NBA · resolved market

Spread: Cavaliers (-3.5)

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2fda810f5dbac59ada61f4ab07b6a38d4070f8df2888ef43d3ce34efc2790b2a

Rebuilt 7 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Celticsof Cavaliers, Celtics
Resolved: Oct 29, 2025, EDTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $91,146
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $91,696

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $91,146 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 63 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in NBA
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x16b2…a881backed Celtics	49c	19,892$9,758 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$10,134.18	2,298	51.7%1,188 W · 1,110 L	+65.4wins	+0.03per pick	49cpaid	+5.9%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3450…6793backed Cavaliers	52c	16,561$8,609 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$8,609.21	174	41.4%72 W · 102 L	-4.2wins	-0.02per pick	44cpaid	-5.8%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb083…b3f0backed Celtics	54c	12,500$6,750 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$5,750	202	48%97 W · 105 L	-8.1wins	-0.04per pick	52cpaid	-14%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x83b9…6124backed Cavaliers	49c	11,119$5,419 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$5,418.96	361	48.5%175 W · 186 L	-3.5wins	-0.01per pick	49cpaid	-4.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3cda…6e17backed Celtics	50c	9,979$4,989 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$4,989.37	88	43.2%38 W · 50 L	-6.0wins	-0.07per pick	50cpaid	-19%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0x74d3…0332backed Celtics	50c	8,813$4,432 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$4,380.62	346	45.4%157 W · 189 L	+8.3wins	+0.02per pick	43cpaid	-2.5%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7d5c…0182backed Celtics	50c	6,494$3,247 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$3,247	477	51.8%247 W · 230 L	+1.6wins	0.00per pick	51cpaid	-0.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x41b7…f6babacked Cavaliers	50c	4,000$2,000 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,000	801	46.4%372 W · 429 L	-1.3wins	0.00per pick	47cpaid	-1.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x5139…a8dbbacked Cavaliers	46c	3,844$1,779 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,779.29	698	52%363 W · 335 L	+10.3wins	+0.01per pick	51cpaid	+3.4%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0xee61…debfbacked Cavaliers	48c	2,750$1,314 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,314.09	9,722	49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L	-2.8wins	0.00per pick	49cpaid	-0.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xe895…c3dabacked Cavaliers	48c	2,452$1,177 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,177.08	79	39.2%31 W · 48 L	-1.6wins	-0.02per pick	41cpaid	+23.7%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4d45…9054backed Cavaliers	46c	2,140$984 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$984.29	300	53.3%160 W · 140 L	+9.2wins	+0.03per pick	50cpaid	+7.1%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6a32…0086backed Cavaliers	46c	2,104$968 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$967.82	1,332	51.2%682 W · 650 L	+7.9wins	+0.01per pick	51cpaid	+1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf800…f62dbacked Cavaliers	52c	2,077$1,080 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,080	83	47%39 W · 44 L	-6.8wins	-0.08per pick	55cpaid	-13.4%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0x9bff…6f0cbacked Cavaliers	50c	2,000$1,000 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,000	25	40%10 W · 15 L	-3.5wins	-0.14per pick	54cpaid	-30.3%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0xc7e5…2d3abacked Cavaliers	51c	1,624$828 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$828.48	653	39.5%258 W · 395 L	-24.6wins	-0.04per pick	43cpaid	-10.1%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0xde91…f20abacked Cavaliers	48c	1,500$720 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$720	157	45.2%71 W · 86 L	-3.9wins	-0.02per pick	48cpaid	-3%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xac0d…b006backed Celtics	52c	1,479$769 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$710.04	18	61.1%11 W · 7 L	+2.2wins	+0.12per pick	49cpaid	+24.9%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0x0a77…9d74backed Cavaliers	49c	1,454$712 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$712.27	1,139	48.3%550 W · 589 L	+3.5wins	0.00per pick	48cpaid	+0.