Token Launches · resolved market
LayerZero airdrop by April?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3131318147433b10079e4aaf01eca793698f434741bd0ed43af73fd50286b520
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Token Launchesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $139,682
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $126,902
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $139,682 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 47 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Token Launches is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Token Launches | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x3cf3…87b3backed Yes | 10c | 29,412$2,855 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,854.96 | 39 | 2.6%1 W · 38 L | -4.5wins | -0.12per pick | 14cpaid | -96.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6af7…0ff1backed No | 68c | 11,787$7,968 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,818.72 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.14per pick | 46cpaid | -1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7789…f823backed Yes | 33c | 8,714$2,910 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,910.36 | 53 | 15.1%8 W · 45 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -52.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x64ae…d9e7backed Yes | 29c | 7,618$2,194 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,193.68 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.14per pick | 19cpaid | +93.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6fdb…c95abacked Yes | 3c | 3,834$133 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$133.1 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x209c…d319backed Yes | 10c | 3,758$377 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$377.24 | 21 | 33.3%7 W · 14 L | +0.9wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a18…f689backed Yes | 40c | 3,010$1,204 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,204 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x39b2…c7bfbacked Yes | 24c | 2,885$693 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$692.92 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x685b…d4b4backed Yes | 2c | 2,525$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.49 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9d84…1344backed Yes | 30c | 1,775$541 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$540.66 | 67 | 13.4%9 W · 58 L | -2.8wins | -0.04per pick | 18cpaid | -74.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x24c8…23e1backed Yes | 1c | 1,500$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.2 | 84 | 8.3%7 W · 77 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 11cpaid | -29.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd42f…047dbacked Yes | 22c | 1,492$326 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$325.54 | 56 | 17.9%10 W · 46 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -68.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd0cd…7014backed No | 60c | 964.06$575 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$389.2 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | -1.8wins | -0.11per pick | 43cpaid | -47.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3ae5…f868backed Yes | 36c | 954.94$345 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$344.7 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0599…a395backed No | 68c | 854.52$585 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$269.35 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.15per pick | 52cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xda19…b9e1backed Yes | 55c | 851.71$466 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$466.39 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.55per pick | 55cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc893…2089backed Yes | 2c | 721.68$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.43 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.6wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xecc3…d1c4backed Yes | 33c | 601.05$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.26per pick | 24cpaid | +232.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa82a…be8cbacked Yes | 33c | 597.06$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 20 | 20%4 W · 16 L | -1.2wins | -0.06per pick | 26cpaid | -59.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4337…8882backed No | 74c | 565.71$420 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$145.81 | 118 | 33.9%40 W · 78 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -36.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1801…f2cbbacked Yes | 38c | 530.65$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4825…007dbacked Yes | 26c | 385$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.1 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.24per pick | 42cpaid | +32.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3c7e…fcdfbacked Yes | 28c | 357.14$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3077…02b3backed No | 62c | 333$206 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$126.54 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.38per pick | 62cpaid | +61.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2e00…9064backed Yes | 37c | 311.37$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116.56 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x117e…659cbacked Yes | 39c | 256.41$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -24%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x770e…a10dbacked Yes | 28c | 251.54$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.43 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -1.3wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3cb9…bc4bbacked No | 44c | 226.55$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$127.01 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.09per pick | 24cpaid | -24.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1c3c…8f25backed Yes | 42c | 191.74$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.42 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -1.6wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x13a2…7967backed Yes | 30c | 167.8$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.34 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -1.2wins | -0.15per pick | 27cpaid | -76.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb2ef…da30backed Yes | 54c | 150$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.7 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.6wins | -0.53per pick | 53cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xab30…0495backed No | 71c | 137.76$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.95 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +40.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4286…df49backed Yes | 35c | 100$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xde79…06abbacked Yes | 26c | 96.73$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 47 | 21.3%10 W · 37 L | -2.4wins | -0.05per pick | 26cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x84fe…70a6backed No | 63c | 79.37$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.37 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.37per pick | 63cpaid | +58.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc9eb…25afbacked Yes | 49c | 78.55$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.49 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x07dd…a8bdbacked Yes | 64c | 58.26$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.07 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | +27.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1759…c0d9backed Yes | 38c | 55.26$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a44…953cbacked Yes | 49c | 41.17$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbce1…79bfbacked No | 73c | 41.1$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.1 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +37%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1a0f…a073backed Yes | 50c | 40.28$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd8c6…9261backed Yes | 47c | 40$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.8 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.47per pick | 47cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2650…8726backed Yes | 48c | 39.58$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.48per pick | 48cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x26cd…b643backed Yes | 49c | 38.78$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3a24…1566backed Yes | 49c | 36.73$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x42f0…92e0backed Yes | 46c | 30.28$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.04 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.46per pick | 46cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd34d…3b24backed No | 78c | 13.37$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.94 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Token Launches and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.