Europa Conference League · resolved market
FC Porto vs. Rangers FC: O/U 4.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x30f2302160891f30afcc50b4145786b18871b95ffb6b36be1cbcfca6181d44da
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Europa Conference Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $7,836
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $9,224
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,836 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 40 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Europa Conference League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Europa Conference League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 44c | 1,496$654 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$653.9 | 2,990 | 42.5%1,270 W · 1,720 L | +9.4wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3c5b…0584backed Under | 42c | 1,413$600 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$812.82 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | +2.1wins | +0.15per pick | 35cpaid | +46.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 65c | 1,064$692 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$371.49 | 3,726 | 47%1,750 W · 1,976 L | +20.0wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x13fa…3facbacked Over | 23c | 795.09$183 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$182.87 | 219 | 25.6%56 W · 163 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed Under | 52c | 526.82$276 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$250.74 | 769 | 41.9%322 W · 447 L | -8.2wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9d73…be4fbacked Over | 25c | 200$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 69 | 29%20 W · 49 L | -3.5wins | -0.05per pick | 34cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Under | 76c | 189.04$144 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.45 | 919 | 50.9%468 W · 451 L | +15.1wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x79b6…612ebacked Over | 63c | 187.56$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118.11 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -3.2wins | -0.23per pick | 59cpaid | -42.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa710…f1ccbacked Over | 23c | 173.91$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 152 | 24.3%37 W · 115 L | -6.9wins | -0.05per pick | 29cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x882f…f9febacked Under | 80c | 156$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.2 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.17per pick | 67cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcd03…1737backed Over | 65c | 140.49$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.32 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +19%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc9b9…f744backed Under | 79c | 129.11$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.11 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +26.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x363a…b79ebacked Over | 24c | 123$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.52 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -22.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf572…065abacked Under | 76c | 110$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.4 | 17 | 64.7%11 W · 6 L | +0.9wins | +0.06per pick | 59cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Over | 13c | 103.02$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.39 | 384 | 53.1%204 W · 180 L | +11.2wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7113…dba4backed Under | 62c | 80.65$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.65 | 266 | 47.4%126 W · 140 L | +2.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4f72…2fbfbacked Over | 76c | 70$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.45 | 23 | 47.8%11 W · 12 L | -3.1wins | -0.14per pick | 62cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6456…6c6cbacked Under | 76c | 65.44$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.44 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +30.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa244…545abacked Under | 77c | 64.94$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.94 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.21per pick | 71cpaid | -30.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2c46…dac9backed Over | 33c | 60.6$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.98 | 377 | 50.9%192 W · 185 L | +5.0wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd612…0bc1backed Under | 77c | 50.48$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.48 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.07per pick | 73cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x051b…09d4backed Under | 34c | 49.47$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.47 | 34 | 44.1%15 W · 19 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4e66…921dbacked Under | 78c | 47$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.34 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa8ae…7f3ebacked Over | 23c | 43.99$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.12 | 96 | 44.8%43 W · 53 L | +4.3wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5d43…fc99backed Under | 77c | 38.96$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.96 | 28 | 78.6%22 W · 6 L | +1.7wins | +0.06per pick | 73cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x309d…4287backed Over | 27c | 38.6$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.48 | 41 | 41.5%17 W · 24 L | -3.8wins | -0.09per pick | 51cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Under | 56c | 37.63$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.55 | 351 | 58.1%204 W · 147 L | +3.2wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd568…655ebacked Under | 76c | 33$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.92 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -1.6wins | -0.16per pick | 66cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8e34…4480backed Under | 68c | 31.2$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.98 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.10per pick | 50cpaid | -42.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfee4…d386backed Under | 77c | 30$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.9 | 86 | 60.5%52 W · 34 L | +4.5wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x97bf…b669backed Over | 61c | 28.59$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.48 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | -1.4wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaebc…bb17backed Under | 76c | 25$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.09per pick | 75cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Under | 79c | 24$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.04 | 1,573 | 55.7%876 W · 697 L | +25.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Under | 76c | 23.66$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.68 | 129 | 55.8%72 W · 57 L | -4.1wins | -0.03per pick | 59cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6835…1976backed Under | 77c | 21.26$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.89 | 195 | 46.2%90 W · 105 L | -3.0wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6468…e03dbacked Under | 76c | 18$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.32 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | +17.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf33d…1969backed Under | 76c | 18$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.32 | 10 | 80%8 W · 2 L | +1.6wins | +0.16per pick | 64cpaid | +25.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa4d0…9b74backed Under | 76c | 17$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.08 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6393…dde9backed Under | 76c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.6 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.11per pick | 61cpaid | -29.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x68cc…24adbacked Under | 76c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.6 | 9 | 88.9%8 W · 1 L | +2.7wins | +0.29per pick | 59cpaid | +46.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Europa Conference League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- FC Porto vs. Rangers FC: O/U 4.5this page
- FC Porto vs. Rangers FC: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- FC Porto vs. Rangers FC: O/U 1.5Over won
- FC Porto vs. Rangers FC: O/U 2.5Over won
- FC Porto vs. Rangers FC: O/U 3.5Over won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.