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xd1bc…9dc9backed Cavaliers	51c	1,361$694 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$694	21	23.8%5 W · 16 L	-2.3wins	-0.11per pick	35cpaid	-29.2%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0xbb00…42e9backed Cavaliers	52c	1,346$700 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$700	44	54.5%24 W · 20 L	+0.5wins	+0.01per pick	53cpaid	+6.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Celtics	55c	1,273$700 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$572.73	2,736	46.7%1,277 W · 1,459 L	-67.4wins	-0.02per pick	49cpaid	-4.9%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x0989…4a26backed Cavaliers	51c	948.8$488 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$488.49	6	50%3 W · 3 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	50cpaid	+8.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Celtics	71c	765$543 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$222.15	8,988	47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L	+96.4wins	+0.01per pick	46cpaid	-5.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf2c2…4de7backed Cavaliers	50c	700$350 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$350	491	42.6%209 W · 282 L	+12.1wins	+0.02per pick	40cpaid	+9%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x900c…1d7abacked Cavaliers	50c	677.58$338 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$337.68	710	52.1%370 W · 340 L	+11.9wins	+0.02per pick	50cpaid	+3.7%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfeec…a84abacked Cavaliers	50c	600$300 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$300	118	43.2%51 W · 67 L	-5.0wins	-0.04per pick	47cpaid	-12.4%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x6884…6ccfbacked Cavaliers	51c	555.67$283 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$283.39	390	51.5%201 W · 189 L	-5.1wins	-0.01per pick	53cpaid	-3.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xaf38…a59bbacked Celtics	52c	489.98$256 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$233.79	418	48.3%202 W · 216 L	-7.0wins	-0.02per pick	50cpaid	-3.9%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe1a1…301fbacked Celtics	52c	482.69$250 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$232.69	7	71.4%5 W · 2 L	+0.7wins	+0.09per pick	62cpaid	+22.5%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2630…e941backed Cavaliers	54c	357.2$193 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$192.89	428	45.1%193 W · 235 L	-15.7wins	-0.04per pick	49cpaid	-8.3%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0xd04d…bfc2backed Cavaliers	49c	306$150 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$149.94	2,435	49.8%1,212 W · 1,223 L	+30.3wins	+0.01per pick	49cpaid	+2.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4df3…788fbacked Celtics	51c	233$118 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$114.77	6,213	50.6%3,142 W · 3,071 L	+53.8wins	+0.01per pick	50cpaid	+1.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc996…bb65backed Celtics	50c	209.84$106 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$104.2	471	44.2%208 W · 263 L	-10.1wins	-0.02per pick	46cpaid	+0.7%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa8f5…1caabacked Cavaliers	49c	201.97$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$99.8	801	48.3%387 W · 414 L	-3.3wins	0.00per pick	49cpaid	-0.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xefe8…fe1abacked Cavaliers	51c	200$102 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$102	93	41.9%39 W · 54 L	-4.8wins	-0.05per pick	47cpaid	-18.2%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x5bf4…952ebacked Cavaliers	50c	200$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	14	35.7%5 W · 9 L	-2.3wins	-0.16per pick	52cpaid	-30.4%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0x64db…325bbacked Cavaliers	51c	196.08$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	1,259	48.7%613 W · 646 L	+1.5wins	0.00per pick	49cpaid	-0.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xc3ec…e987backed Cavaliers	52c	192.31$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	563	48.5%273 W · 290 L	-7.1wins	-0.01per pick	50cpaid	-7.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x54ae…32c2backed Cavaliers	52c	190.63$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	76	53.9%41 W · 35 L	+1.3wins	+0.02per pick	52cpaid	+0.