MLB · resolved market
Spread: Seattle Mariners (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x30f5b99f6e432744e2edc3ddeef1effe69a2f6a231f1177b63e90fd38af05355
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Seattle Marinersof Seattle Mariners, Colorado Rockies
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $13,831
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $15,567
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $13,831 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 24 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7fb7…e33dbacked Colorado Rockies | 43c | 6,471$2,796 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,796.16 | 1,328 | 51.4%682 W · 646 L | +25.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3672…edbdbacked Colorado Rockies | 48c | 5,000$2,400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,400 | 91 | 46.2%42 W · 49 L | -11.7wins | -0.13per pick | 59cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x3151…0977backed Seattle Mariners | 52c | 4,415$2,296 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,119.2 | 153 | 53.6%82 W · 71 L | +9.1wins | +0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x016e…c700backed Seattle Mariners | 57c | 2,533$1,444 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,089.33 | 241 | 54.4%131 W · 110 L | -3.6wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe216…7448backed Seattle Mariners | 57c | 1,754$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$754.39 | 1,213 | 40.5%491 W · 722 L | -32.1wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xae81…f04bbacked Seattle Mariners | 56c | 734.36$411 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$323.12 | 378 | 57.4%217 W · 161 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8511…4a6bbacked Seattle Mariners | 52c | 514.96$266 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$248.78 | 436 | 54.8%239 W · 197 L | +8.6wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6692…1125backed Seattle Mariners | 57c | 400$228 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$172 | 132 | 42.4%56 W · 76 L | -14.0wins | -0.11per pick | 53cpaid | -22%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x5d5e…7004backed Seattle Mariners | 57c | 380$218 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$162.2 | 217 | 67.7%147 W · 70 L | +36.1wins | +0.17per pick | 51cpaid | +27.7%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x7c7d…423fbacked Seattle Mariners | 56c | 300$170 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$130.5 | 111 | 41.4%46 W · 65 L | +2.2wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc3ec…e987backed Seattle Mariners | 56c | 232.14$130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.14 | 613 | 46.3%284 W · 329 L | +7.3wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c85…77c6backed Seattle Mariners | 56c | 200$112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88 | 927 | 54.9%509 W · 418 L | -19.1wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2129…4222backed Colorado Rockies | 39c | 150$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.5 | 784 | 45.3%355 W · 429 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x45d1…7017backed Colorado Rockies | 50c | 100$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 197 | 47.2%93 W · 104 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | 0%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf92…4bfdbacked Colorado Rockies | 50c | 81.73$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.81 | 87 | 49.4%43 W · 44 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3853…a3d3backed Seattle Mariners | 50c | 80$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40 | 98 | 63.3%62 W · 36 L | +8.1wins | +0.08per pick | 55cpaid | +14.7%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xdf2e…ddecbacked Seattle Mariners | 54c | 63.7$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.3 | 1,530 | 50.5%772 W · 758 L | +20.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5530…d38dbacked Seattle Mariners | 56c | 50$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22 | 2,203 | 50.3%1,108 W · 1,095 L | +29.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbe3c…a835backed Seattle Mariners | 56c | 50$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22 | 161 | 57.1%92 W · 69 L | +7.8wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8725…eb10backed Seattle Mariners | 57c | 47.37$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.37 | 159 | 49.1%78 W · 81 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1bfd…3462backed Colorado Rockies | 46c | 44.97$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.86 | 104 | 51.9%54 W · 50 L | +2.9wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5340…5e2bbacked Seattle Mariners | 56c | 44.64$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.64 | 130 | 47.7%62 W · 68 L | -6.6wins | -0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5139…a8dbbacked Seattle Mariners | 50c | 35$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.5 | 631 | 52.6%332 W · 299 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9ac7…597ebacked Seattle Mariners | 56c | 26.79$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.79 | 49 | 49%24 W · 25 L | -2.3wins | -0.05per pick | 54cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Seattle Mariners (-1.5)this page
- Colorado Rockies vs. Seattle Mariners: O/U 8.5Under won
- Rockies vs. MarinersMariners won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.