Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 21°C on July 30?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x30eb9334dd8cfa06546895479d5aa067b3fb6278c3e1b0f20499a40c07b8d275
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $7,764
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $8,428
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,764 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 55 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd251…4d37backed Yes | 44c | 931.08$407 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$524.4 | 1,697 | 42.4%720 W · 977 L | +56.9wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 58c | 714.17$414 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$413.98 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe826…adb7backed Yes | 41c | 500$207 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$293.05 | 120 | 32.5%39 W · 81 L | +1.8wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x229c…b966backed No | 10c | 395.35$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.98 | 1,567 | 37.2%583 W · 984 L | +243.6wins | +0.16per pick | 22cpaid | +25.1%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked Yes | 45c | 372.5$167 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$205.63 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe712…9a10backed No | 47c | 348.26$163 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$163.06 | 868 | 47.7%414 W · 454 L | +40.7wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x019c…e8d2backed No | 55c | 199.99$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.79 | 565 | 43.5%246 W · 319 L | -31.8wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -12%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xec86…60e4backed Yes | 38c | 197.12$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122.62 | 1,163 | 38.2%444 W · 719 L | +19.4wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8383…cb59backed No | 75c | 166.34$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125.35 | 495 | 43.6%216 W · 279 L | +31.2wins | +0.06per pick | 37cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed No | 58c | 161.13$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.8 | 2,530 | 50.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L | -48.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 53c | 155.03$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.67 | 2,060 | 60%1,235 W · 825 L | +28.9wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a1b…6e41backed Yes | 53c | 140$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.79 | 143 | 34.3%49 W · 94 L | -2.9wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +57.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 29c | 136.38$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.27 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 57c | 110.52$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.31 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 28c | 106.21$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.29 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed Yes | 35c | 104.74$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.68 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6780…41ccbacked Yes | 71c | 100.45$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.94 | 270 | 51.1%138 W · 132 L | -13.3wins | -0.05per pick | 56cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7eb5…9400backed No | 55c | 100$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 527 | 58.8%310 W · 217 L | +13.2wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc15…cca6backed Yes | 46c | 94.98$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.29 | 264 | 41.3%109 W · 155 L | +5.7wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 59c | 85.13$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.98 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xec62…9191backed Yes | 36c | 82.47$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.47 | 1,102 | 40.7%448 W · 654 L | +18.7wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x44ec…082cbacked Yes | 37c | 79.38$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.65 | 70 | 35.7%25 W · 45 L | -2.3wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2d44…7023backed Yes | 58c | 73.27$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.14 | 56 | 80.4%45 W · 11 L | +17.3wins | +0.31per pick | 50cpaid | +102.1%equal weight | 74+0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xaff9…64ffbacked Yes | 40c | 60$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36 | 2,674 | 30%803 W · 1,871 L | +5.4wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x655c…4420backed No | 56c | 60$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.8 | 895 | 57.2%512 W · 383 L | +7.7wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5edc…bbadbacked No | 43c | 59.98$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.84 | 443 | 66.1%293 W · 150 L | +19.8wins | +0.04per pick | 62cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 60c | 55.81$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.56 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb615…62b9backed No | 56c | 50$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 605 | 50.7%307 W · 298 L | -15.0wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd338…9fd3backed No | 59c | 50$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.5 | 293 | 51.5%151 W · 142 L | -14.3wins | -0.05per pick | 56cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x19f4…c772backed Yes | 42c | 48$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.63 | 1,054 | 34.9%368 W · 686 L | +11.1wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc662…0927backed No | 57c | 44.11$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.14 | 1,190 | 57.9%689 W · 501 L | -5.0wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa738…a520backed Yes | 68c | 43.73$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.04 | 6 | 100%6 W · 0 L | +2.1wins | +0.34per pick | 66cpaid | +66.9%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7dcf…a7bdbacked No | 58c | 40$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.2 | 1,586 | 61.9%982 W · 604 L | +20.2wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d77…a694backed Yes | 41c | 40$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.6 | 1,160 | 57.3%665 W · 495 L | +20.1wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcb32…79aabacked Yes | 54c | 34.75$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.87 | 1,187 | 62.2%738 W · 449 L | +27.8wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 66c | 34.01$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.61 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xca75…0a64backed No | 60c | 32.82$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.82 | 1,010 | 58.1%587 W · 423 L | -34.0wins | -0.03per pick | 61cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5c38…f194backed No | 54c | 29.99$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.2 | 2,517 | 47.2%1,188 W · 1,329 L | +52.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8d85…726fbacked No | 59c | 29.41$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.35 | 399 | 56.6%226 W · 173 L | +12.7wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x04dc…d572backed Yes | 62c | 28.63$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.92 | 374 | 65.2%244 W · 130 L | +23.4wins | +0.06per pick | 59cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 55c | 26.22$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.51 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x3c18…32c3backed No | 61c | 25.77$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.81 | 1,043 | 62.9%656 W · 387 L | -11.9wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xffd0…cd07backed No | 57c | 24$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.68 | 2,311 | 57.7%1,334 W · 977 L | -19.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d17…32d8backed No | 62c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.3 | 136 | 55.1%75 W · 61 L | -13.4wins | -0.10per pick | 65cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x3901…9761backed No | 57c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.4 | 552 | 61.6%340 W · 212 L | -2.1wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfaf3…782cbacked No | 60c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.9 | 1,876 | 63%1,181 W · 695 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked No | 61c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.2 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa047…4ffabacked No | 62c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.45 | 760 | 59.2%450 W · 310 L | -15.6wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x188a…9fafbacked No | 58c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.55 | 196 | 62.2%122 W · 74 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdedd…17e1backed No | 58c | 19.63$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.35 | 2,432 | 60.4%1,470 W · 962 L | +30.2wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5927…ba9abacked No | 63c | 17.8$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.2 | 287 | 62.4%179 W · 108 L | +3.2wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb431…82ecbacked No | 66c | 16.12$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.72 | 297 | 69.4%206 W · 91 L | +5.3wins | +0.02per pick | 68cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd1c…3f79backed No | 69c | 15$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.35 | 493 | 59%291 W · 202 L | +8.3wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1894…a936backed Yes | 69c | 15$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.7 | 667 | 58%387 W · 280 L | +48.0wins | +0.07per pick | 51cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xba10…1653backed Yes | 75c | 14.08$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.55 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +30%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 21°C on July 30?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 19°C on July 30?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 20°C on July 30?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 22°C on July 30?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 23°C on July 30?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.