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4243…35d1backed Cavaliers	52c	189.98$99 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$98.79	19	36.8%7 W · 12 L	-2.8wins	-0.15per pick	51cpaid	-29.4%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0x561d…94bebacked Cavaliers	50c	176$88 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$88	137	54%74 W · 63 L	+4.4wins	+0.03per pick	51cpaid	+8.6%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xbf32…aecbbacked Cavaliers	49c	175.88$86 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$86.18	14	35.7%5 W · 9 L	-0.4wins	-0.03per pick	38cpaid	-9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe6e4…22ccbacked Cavaliers	50c	150$75 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$75	377	50.4%190 W · 187 L	+12.6wins	+0.03per pick	47cpaid	+8.5%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xdd57…a167backed Cavaliers	51c	147.06$75 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$75	14	50%7 W · 7 L	-0.4wins	-0.03per pick	53cpaid	-6.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5137…1556backed Celtics	48c	123.21$60 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$63.58	2,265	43.4%982 W · 1,283 L	-26.7wins	-0.01per pick	45cpaid	-4.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbb43…9d70backed Cavaliers	52c	115.38$60 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$60	89	36%32 W · 57 L	-6.7wins	-0.08per pick	44cpaid	-18.5%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0x661e…81d6backed Celtics	49c	102.04$50 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$52.04	157	59.9%94 W · 63 L	+9.5wins	+0.06per pick	54cpaid	+10.9%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0x45d1…7017backed Cavaliers	49c	100$49 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$49	354	47.7%169 W · 185 L	+7.0wins	+0.02per pick	46cpaid	+3.6%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x877e…d958backed Celtics	49c	100$49 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$51	39	46.2%18 W · 21 L	-0.3wins	-0.01per pick	47cpaid	-7.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xd88e…d1d0backed Cavaliers	51c	98.04$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	6	33.3%2 W · 4 L	-1.5wins	-0.25per pick	58cpaid	-53.6%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x27ca…2c36backed Celtics	57c	87.72$50 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$37.72	67	52.2%35 W · 32 L	-0.5wins	-0.01per pick	53cpaid	-0.3%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcdb1…eb96backed Celtics	56c	71.43$40 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$31.43	12	50%6 W · 6 L	-0.8wins	-0.07per pick	57cpaid	-15.7%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0xa42a…d91fbacked Cavaliers	51c	58.82$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30	623	47.5%296 W · 327 L	-17.3wins	-0.03per pick	50cpaid	-6.1%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x17e0…1e88backed Celtics	55c	53.2$29 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$23.94	264	39.4%104 W · 160 L	-1.7wins	-0.01per pick	40cpaid	+0.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7dd0…2b4bbacked Cavaliers	50c	41.26$21 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20.63	86	37.2%32 W · 54 L	-3.4wins	-0.04per pick	41cpaid	-26.1%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x71b1…ac2cbacked Cavaliers	50c	40$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	243	34.2%83 W · 160 L	+2.5wins	+0.01per pick	33cpaid	+9.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xaebb…4c67backed Cavaliers	51c	39.22$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	87	52.9%46 W · 41 L	-3.6wins	-0.04per pick	57cpaid	-10%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0xb4fd…41c1backed Cavaliers	52c	38.46$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	8	25%2 W · 6 L	-2.1wins	-0.27per pick	52cpaid	-52.7%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0xdc5b…f102backed Cavaliers	52c	34.7$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18.03	905	60.8%550 W · 355 L	-2.1wins	0.00per pick	61cpaid	-0.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xc376…a8e7backed Cavaliers	54c	27.78$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	317	48.9%155 W · 162 L	-12.1wins	-0.04per pick	53cpaid	-6.2%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x3c87…70d5backed Cavaliers	51c	27.45$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14	346	44.2%153 W · 193 L	-7.7wins	-0.02per pick	46cpaid	-3%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xfae5…f940backed Cavaliers	50c	20$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	395	48.4%191 W · 204 L	+2.8wins	+0.01per pick	48cpaid	+1.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Spread: Cavaliers (-3.5)this page
Cavaliers vs. CelticsCeltics won
Cavaliers vs. Celtics: 1H O/U 112.5Over won
Cavaliers vs. Celtics: O/U 232.5Under won
Cavaliers vs. Celtics: O/U 233.5Under won
Cavaliers vs. Celtics: O/U 234.5Under won
Spread: Cavaliers (-2.5)Celtics won
Spread: Cavaliers (-4.5)Celtics won

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Spread: Cavaliers (-3.5)

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event