Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 26°C on May 17?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x30f6b5e4f6cedfbf27ee0937bcfc27d887d481f2e43fa8cae4a186cbc9bf5765
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $5,483
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $6,106
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,483 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 37 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x3dd3…ccacbacked Yes | 31c | 543.93$167 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$167.18 | 346 | 24.3%84 W · 262 L | +7.0wins | +0.02per pick | 22cpaid | +21.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2851…6b8cbacked Yes | 20c | 209.98$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.92 | 683 | 38.8%265 W · 418 L | +36.1wins | +0.05per pick | 34cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6fb1…9319backed Yes | 5c | 200$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 496 | 22.2%110 W · 386 L | +26.1wins | +0.05per pick | 17cpaid | +22.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd209…8dbabacked Yes | 25c | 173$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.17 | 67 | 52.2%35 W · 32 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf5da…27b7backed Yes | 34c | 122.74$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.93 | 60 | 53.3%32 W · 28 L | +4.0wins | +0.07per pick | 47cpaid | +28%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9382…dd19backed Yes | 13c | 110.56$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.68 | 85 | 15.3%13 W · 72 L | -4.4wins | -0.05per pick | 20cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf73f…ee53backed No | 71c | 100$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29 | 2,950 | 33.6%992 W · 1,958 L | +9.9wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | +4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x32d6…a8f5backed Yes | 30c | 99.99$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 110 | 32.7%36 W · 74 L | -6.1wins | -0.06per pick | 38cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa493…1b55backed Yes | 30c | 90.53$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.61 | 269 | 33.1%89 W · 180 L | +21.8wins | +0.08per pick | 25cpaid | +71.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3690…e16fbacked No | 74c | 89$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.7 | 767 | 55.4%425 W · 342 L | +40.7wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a6…1507backed No | 71c | 81.81$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24 | 2,626 | 54%1,418 W · 1,208 L | -56.4wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x83ce…835cbacked Yes | 31c | 72$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.96 | 90 | 17.8%16 W · 74 L | -6.6wins | -0.07per pick | 25cpaid | -39.2%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xaf17…5c20backed Yes | 21c | 71.92$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.9 | 1,787 | 25.7%460 W · 1,327 L | +132.5wins | +0.07per pick | 18cpaid | +50.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x865d…47aabacked Yes | 32c | 70$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.4 | 164 | 32.9%54 W · 110 L | +12.7wins | +0.08per pick | 25cpaid | +47.1%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xebf0…2330backed Yes | 31c | 66.78$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.89 | 410 | 51.7%212 W · 198 L | +24.9wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd9b6…cc7bbacked No | 70c | 60$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.1 | 32 | 40.6%13 W · 19 L | +1.6wins | +0.05per pick | 36cpaid | +19.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 74c | 59.99$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.9 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaf38…c19ebacked Yes | 34c | 58.71$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 612 | 49.5%303 W · 309 L | +30.2wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed No | 70c | 58.39$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.64 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x87c6…58f9backed Yes | 25c | 53.56$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.39 | 110 | 19.1%21 W · 89 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 18cpaid | +23%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc484…c9d1backed Yes | 27c | 51.92$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | +0.6wins | +0.05per pick | 26cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x306d…7a38backed Yes | 22c | 50$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.82 | 667 | 35.4%236 W · 431 L | +14.2wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 79c | 49.68$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.55 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x11fc…8262backed Yes | 32c | 49.19$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.74 | 379 | 42.2%160 W · 219 L | -14.0wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4174…18fabacked No | 70c | 43.84$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13 | 1,079 | 61.2%660 W · 419 L | -5.7wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0f8…fcf6backed No | 70c | 35$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.5 | 113 | 63.7%72 W · 41 L | -3.7wins | -0.03per pick | 67cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 66c | 34.53$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.61 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 69c | 30$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.3 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfa65…18a8backed No | 70c | 24.03$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.21 | 80 | 63.8%51 W · 29 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5848…1e49backed No | 64c | 22$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.9 | 863 | 62.9%543 W · 320 L | -1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5de8…3eddbacked No | 69c | 19$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.89 | 461 | 48.8%225 W · 236 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6409…9411backed No | 70c | 18.69$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.69 | 825 | 62.2%513 W · 312 L | -23.9wins | -0.03per pick | 65cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1632…ad5abacked No | 70c | 17.03$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.04 | 502 | 61%306 W · 196 L | -17.9wins | -0.04per pick | 65cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 70c | 16$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.8 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9410…9160backed No | 67c | 15$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 420 | 49%206 W · 214 L | -15.9wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf910…5912backed No | 70c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.5 | 45 | 71.1%32 W · 13 L | +5.1wins | +0.11per pick | 60cpaid | +28.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x958a…9f65backed No | 74c | 14.99$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.9 | 558 | 55.2%308 W · 250 L | -10.0wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 26°C on May 17?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 23°C on May 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 24°C on May 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 25°C on May 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 27°C on May 17?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 28°C on May 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 29°C on May 17?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.