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 26 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Crypto Milestones is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x55be…dca3backed Yes | 42c | 5,610$2,375 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,234.68 | 291 | 26.5%77 W · 214 L | -7.5wins | -0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -34.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc5ce…f74dbacked Yes | 49c | 3,824$1,874 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,950.29 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -32%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfb1c…963ebacked No | 26c | 3,403$901 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$900.76 | 550 | 32.5%179 W · 371 L | +3.0wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -27.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x031b…babcbacked Yes | 75c | 3,372$2,528 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$843.67 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 23cpaid | -76.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9066…c20abacked No | 47c | 2,362$1,117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,116.9 | 155 | 61.9%96 W · 59 L | +19.8wins | +0.13per pick | 49cpaid | +13.7%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xf98b…bfc5backed No | 30c | 1,500$443 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$442.5 | 246 | 54.9%135 W · 111 L | +16.5wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4c03…604ebacked Yes | 60c | 1,061$640 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$421.5 | 172 | 29.7%51 W · 121 L | -13.0wins | -0.08per pick | 37cpaid | -47.9%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf1dc…92e7backed Yes | 22c | 694.74$149 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$545.3 | 325 | 24.3%79 W · 246 L | -8.0wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -36.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd708…b9d2backed Yes | 72c | 600$432 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$168 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | -1.4wins | -0.08per pick | 50cpaid | -31.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe55a…e55ebacked No | 27c | 350.4$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.93 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +1.5wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7d98…4935backed Yes | 40c | 300$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$180 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.08per pick | 59cpaid | +29.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3ab9…710dbacked No | 60c | 230.5$138 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$138.3 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.2wins | -0.62per pick | 62cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3d25…5f2ebacked No | 60c | 219.22$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$131.53 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.22per pick | 72cpaid | -33.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x35a9…3fdabacked No | 60c | 213.14$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$127.88 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.26per pick | 51cpaid | -65.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 21c | 208$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$165.24 | 1,844 | 4.4%81 W · 1,763 L | -13.1wins | -0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -42.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbabd…3335backed No | 11c | 180$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.5 | 212 | 36.8%78 W · 134 L | +17.5wins | +0.08per pick | 29cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4ee2…46e1backed No | 66c | 167.4$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.24 | 406 | 43.3%176 W · 230 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed No | 26c | 163.54$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.41 | 648 | 12%78 W · 570 L | -61.6wins | -0.10per pick | 22cpaid | -53.2%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b6…9646backed Yes | 40c | 143.64$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.18 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4a1f…1a9fbacked Yes | 39c | 141.1$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.67 | 52 | 7.7%4 W · 48 L | -2.9wins | -0.05per pick | 13cpaid | -74%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0215…6080backed Yes | 40c | 125$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.38per pick | 62cpaid | +75%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbd57…32b2backed Yes | 40c | 94.96$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.96 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.60per pick | 40cpaid | +149.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x19c5…511dbacked Yes | 52c | 57.69$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.69 | 58 | 19%11 W · 47 L | +2.9wins | +0.05per pick | 14cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa314…5ba7backed No | 71c | 42$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.82 | 75 | 49.3%37 W · 38 L | -5.5wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x60fe…edd6backed Yes | 25c | 40$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | -0.8wins | -0.07per pick | 16cpaid | -63.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x656c…d10bbacked Yes | 34c | 30$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.8 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.21per pick | 46cpaid | +53.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Solana dip to $180 October 13-19?this page
- Will Solana dip to $150 October 13-19?No won
- Will Solana dip to $160 October 13-19?No won
- Will Solana dip to $170 October 13-19?No won
- Will Solana reach $200 October 13-19?Yes won
- Will Solana reach $210 October 13-19?Yes won
- Will Solana reach $220 October 13-19?No won
- Will Solana reach $230 October 13-19?No won
- Will Solana reach $240 October 13-19?No won
- Will Solana reach $250 October 13-19?No won
- Will Solana reach $260 October 13-19?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.