CS2 · resolved market
Counter-Strike: illwill vs MASONIC (BO3)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x30b43b34eec8fc79b450e587dad80ea3a3846bc9f942f870ae966633086a03c4
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- illwillof illwill, MASONIC
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- CS2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $21,233
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $24,263
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $21,233 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 32 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in CS2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in CS2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed MASONIC | 1c | 3,841$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.86 | 1,500 | 9.9%148 W · 1,352 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -55.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked illwill | 75c | 2,923$2,205 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$718.58 | 3,257 | 50.3%1,638 W · 1,619 L | +98.0wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfd14…2267backed MASONIC | 28c | 1,799$506 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$506.11 | 5,830 | 37.8%2,203 W · 3,627 L | +79.0wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x61fa…7f62backed MASONIC | 26c | 1,155$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 335 | 53.4%179 W · 156 L | -8.0wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x34c1…7d67backed MASONIC | 31c | 1,085$333 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$333 | 9 | 88.9%8 W · 1 L | +3.0wins | +0.34per pick | 55cpaid | +55.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xc192…086cbacked MASONIC | 17c | 740.58$129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$129.45 | 275 | 30.9%85 W · 190 L | -18.6wins | -0.07per pick | 38cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4b80…b3b2backed MASONIC | 18c | 499.63$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.25 | 27 | 11.1%3 W · 24 L | -3.1wins | -0.12per pick | 23cpaid | -69.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbec7…5977backed MASONIC | 26c | 420.84$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.42 | 576 | 47.6%274 W · 302 L | -25.7wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -12%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfd3f…44f1backed illwill | 74c | 386.49$286 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.49 | 178 | 47.2%84 W · 94 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked illwill | 69c | 385.27$266 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$119.43 | 2,326 | 55.7%1,296 W · 1,030 L | +44.8wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3d4…6297backed MASONIC | 4c | 309.47$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.47 | 202 | 43.6%88 W · 114 L | -8.1wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -26.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x86b1…c094backed MASONIC | 19c | 246.46$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.76 | 573 | 22.3%128 W · 445 L | -4.0wins | -0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x89f3…dfffbacked MASONIC | 22c | 211.49$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.53 | 49 | 38.8%19 W · 30 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6dc0…699abacked MASONIC | 7c | 200$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 1,181 | 22.5%266 W · 915 L | +3.6wins | 0.00per pick | 22cpaid | -15%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x57d5…0bbdbacked MASONIC | 16c | 183.93$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.39 | 229 | 31.4%72 W · 157 L | -6.3wins | -0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2353…45eabacked MASONIC | 24c | 129.33$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.94 | 27 | 25.9%7 W · 20 L | -2.2wins | -0.08per pick | 34cpaid | -29.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0b4f…6678backed illwill | 78c | 128.21$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.21 | 7 | 85.7%6 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.14per pick | 72cpaid | +24%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c10…829bbacked illwill | 76c | 108.99$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.16 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.07per pick | 68cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0e28…df76backed MASONIC | 16c | 100$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 48 | 29.2%14 W · 34 L | -6.3wins | -0.13per pick | 42cpaid | -36.9%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x43c8…0551backed MASONIC | 13c | 100$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 76 | 27.6%21 W · 55 L | -2.4wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0df1…54ccbacked MASONIC | 13c | 94.87$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.99 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | +0.9wins | +0.10per pick | 24cpaid | +24.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xca0c…9c40backed MASONIC | 16c | 73.48$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.44 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -34.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbd2…e8e8backed illwill | 75c | 70.01$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.25 | 33 | 57.6%19 W · 14 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x36d3…7030backed MASONIC | 24c | 64$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.21 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | -1.3wins | -0.07per pick | 35cpaid | -33.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7d72…8e62backed MASONIC | 32c | 63.13$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 62 | 51.6%32 W · 30 L | +2.2wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f93…bffabacked illwill | 78c | 58.7$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.2 | 789 | 63.8%503 W · 286 L | -2.5wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | -3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x96f4…056cbacked MASONIC | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3ec8…397bbacked illwill | 69c | 40.02$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.32 | 51 | 45.1%23 W · 28 L | -2.8wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4dc8…6abbbacked illwill | 77c | 27.27$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.27 | 15 | 93.3%14 W · 1 L | +3.3wins | +0.22per pick | 71cpaid | +34.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7216…0d67backed illwill | 79c | 21.95$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.63 | 67 | 35.8%24 W · 43 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7aab…685dbacked illwill | 78c | 19.99$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.3 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 69cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0a67…0355backed illwill | 76c | 15.82$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.76 | 13 | 84.6%11 W · 2 L | +2.4wins | +0.18per pick | 66cpaid | +30%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in CS2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Counter-Strike: illwill vs MASONIC (BO3)this page
- Counter-Strike: illwill vs MASONIC - Map 1 Winnerillwill won
- Counter-Strike: illwill vs MASONIC - Map 2 Winnerillwill won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.