Europa Conference League · resolved market
Spread: HNK Rijeka (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x03c81f69add757514c808f2375573dd875224f2f9208bec542d9c6327a811ed8
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Ilves Tampereof HNK Rijeka, Ilves Tampere
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Europa Conference Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $1,982
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $2,086
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,982 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 19 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Europa Conference League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Europa Conference League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x0346…52a5backed HNK Rijeka | 17c | 624.78$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.43 | 2,478 | 33.9%840 W · 1,638 L | -95.6wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -25.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1b0f…b7aebacked HNK Rijeka | 28c | 541.04$149 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$149.32 | 88 | 40.9%36 W · 52 L | +8.0wins | +0.09per pick | 32cpaid | +34.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Ilves Tampere | 72c | 467$337 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$129.74 | 814 | 40.5%330 W · 484 L | -21.9wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2a69…d2f7backed Ilves Tampere | 75c | 241$181 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.86 | 2,344 | 41.6%976 W · 1,368 L | +25.6wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3ca9…424abacked Ilves Tampere | 72c | 110.22$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.57 | 390 | 52.6%205 W · 185 L | -5.7wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Ilves Tampere | 72c | 87.26$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.32 | 1,573 | 55.7%876 W · 697 L | +25.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x091a…8287backed Ilves Tampere | 72c | 83.21$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.3 | 31 | 64.5%20 W · 11 L | +3.3wins | +0.11per pick | 54cpaid | +15.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed HNK Rijeka | 28c | 83.21$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.3 | 1,046 | 50.2%525 W · 521 L | +28.4wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x066f…b576backed HNK Rijeka | 31c | 69.81$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.52 | 256 | 41%105 W · 151 L | -12.6wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcc8e…944ebacked Ilves Tampere | 74c | 67.57$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.57 | 81 | 69.1%56 W · 25 L | -2.1wins | -0.03per pick | 72cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x52d9…fb1abacked Ilves Tampere | 72c | 57.64$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.14 | 1,037 | 46.1%478 W · 559 L | -2.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x56ac…d77ebacked Ilves Tampere | 71c | 56$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.24 | 218 | 40.4%88 W · 130 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5929…4684backed Ilves Tampere | 73c | 55.07$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.87 | 503 | 54.7%275 W · 228 L | +19.8wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa87b…968bbacked HNK Rijeka | 22c | 49.46$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 71 | 28.2%20 W · 51 L | -3.6wins | -0.05per pick | 33cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Ilves Tampere | 72c | 48.61$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.44 | 153 | 52.9%81 W · 72 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | 0%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2fb9…c170backed Ilves Tampere | 80c | 18.77$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.75 | 118 | 60.2%71 W · 47 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3637…21a4backed Ilves Tampere | 67c | 18$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.94 | 15 | 73.3%11 W · 4 L | +1.9wins | +0.13per pick | 60cpaid | +26.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Ilves Tampere | 78c | 16.93$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.77 | 2,175 | 37.6%817 W · 1,358 L | +4.6wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xadfb…c2efbacked Ilves Tampere | 70c | 14.67$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.4 | 969 | 47.5%460 W · 509 L | +13.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Europa Conference League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 17 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: HNK Rijeka (-1.5)this page
- Ilves Tampere vs. HNK Rijeka: 1st Half O/U 0.5Under won
- Ilves Tampere vs. HNK Rijeka: 1st Half O/U 1.5Under won
- Ilves Tampere vs. HNK Rijeka: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- Ilves Tampere vs. HNK Rijeka: Both Teams to Score in First HalfNo won
- Ilves Tampere vs. HNK Rijeka: HNK Rijeka O/U 1.5Under won
- Ilves Tampere vs. HNK Rijeka: HNK Rijeka O/U 2.5Under won
- Ilves Tampere vs. HNK Rijeka: Ilves Tampere O/U 1.5Under won
- Ilves Tampere vs. HNK Rijeka: Ilves Tampere O/U 2.5Under won
- Ilves Tampere vs. HNK Rijeka: O/U 0.5Over won
- Ilves Tampere vs. HNK Rijeka: O/U 1.5Over won
- Ilves Tampere vs. HNK Rijeka: O/U 2.5Under won
- Ilves Tampere vs. HNK Rijeka: O/U 3.5Under won
- Ilves Tampere vs. HNK Rijeka: O/U 4.5Under won
- Ilves Tampere vs. HNK Rijeka: O/U 5.5Under won
- Ilves Tampere vs. HNK Rijeka: Team to AdvanceHNK Rijeka won
- Spread: Ilves Tampere (-2.5)HNK Rijeka won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.