MLB · resolved market
Spread: Cleveland Guardians (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x315a447923ab81ee8ea26b0b966774681fcc8c93ff6d336a261a22305255de4d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Detroit Tigersof Cleveland Guardians, Detroit Tigers
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $96,798
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $90,950
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $96,798 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 22 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x3cda…6e17backed Cleveland Guardians | 34c | 58,633$19,935 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19,935.33 | 94 | 62.8%59 W · 35 L | +11.0wins | +0.12per pick | 51cpaid | +22.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xc996…bb65backed Detroit Tigers | 66c | 37,208$24,557 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12,650.61 | 141 | 53.9%76 W · 65 L | +8.5wins | +0.06per pick | 48cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xebc0…fa41backed Detroit Tigers | 66c | 10,943$7,222 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,720.54 | 171 | 56.1%96 W · 75 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3672…edbdbacked Cleveland Guardians | 36c | 10,000$3,607 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,607 | 91 | 46.2%42 W · 49 L | -11.7wins | -0.13per pick | 59cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x2d0f…4faabacked Detroit Tigers | 64c | 10,000$6,400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,600 | 302 | 55.6%168 W · 134 L | +14.5wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +10%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbb6a…1a00backed Detroit Tigers | 65c | 3,068$1,994 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,074.1 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +1.1wins | +0.08per pick | 53cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8753…85adbacked Detroit Tigers | 63c | 2,120$1,336 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$783.8 | 1,909 | 53.5%1,021 W · 888 L | +29.1wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Cleveland Guardians | 18c | 2,084$382 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$381.89 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc8b4…f05dbacked Cleveland Guardians | 35c | 1,036$363 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$362.65 | 418 | 50%209 W · 209 L | +6.4wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb852…bfaebacked Cleveland Guardians | 35c | 999.58$350 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$349.78 | 240 | 40.8%98 W · 142 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8511…4a6bbacked Cleveland Guardians | 36c | 700$252 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$252 | 436 | 54.8%239 W · 197 L | +8.6wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe182…a6e2backed Cleveland Guardians | 35c | 591.08$209 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$209 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -1.4wins | -0.12per pick | 45cpaid | -32.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcb43…3c74backed Detroit Tigers | 65c | 500$325 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$175 | 34 | 58.8%20 W · 14 L | +2.1wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7fb7…e33dbacked Detroit Tigers | 72c | 94.18$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.43 | 1,328 | 51.4%682 W · 646 L | +25.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x17e0…1e88backed Cleveland Guardians | 36c | 60$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.6 | 544 | 41.2%224 W · 320 L | -22.6wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -10%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Detroit Tigers | 65c | 57.14$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 2,470 | 52.5%1,296 W · 1,174 L | +17.7wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4d89…9ddfbacked Cleveland Guardians | 35c | 57.14$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +1.1wins | +0.14per pick | 48cpaid | +32.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2129…4222backed Detroit Tigers | 70c | 42.96$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.7 | 784 | 45.3%355 W · 429 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x28a1…435cbacked Detroit Tigers | 65c | 40$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14 | 28 | 53.6%15 W · 13 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbc02…958abacked Cleveland Guardians | 36c | 30$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 59 | 35.6%21 W · 38 L | -3.4wins | -0.06per pick | 41cpaid | -33%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5def…fd63backed Detroit Tigers | 68c | 22.06$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.06 | 20 | 40%8 W · 12 L | -3.1wins | -0.15per pick | 55cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x20e3…d1bdbacked Detroit Tigers | 66c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.8 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -49.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Cleveland Guardians (-1.5)this page
- Detroit Tigers vs. Cleveland Guardians: O/U 7.5Over won
- Tigers vs. GuardiansTigers won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.