Europa Conference League · resolved market
Ilves Tampere vs. HNK Rijeka: Team to Advance
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x30ac961b9844fb319918e4b6718d0b987849f0639b195f17f067a6f7d30df4e1
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- HNK Rijekaof Ilves Tampere, HNK Rijeka
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Europa Conference Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $4,317
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $4,469
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $4,317 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 10 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Europa Conference League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Europa Conference League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xdc41…dd7ebacked Ilves Tampere | 17c | 2,971$498 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$497.94 | 270 | 39.3%106 W · 164 L | -7.4wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b25…7a69backed Ilves Tampere | 14c | 178.75$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.27 | 15 | 13.3%2 W · 13 L | -2.3wins | -0.15per pick | 28cpaid | -71.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x076d…8d4cbacked Ilves Tampere | 14c | 162.86$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.56 | 973 | 46%448 W · 525 L | -4.7wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1ed1…fd2abacked Ilves Tampere | 17c | 120$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.4 | 22 | 45.5%10 W · 12 L | +1.4wins | +0.06per pick | 39cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked HNK Rijeka | 80c | 100$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.5 | 638 | 57.2%365 W · 273 L | +35.3wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4a55…a82abacked Ilves Tampere | 17c | 88.24$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 59 | 59.3%35 W · 24 L | +1.8wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8728…0882backed Ilves Tampere | 16c | 81.31$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.01 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | +1.5wins | +0.10per pick | 37cpaid | +17%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdc3b…d591backed Ilves Tampere | 26c | 51.92$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 23 | 47.8%11 W · 12 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Ilves Tampere | 34c | 45.8$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.57 | 783 | 44.8%351 W · 432 L | +13.5wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc2ca…4419backed HNK Rijeka | 66c | 45.8$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.57 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.36per pick | 65cpaid | +55.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Europa Conference League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 17 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Ilves Tampere vs. HNK Rijeka: Team to Advancethis page
- Ilves Tampere vs. HNK Rijeka: 1st Half O/U 0.5Under won
- Ilves Tampere vs. HNK Rijeka: 1st Half O/U 1.5Under won
- Ilves Tampere vs. HNK Rijeka: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- Ilves Tampere vs. HNK Rijeka: Both Teams to Score in First HalfNo won
- Ilves Tampere vs. HNK Rijeka: HNK Rijeka O/U 1.5Under won
- Ilves Tampere vs. HNK Rijeka: HNK Rijeka O/U 2.5Under won
- Ilves Tampere vs. HNK Rijeka: Ilves Tampere O/U 1.5Under won
- Ilves Tampere vs. HNK Rijeka: Ilves Tampere O/U 2.5Under won
- Ilves Tampere vs. HNK Rijeka: O/U 0.5Over won
- Ilves Tampere vs. HNK Rijeka: O/U 1.5Over won
- Ilves Tampere vs. HNK Rijeka: O/U 2.5Under won
- Ilves Tampere vs. HNK Rijeka: O/U 3.5Under won
- Ilves Tampere vs. HNK Rijeka: O/U 4.5Under won
- Ilves Tampere vs. HNK Rijeka: O/U 5.5Under won
- Spread: HNK Rijeka (-1.5)Ilves Tampere won
- Spread: Ilves Tampere (-2.5)HNK Rijeka won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.