CS2 · resolved market
Counter-Strike: Misa Esports vs ILLYRIANS - Map 2 Winner
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x30a314f2e364b5ebd77a8cf2e3f5003b81e544c986b6fe6a23e8201f172afef0
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- ILLYRIANSof Misa Esports, ILLYRIANS
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- CS2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $12,842
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $18,902
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $12,842 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 16 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in CS2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet's whole record in CS2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc0f1…8680backed ILLYRIANS | 50c | 5,025$2,501 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,524.62 | 2,561 | 43.2%1,107 W · 1,454 L | +42.8wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3db4…d69bbacked Misa Esports | 50c | 3,500$1,750 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,750 | 768 | 56.9%437 W · 331 L | +49.5wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7460…de6ebacked Misa Esports | 50c | 2,000$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 456 | 51.1%233 W · 223 L | +6.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda29…f4b8backed ILLYRIANS | 50c | 558.86$277 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$281.94 | 39 | 41%16 W · 23 L | -4.8wins | -0.12per pick | 53cpaid | -28.1%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9563…243bbacked ILLYRIANS | 51c | 335.64$172 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$163.64 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | +2.0wins | +0.13per pick | 47cpaid | +28.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xeb03…ac95backed ILLYRIANS | 60c | 290.15$175 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$115.15 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb4d2…ce99backed Misa Esports | 39c | 254.43$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.22 | 2,732 | 30.3%829 W · 1,903 L | -120.6wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -30.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1764…7acbbacked Misa Esports | 51c | 206.17$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.15 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -1.8wins | -0.15per pick | 40cpaid | -54.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4b27…0635backed Misa Esports | 58c | 200$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116 | 357 | 51%182 W · 175 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc4fe…601fbacked Misa Esports | 44c | 66.45$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.25 | 3,706 | 29.5%1,093 W · 2,613 L | -297.7wins | -0.08per pick | 38cpaid | -43.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xfe9b…cbe5backed ILLYRIANS | 60c | 49.6$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.6 | 459 | 43.6%200 W · 259 L | +10.1wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa951…8a2fbacked Misa Esports | 51c | 46$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.46 | 1,279 | 54.3%694 W · 585 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb91c…ed66backed Misa Esports | 39c | 38.99$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.34 | 718 | 42.3%304 W · 414 L | -16.9wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2e3c…08babacked ILLYRIANS | 52c | 35.99$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.29 | 4,879 | 43.4%2,116 W · 2,763 L | -93.7wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9d37…ba9ebacked ILLYRIANS | 77c | 32.59$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.59 | 27 | 48.1%13 W · 14 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x629d…756cbacked ILLYRIANS | 46c | 24$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.94 | 2,502 | 43%1,077 W · 1,425 L | -73.7wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in CS2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 2 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Counter-Strike: Misa Esports vs ILLYRIANS - Map 2 Winnerthis page
- Counter-Strike: Misa Esports vs ILLYRIANS (BO3) - CCT Europe Closed Qualifier: Series #8 Group BMisa Esports won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80.
- The position was at least $10.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.