Europa Conference League · resolved market
Ilves Tampere vs. HNK Rijeka: O/U 2.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd50d8afbce248973d8b6638fae8e1d387e6e39e0927b809f5f667932971533f8
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Europa Conference Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $34,701
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $34,635
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $34,701 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 59 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Europa Conference League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Europa Conference League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf438…9559backed Over | 45c | 7,651$3,443 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,443.1 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc41…dd7ebacked Under | 55c | 6,077$3,342 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,734.65 | 270 | 39.3%106 W · 164 L | -7.4wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2a69…d2f7backed Under | 60c | 5,295$3,168 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,126.98 | 2,333 | 41.7%972 W · 1,361 L | +25.5wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed Over | 18c | 4,306$770 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$769.76 | 795 | 32.2%256 W · 539 L | -16.9wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -27.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaf18…3ca8backed Over | 46c | 3,237$1,500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,500 | 34 | 32.4%11 W · 23 L | -2.1wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Over | 24c | 2,758$664 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$663.83 | 1,604 | 38.9%624 W · 980 L | -17.7wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x10a6…4d8bbacked Under | 72c | 1,205$868 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$337.39 | 41 | 51.2%21 W · 20 L | +1.1wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Over | 19c | 962.75$183 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$182.88 | 814 | 40.5%330 W · 484 L | -21.9wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 64c | 851.22$545 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$306.58 | 3,726 | 47%1,750 W · 1,976 L | +20.0wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Over | 46c | 809.25$371 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$370.86 | 1,039 | 50%520 W · 519 L | +26.5wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad0b…a514backed Under | 55c | 499.99$275 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$225 | 53 | 58.5%31 W · 22 L | +4.1wins | +0.08per pick | 51cpaid | +17.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd91a…211cbacked Over | 28c | 471.64$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$132.06 | 45 | 28.9%13 W · 32 L | -2.0wins | -0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb4d2…ce99backed Over | 23c | 403.12$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.49 | 374 | 46.8%175 W · 199 L | +27.1wins | +0.07per pick | 40cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x52d9…fb1abacked Over | 29c | 361.55$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.62 | 1,033 | 46.1%476 W · 557 L | -3.1wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdfc2…9343backed Over | 47c | 341.03$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160.28 | 27 | 55.6%15 W · 12 L | +3.0wins | +0.11per pick | 44cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x076d…8d4cbacked Under | 60c | 301.61$182 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120.02 | 973 | 46%448 W · 525 L | -4.7wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1ba2…d212backed Under | 69c | 289.44$201 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.78 | 324 | 36.4%118 W · 206 L | -20.4wins | -0.06per pick | 43cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3171…b991backed Over | 47c | 212.77$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 36 | 66.7%24 W · 12 L | -1.7wins | -0.05per pick | 71cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd21c…2afcbacked Under | 56c | 195.79$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.15 | 38 | 44.7%17 W · 21 L | -1.3wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc4fe…601fbacked Over | 20c | 187.69$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.43 | 370 | 46.5%172 W · 198 L | +10.8wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | 0%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcf73…0215backed Over | 45c | 160.66$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.3 | 661 | 50.5%334 W · 327 L | +22.3wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Under | 53c | 157.24$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.9 | 153 | 52.9%81 W · 72 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | 0%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x81a7…7042backed Over | 25c | 123.86$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.74 | 99 | 23.2%23 W · 76 L | -9.1wins | -0.09per pick | 32cpaid | -50.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1a62…4ab9backed Over | 29c | 121.21$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 66 | 28.8%19 W · 47 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3ca9…424abacked Over | 22c | 119.51$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.23 | 389 | 52.7%205 W · 184 L | -5.2wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -10%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x11f5…ea34backed Over | 43c | 116.28$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 19 | 31.6%6 W · 13 L | -2.3wins | -0.12per pick | 44cpaid | -41.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x24ce…da46backed Under | 63c | 107.94$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.01 | 68 | 54.4%37 W · 31 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x308b…b223backed Over | 43c | 104.65$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3546…1a58backed Over | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 31 | 19.4%6 W · 25 L | -3.0wins | -0.10per pick | 29cpaid | -33.