CS2 · resolved market
Map Handicap: FAL (-1.5) vs NRG (+1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x30b3f983fba33087aabb3a1b0368b68307e89d41e9c91ba9ad578d12e41a74ae
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- NRGof Team Falcons, NRG
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- CS2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $29,242
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $38,377
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $29,242 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 40 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in CS2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in CS2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x098b…1fa5backed Team Falcons | 65c | 8,000$5,200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,199.99 | 124 | 41.1%51 W · 73 L | -4.0wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3f12…3e35backed NRG | 35c | 6,423$2,248 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,174.69 | 316 | 42.1%133 W · 183 L | -7.1wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9e04…28a9backed NRG | 12c | 1,517$182 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,335 | 366 | 45.4%166 W · 200 L | +5.3wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x79c9…b2f1backed NRG | 34c | 1,447$495 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$951.81 | 116 | 38.8%45 W · 71 L | +4.8wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9160…de3dbacked NRG | 36c | 1,239$450 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$789.44 | 180 | 40.6%73 W · 107 L | -11.1wins | -0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -20%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4ec4…6529backed Team Falcons | 68c | 1,033$700 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$700 | 89 | 44.9%40 W · 49 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd589…27c2backed NRG | 32c | 999.99$320 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$680 | 87 | 51.7%45 W · 42 L | +3.8wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb615…5baebacked Team Falcons | 69c | 726.99$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 52 | 61.5%32 W · 20 L | +3.1wins | +0.06per pick | 56cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x213f…1da2backed NRG | 35c | 714.29$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$464.29 | 102 | 44.1%45 W · 57 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfd14…2267backed NRG | 32c | 555.55$178 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$377.77 | 5,830 | 37.8%2,203 W · 3,627 L | +79.0wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcbf4…e3a6backed Team Falcons | 64c | 534.2$342 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$341.89 | 103 | 35.9%37 W · 66 L | -5.2wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3b87…6a47backed Team Falcons | 68c | 500$338 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$337.54 | 130 | 59.2%77 W · 53 L | +4.1wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbde6…e8b5backed Team Falcons | 66c | 499.99$330 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$330 | 88 | 46.6%41 W · 47 L | -4.8wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3b63…4acdbacked Team Falcons | 63c | 479.14$302 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$301.86 | 139 | 52.5%73 W · 66 L | +9.5wins | +0.07per pick | 46cpaid | +17.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4d74…04f5backed NRG | 36c | 417.47$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$267.18 | 20 | 25%5 W · 15 L | -2.6wins | -0.13per pick | 38cpaid | -40.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xde19…3a14backed Team Falcons | 68c | 342.94$234 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$234 | 125 | 52.8%66 W · 59 L | -5.2wins | -0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x94a1…2075backed Team Falcons | 67c | 330$221 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$221.1 | 452 | 44.5%201 W · 251 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x75f3…0e78backed NRG | 36c | 275.03$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$175.03 | 285 | 41.1%117 W · 168 L | -12.7wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x40ba…7ea5backed Team Falcons | 67c | 200$134 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$134 | 420 | 57.6%242 W · 178 L | +19.3wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x926c…a86bbacked NRG | 35c | 171.43$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$111.43 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.16per pick | 44cpaid | +29.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcb5b…f243backed NRG | 34c | 156$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.35 | 4,038 | 48.1%1,943 W · 2,095 L | -23.9wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x41a3…017dbacked NRG | 36c | 139.44$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.44 | 451 | 62.3%281 W · 170 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x637a…8056backed Team Falcons | 67c | 100$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67 | 26 | 34.6%9 W · 17 L | -4.3wins | -0.16per pick | 51cpaid | -36.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7cbc…b637backed NRG | 32c | 100$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68 | 625 | 38.6%241 W · 384 L | -16.0wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xea4e…5ecbbacked Team Falcons | 65c | 78.46$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51 | 19 | 57.9%11 W · 8 L | +0.8wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe180…889bbacked NRG | 35c | 71.43$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.43 | 75 | 58.7%44 W · 31 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x033e…1bb9backed NRG | 21c | 71.27$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.3 | 200 | 50.5%101 W · 99 L | -2.8wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +37.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4130…a35bbacked NRG | 33c | 69$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.23 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5580…0507backed Team Falcons | 69c | 64.12$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.27 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.15per pick | 65cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa295…98bcbacked NRG | 34c | 58.82$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.82 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | -3.0wins | -0.19per pick | 50cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8b9d…9b0ebacked NRG | 32c | 49.99$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.99 | 232 | 34.9%81 W · 151 L | -3.9wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb4f9…5526backed NRG | 33c | 48$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.16 | 11 | 81.8%9 W · 2 L | +4.4wins | +0.40per pick | 42cpaid | +95.7%equal weight | 64+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xe829…a4aabacked Team Falcons | 67c | 36$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.12 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.28per pick | 61cpaid | -56.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2949…76bcbacked Team Falcons | 67c | 33$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.11 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.09per pick | 58cpaid | +26%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8d88…1e28backed Team Falcons | 64c | 32.82$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.01 | 169 | 35.5%60 W · 109 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcb6b…604ebacked Team Falcons | 65c | 30$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.5 | 821 | 46.3%380 W · 441 L | -8.4wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x78a4…05afbacked Team Falcons | 67c | 27$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.09 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.24per pick | 58cpaid | -40.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9d6f…ec8bbacked Team Falcons | 67c | 23.7$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.88 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa554…e53dbacked Team Falcons | 67c | 21$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.07 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.19per pick | 56cpaid | +54.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4725…619bbacked Team Falcons | 65c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 34 | 64.7%22 W · 12 L | +1.5wins | +0.05per pick | 60cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in CS2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Map Handicap: FAL (-1.5) vs NRG (+1.5)this page
- Counter-Strike: NRG vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Krakow Group BTeam Falcons won
- Counter-Strike: NRG vs Team Falcons - Map 1 WinnerTeam Falcons won
- Counter-Strike: NRG vs Team Falcons - Map 2 WinnerNRG won
- Games Total: O/U 2.5Over won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.