NBA · resolved market
Spread: Cavaliers (-4.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x30b4ed4ca5e0c0a1d19d1d6077aadf12a7443b486466e9917fedf4f2445e37f2
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Celticsof Cavaliers, Celtics
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $29,064
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $28,799
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $29,064 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 26 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb083…b3f0backed Celtics | 58c | 12,500$7,250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,250 | 202 | 48%97 W · 105 L | -8.1wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -14%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6a32…0086backed Cavaliers | 42c | 8,409$3,532 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,531.76 | 1,332 | 51.2%682 W · 650 L | +7.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8198…e96ebacked Cavaliers | 44c | 3,909$1,720 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,719.96 | 164 | 46.3%76 W · 88 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc996…bb65backed Cavaliers | 46c | 3,909$1,798 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,798.14 | 471 | 44.2%208 W · 263 L | -10.1wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xde91…f20abacked Cavaliers | 43c | 2,500$1,085 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,084.87 | 157 | 45.2%71 W · 86 L | -3.9wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe895…c3dabacked Cavaliers | 42c | 1,454$604 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$603.85 | 79 | 39.2%31 W · 48 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +23.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5137…1556backed Cavaliers | 40c | 1,364$544 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$544.37 | 2,265 | 43.4%982 W · 1,283 L | -26.7wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Celtics | 59c | 1,186$700 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$486.44 | 2,736 | 46.7%1,277 W · 1,459 L | -67.4wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7d5c…0182backed Celtics | 51c | 1,161$592 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$568.89 | 477 | 51.8%247 W · 230 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Celtics | 68c | 838$569 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$268.73 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Celtics | 53c | 677.38$361 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$316.36 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4d45…9054backed Celtics | 57c | 584.2$333 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$251.21 | 300 | 53.3%160 W · 140 L | +9.2wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1d3a…7b63backed Cavaliers | 49c | 471.41$231 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$230.99 | 762 | 49.5%377 W · 385 L | -8.7wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4df3…788fbacked Cavaliers | 45c | 271.91$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122.36 | 6,213 | 50.6%3,142 W · 3,071 L | +53.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb22…808abacked Celtics | 55c | 250$138 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.5 | 956 | 41.7%399 W · 557 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfa5c…be69backed Celtics | 55c | 190.56$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.75 | 279 | 39.8%111 W · 168 L | +3.4wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f5…1caabacked Celtics | 54c | 166.03$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.85 | 801 | 48.3%387 W · 414 L | -3.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x16b2…a881backed Celtics | 53c | 163.59$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.78 | 2,298 | 51.7%1,188 W · 1,110 L | +65.4wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x71c1…e358backed Cavaliers | 42c | 119.05$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 930 | 36.5%339 W · 591 L | -20.2wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaf38…a59bbacked Celtics | 53c | 100$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47 | 418 | 48.3%202 W · 216 L | -7.0wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x84f7…ade1backed Cavaliers | 49c | 75$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.75 | 1,715 | 44.5%764 W · 951 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb590…15d3backed Celtics | 55c | 45.45$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.45 | 53 | 58.5%31 W · 22 L | +3.1wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +13.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb612…2df3backed Celtics | 55c | 45.45$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.45 | 51 | 49%25 W · 26 L | -4.5wins | -0.09per pick | 58cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xce49…4740backed Cavaliers | 46c | 43.48$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 236 | 42.4%100 W · 136 L | -3.9wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa632…b4f5backed Cavaliers | 47c | 31.91$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd3cf…3183backed Cavaliers | 49c | 30.61$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 70 | 52.9%37 W · 33 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Cavaliers (-4.5)this page
- Cavaliers vs. CelticsCeltics won
- Cavaliers vs. Celtics: 1H O/U 112.5Over won
- Cavaliers vs. Celtics: O/U 232.5Under won
- Cavaliers vs. Celtics: O/U 233.5Under won
- Cavaliers vs. Celtics: O/U 234.5Under won
- Spread: Cavaliers (-2.5)Celtics won
- Spread: Cavaliers (-3.5)Celtics won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.