Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 66-67°F on April 6?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3103c7b3b8b7077039152ab5827d2adeb5d876b64b65a8d70f7640e8347dfd76
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $18,163
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $21,294
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $18,163 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 49 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x072f…86b1backed No | 2c | 571.23$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.24 | 111 | 51.4%57 W · 54 L | -8.0wins | -0.07per pick | 59cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 44c | 338.38$148 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$148.4 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 12c | 310.93$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$274.61 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x51fd…4272backed No | 32c | 299.98$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.99 | 99 | 19.2%19 W · 80 L | +5.5wins | +0.06per pick | 14cpaid | +84.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0a18…364cbacked No | 65c | 250$163 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$162.5 | 89 | 46.1%41 W · 48 L | +3.5wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4add…6fe5backed Yes | 23c | 248.8$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$192.1 | 1,452 | 36.8%534 W · 918 L | +12.3wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x82f3…9f82backed Yes | 76c | 228.49$173 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.89 | 1,455 | 24.7%359 W · 1,096 L | -33.3wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 14c | 218.07$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$186.98 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Yes | 42c | 202.85$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$118.32 | 1,840 | 37%681 W · 1,159 L | -8.2wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd80a…c714backed Yes | 14c | 190.87$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$163.47 | 1,977 | 18.8%371 W · 1,606 L | +8.0wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x01a6…59b0backed Yes | 14c | 184.28$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$157.95 | 1,679 | 61.7%1,036 W · 643 L | +6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xae68…064abacked Yes | 15c | 151.61$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$129.37 | 2,555 | 63.8%1,631 W · 924 L | +38.4wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaff9…64ffbacked Yes | 15c | 140.6$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$119.66 | 2,674 | 30%803 W · 1,871 L | +5.4wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 61c | 134.61$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.11 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa81a…dce9backed Yes | 35c | 131.8$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.1 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | -3.9wins | -0.30per pick | 45cpaid | -67.1%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x1e52…91d6backed No | 29c | 121.27$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.68 | 605 | 23.3%141 W · 464 L | -21.1wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf6f7…e0dabacked Yes | 20c | 120.66$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.59 | 1,861 | 23.8%443 W · 1,418 L | +47.9wins | +0.03per pick | 21cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3319…977abacked Yes | 15c | 100$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85 | 264 | 26.9%71 W · 193 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3d14…ee01backed Yes | 22c | 99.99$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.99 | 40 | 37.5%15 W · 25 L | -3.7wins | -0.09per pick | 47cpaid | -28%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 62c | 99.2$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.78 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7d8d…a96cbacked Yes | 21c | 97.46$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.32 | 810 | 29.1%236 W · 574 L | -14.4wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0b87…9414backed No | 30c | 93.03$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.75 | 2,001 | 38.4%768 W · 1,233 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaa28…090bbacked Yes | 15c | 92.4$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.18 | 2,239 | 15%335 W · 1,904 L | +54.6wins | +0.02per pick | 13cpaid | +24%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 17c | 90.33$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.95 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1a06…15a9backed Yes | 25c | 81.76$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.65 | 567 | 21.3%121 W · 446 L | -25.2wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x331b…193fbacked Yes | 66c | 78.94$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.84 | 900 | 40.7%366 W · 534 L | +112.3wins | +0.12per pick | 28cpaid | +63.8%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xd670…1e02backed Yes | 79c | 75.71$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.96 | 222 | 65.8%146 W · 76 L | -4.4wins | -0.02per pick | 68cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb242…eb89backed Yes | 69c | 75.39$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.1 | 81 | 49.4%40 W · 41 L | -8.3wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1941…deeabacked Yes | 70c | 74.72$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.42 | 1,072 | 36.6%392 W · 680 L | +25.9wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd38…ddadbacked No | 78c | 74.05$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.53 | 254 | 49.2%125 W · 129 L | -8.5wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbc6f…f0f0backed No | 17c | 63.79$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.84 | 41 | 9.8%4 W · 37 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -38.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8e61…eaeebacked No | 78c | 62.37$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.92 | 33 | 54.5%18 W · 15 L | -1.6wins | -0.05per pick | 60cpaid | -23.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0990…7e5cbacked Yes | 17c | 62$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.54 | 23 | 43.5%10 W · 13 L | +2.4wins | +0.11per pick | 33cpaid | +15.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3e2b…3d17backed No | 80c | 58.62$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.9 | 87 | 62.1%54 W · 33 L | +2.6wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ca6…4b74backed Yes | 41c | 56.83$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.74 | 118 | 33.1%39 W · 79 L | -7.7wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -26%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 51c | 55.7$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.51 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8842…dfa7backed Yes | 47c | 51.28$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.14 | 452 | 36.5%165 W · 287 L | +20.0wins | +0.04per pick | 32cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 49.98$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.99 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x35c4…d144backed Yes | 31c | 48.3$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.32 | 1,255 | 62.5%785 W · 470 L | +99.5wins | +0.08per pick | 55cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x0b90…08e7backed Yes | 74c | 44.06$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.36 | 135 | 54.8%74 W · 61 L | -6.9wins | -0.05per pick | 60cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf51b…ca1bbacked No | 31c | 40$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 1,274 | 34%433 W · 841 L | +46.9wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd082…b5e8backed Yes | 62c | 39.08$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.04 | 55 | 56.4%31 W · 24 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4184…c863backed No | 50c | 38.08$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.04 | 899 | 51.6%464 W · 435 L | -40.0wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc4f4…65ddbacked No | 74c | 35.06$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.95 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.15per pick | 48cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4973…5527backed Yes | 76c | 31.82$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.61 | 300 | 46.7%140 W · 160 L | -8.4wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd4f0…5d25backed Yes | 72c | 21.82$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.11 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 63cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked No | 66c | 20.65$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.54 | 1,991 | 52.3%1,042 W · 949 L | -76.1wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1efd…2cbdbacked No | 80c | 19.8$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.84 | 49 | 55.1%27 W · 22 L | -2.9wins | -0.06per pick | 61cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7c84…88f3backed Yes | 66c | 16.08$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.5 | 26 | 57.7%15 W · 11 L | +2.0wins | +0.08per pick | 50cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 66-67°F on April 6?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be 76°F or higher on April 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 60-61°F on April 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 62-63°F on April 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 64-65°F on April 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 68-69°F on April 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 70-71°F on April 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 72-73°F on April 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 74-75°F on April 6?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.