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xddb6…b9b3backed Over | 29c | 100$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.25 | 334 | 46.7%156 W · 178 L | -14.5wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0346…52a5backed Over | 21c | 81.35$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.81 | 2,473 | 33.9%839 W · 1,634 L | -95.0wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -25%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb4…8285backed Under | 50c | 71.2$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.55 | 741 | 55.9%414 W · 327 L | +19.3wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3da8…be26backed Under | 53c | 68$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.96 | 27 | 44.4%12 W · 15 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x775d…6bebbacked Over | 30c | 66.3$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.83 | 278 | 46.4%129 W · 149 L | -12.6wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -19%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7d0c…a3b7backed Over | 50c | 65.74$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.87 | 1,316 | 50.8%668 W · 648 L | +33.2wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfb0c…8c72backed Under | 54c | 50.2$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.09 | 655 | 49.8%326 W · 329 L | +13.3wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Over | 45c | 46$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.7 | 1,573 | 55.7%876 W · 697 L | +25.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8987…02f3backed Under | 52c | 45.44$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.81 | 94 | 51.1%48 W · 46 L | +3.8wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8d0c…c90abacked Under | 54c | 39.99$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.26 | 476 | 49.4%235 W · 241 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4f…9804backed Under | 54c | 35.33$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.25 | 441 | 56%247 W · 194 L | +22.7wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfcc7…4d38backed Over | 44c | 34$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.96 | 134 | 50%67 W · 67 L | +4.6wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7113…dba4backed Over | 46c | 32.61$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 266 | 47.4%126 W · 140 L | +2.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4954…2ba3backed Under | 55c | 30.2$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.59 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd0fb…8092backed Over | 46c | 30$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.8 | 24 | 33.3%8 W · 16 L | -3.6wins | -0.15per pick | 48cpaid | -32.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1790…30f7backed Under | 52c | 28$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.44 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +1.6wins | +0.20per pick | 55cpaid | +42.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x853e…f16abacked Under | 56c | 26.79$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.79 | 22 | 59.1%13 W · 9 L | +2.2wins | +0.10per pick | 49cpaid | +15.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x013f…ca85backed Under | 59c | 25.04$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.33 | 36 | 66.7%24 W · 12 L | +3.9wins | +0.11per pick | 56cpaid | +18.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0dff…bb1ebacked Over | 49c | 23.14$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.34 | 23 | 52.2%12 W · 11 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2d6a…8addbacked Under | 54c | 21.74$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 694 | 48.8%339 W · 355 L | +18.5wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe026…f409backed Under | 62c | 20.78$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.87 | 34 | 32.4%11 W · 23 L | -5.5wins | -0.16per pick | 49cpaid | -43%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x066f…b576backed Under | 53c | 20.77$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.76 | 254 | 40.6%103 W · 151 L | -13.5wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9028…8608backed Under | 63c | 20.62$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.55 | 580 | 61.9%359 W · 221 L | +22.5wins | +0.04per pick | 58cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5d63…9075backed Under | 64c | 20.61$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.51 | 852 | 60.9%519 W · 333 L | +29.5wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x14e7…a32cbacked Under | 55c | 20.01$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.96 | 38 | 60.5%23 W · 15 L | +3.6wins | +0.10per pick | 51cpaid | +18.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x88c5…4815backed Under | 55c | 19.55$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.8 | 27 | 44.4%12 W · 15 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf504…0111backed Under | 64c | 18.79$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.83 | 36 | 72.2%26 W · 10 L | +3.1wins | +0.09per pick | 64cpaid | +15%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2fb9…c170backed Under | 80c | 18.77$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.75 | 118 | 60.2%71 W · 47 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Under | 61c | 17.22$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.72 | 568 | 49.6%282 W · 286 L | +5.5wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2470…7ae6backed Under | 72c | 16.93$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.74 | 31 | 58.1%18 W · 13 L | -3.7wins | -0.12per pick | 70cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Europa Conference League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 17 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Ilves Tampere vs. HNK Rijeka: O/U 2.5this page
- Ilves Tampere vs. HNK Rijeka: 1st Half O/U 0.5Under won
- Ilves Tampere vs. HNK Rijeka: 1st Half O/U 1.5Under won
- Ilves Tampere vs. HNK Rijeka: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- Ilves Tampere vs. HNK Rijeka: Both Teams to Score in First HalfNo won
- Ilves Tampere vs. HNK Rijeka: HNK Rijeka O/U 1.5Under won
- Ilves Tampere vs. HNK Rijeka: HNK Rijeka O/U 2.5Under won
- Ilves Tampere vs. HNK Rijeka: Ilves Tampere O/U 1.5Under won
- Ilves Tampere vs. HNK Rijeka: Ilves Tampere O/U 2.5Under won
- Ilves Tampere vs. HNK Rijeka: O/U 0.5Over won
- Ilves Tampere vs. HNK Rijeka: O/U 1.5Over won
- Ilves Tampere vs. HNK Rijeka: O/U 3.5Under won
- Ilves Tampere vs. HNK Rijeka: O/U 4.5Under won
- Ilves Tampere vs. HNK Rijeka: O/U 5.5Under won
- Ilves Tampere vs. HNK Rijeka: Team to AdvanceHNK Rijeka won
- Spread: HNK Rijeka (-1.5)Ilves Tampere won
- Spread: Ilves Tampere (-2.5)HNK Rijeka won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.